2023 UK Local Elections

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Also will be interesting to see the Labour result in councils where their main opposition is Lib Dem/Green/Indy to see if the Labour brand has recovered on its own rather than stayed the same as Tories fall off a cliff. I expect, say, Middlesbrough to be a relatively easy puck up from Indies, but a strong result for Labour in councils like Sheffield, Hull, Brighton, Stockport, Redcar and York would be an indicator of their regrowth. I notice Jason Zadrozny is in legal trouble in Ashfield, but what else is new?

Also of interest: certain areas (mainly Midlands) of Red Wall where Labour decline seemed terminal - Stoke is the most obvious example? Also Leicester might be an interesting test to see if there is some Sunak effect for Hindus, especially with the recent clashes. Oh yeah, and the big Bournemouth unitary is up: will be interesting to see if Labour can get more of an in-road in the city.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64722070

This has a risk of being a major  up - lots of people don't seem to be aware of the new ID laws and may end up with no valid ID in time for the elections.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64722070

This has a risk of being a major  up - lots of people don't seem to be aware of the new ID laws and may end up with no valid ID in time for the elections.

In theory it shouldn't have that much of an effect, 32 million voted in the last G.E. , so 2 million is not that high and I suspect that most of them usually don't vote anyway.

But if they voted they would probably be Labour voters and that's the controversy, could shave at max.5 points of a Labour lead, but probably only half of that.

The next election though is unlikely to be a close one at this point.

I'm thinking more people literally turning up in May not knowing about the ID requirements (this thread is about the local elections) and causing confusion and rancor. I would also not be sure about this mostly hurting Labour - it's often older voters (especially women) who do not carry valid ID.

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If they lose 2000 seats, the only conclusion we can draw is that the Tories are heading towards an extinction level event. (I.e. don't get your hopes up).

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Results from Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (probably the  most Tory historically urban conurbation in the country)

Lib Dem 27 (+12)
Conservative 12 (-24)
Labour 11 (+8)
Christchurch Independents 8 (-)
Independents 6 (+3)
Green 5 (+3)
Poole People 5 (-2)
Poole Engage 2 (+2)
(Alliance for Local Living -1
UKIP -1)

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The Greens are now the largest party on Folkestone & Hythe Council, with Labour second. Not exactly a place one associates with ecological and/or socialist politics.

It will be interesting to see how the Greens as an organization will deal with potentially having a more small c conservative, older and parochial electorate/councillors than the stereotype of its cadre - I don't think the media seems to have realised this either.

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I don't really see any causes for future alarm. The wards Labour are picking up are either recoveries from Brexit era damage, natural swing territory or areas where people had longrunning thoughts about unrealised Labour potential - Bournemouth seats come to mind. (Bear in mind, I haven't done a deep dive on wtf wards, so there are probably a handful of random seats with freak Labour results).

It will be interesting to see whether Labour can maintain its beachhead in Kent, for example, but this is not a novel issue for a political party.

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And the next batch of councilors up is the 2021 crop, which if nothing else was a Conservative wave...

I imagine the 2020 council cohort will fall back into its standard cycle pattern, after a 3 year mandate instead of 4?

Looking at the 2016-2021 results, despite the mini Tory ripple that year, it's slim pickings for Labour: not even a dozen targets.
Dudley, Solihull, Sheffield, Stockport, Wirral, Walsall, Northumberland, Southampton, Plymouth, Derby, Corwall... is there much hope for anything else?

Ousting Andy Street and Ben Houchem will probably be up there as goals. Also (don't laugh) there will be the PCC elections in 2024, which will at least show a result in every single county (although Tory incumbents may be partially helped by the return to fptp and the fact that nobody cares enough about PCCs to bother tactical voting).

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11632853/Tory-councillor-gave-details-Britain-Nato-Communist-Czech-spies-Cold-War.html

New tory leader of Slough lmao