Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[QAnonKelly]

Deal’s going to be teaching at UGA after he leaves office
https://www.ajc.com/news/local-education/gov-deal-teach-uga/bvc4SqKXzbrTyI3LoMnGSI/

[Adam Griffin]

When you say her in this second paragraph, do you mean Abrams?

I guess that leads me to question asked you if Abrams was / is such in a brace of a****** who's Rob most of her legislative colleagues the wrong way, how did she ever wind up minority leader?

Yes.

As far as how she got the job, I don't know. I got involved with local politics roughly around the same time she was elected Minority Leader; never bothered to ask around about how that transpired. She's certainly capable and qualified, so perhaps that cancelled out other concerns in a chamber where Democrats were at their nadir.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

When you say her in this second paragraph, do you mean Abrams?

I guess that leads me to question asked you if Abrams was / is such in a brace of a****** who's Rob most of her legislative colleagues the wrong way, how did she ever wind up minority leader?

Yes.

As far as how she got the job, I don't know. I got involved with local politics roughly around the same time she was elected Minority Leader; never bothered to ask around about how that transpired. She's certainly capable and qualified, so perhaps that cancelled out other concerns in a chamber where Democrats were at their nadir.

Do you think there’s anyone who could realistically beat Perdue in 2020 without a runoff or are we still too far from that point?  Abrams seems like someone who would do much worse in a Senate race, but Barrow and her both showed we need someone who can bring some extra votes to the table on their own.  I kinda wish Jason Carter ran for LG because while he’d have lost, it’d be an interesting test of whether a strong white candidate from the Atlanta-metro would run ahead or behind Abrams in the Atlanta suburbs.  Thoughts?

[Rookie Yinzer]

When you say her in this second paragraph, do you mean Abrams?

I guess that leads me to question asked you if Abrams was / is such in a brace of a****** who's Rob most of her legislative colleagues the wrong way, how did she ever wind up minority leader?

Yes.

As far as how she got the job, I don't know. I got involved with local politics roughly around the same time she was elected Minority Leader; never bothered to ask around about how that transpired. She's certainly capable and qualified, so perhaps that cancelled out other concerns in a chamber where Democrats were at their nadir.

I think no one wanted it. LOL. Why they kept re-electing her? She knew how to get stuff done, helped kill the GOP supermajority in the House (or prevented it entirely, I forget) and outmaneuver Republicans. Just like when she defeated an abortion bill by one vote by convincing a Republican to defect because the bill didn’t go far enough to restrict abortion.

[QAnonKelly]

When you say her in this second paragraph, do you mean Abrams?

I guess that leads me to question asked you if Abrams was / is such in a brace of a****** who's Rob most of her legislative colleagues the wrong way, how did she ever wind up minority leader?

Yes.

As far as how she got the job, I don't know. I got involved with local politics roughly around the same time she was elected Minority Leader; never bothered to ask around about how that transpired. She's certainly capable and qualified, so perhaps that cancelled out other concerns in a chamber where Democrats were at their nadir.

Do you think there’s anyone who could realistically beat Perdue in 2020 without a runoff or are we still too far from that point?  Abrams seems like someone who would do much worse in a Senate race, but Barrow and her both showed we need someone who can bring some extra votes to the table on their own.  I kinda wish Jason Carter ran for LG because while he’d have lost, it’d be an interesting test of whether a strong white candidate from the Atlanta-metro would run ahead or behind Abrams in the Atlanta suburbs.  Thoughts?

I personally think that the 2020 senate seat is a reach bc of the runoff. I don’t see us winning a senate seat until Isakson retires in 22. I’d rather Abrams wait for a governor rematch then bc I just don’t see how Kemp is able to win again and she’s said she’d rather be an executive than a legislator. Thankfully there’s lots of young talent in the state but I think 22 will be the year that damn breaks

[Adam Griffin]

Finally: my years-old project has been updated, with 2018's results by precinct added to the animated GIF!

(You can right-click & open for a huge version that allows inspection of even the smallest precincts on the map)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1083765589238267905

[nolesfan2011]

Abrams met with Schumer and Cortez Masto yesterday about running for Senate. I don't see her saying no to DC

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m not in favor of an Abrams Senate run AT ALL. Hope she stays out.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Abrams met with Schumer and Cortez Masto yesterday about running for Senate. I don't see her saying no to DC

I see the voters saying no to her going to DC.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Changes recommended to Georgia's voting systems: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/voting-changes-recommended-georgia-lawmakers/D9DFmwyJh5JeZPeFxHSaKJ/.

Some pretty good ones in there.

[Doimper]

Finally: my years-old project has been updated, with 2018's results by precinct added to the animated GIF!

(You can right-click & open for a huge version that allows inspection of even the smallest precincts on the map)

It's neat seeing Atlanta slowly creep outwards.

[QAnonKelly]

I hope Abrams sits out the senate contest this go around

[Adam Griffin]

Maybe I'm in the minority, but at the onset, I would have been much more supportive of an Abrams Senate run than a run for Governor (it made more sense, and in retrospect - if you're likely to lose - a polarizing figure running for a polarizing office is better than a polarizing figure running for a less polarized office; see my past Gov precinct maps above).

However, now that things have played out the way they have, I think it's a bad idea for her to start up another campaign almost immediately after her last, and for a different office to boot. I know how polarization works in the state, but it's worth noting that in the metro, polarization was arguably weaker this go around than it has been in a long time. I say this because her post-Election Night behavior actually did sour a meaningful number of people on her who voted for her (the exact types who'd be lean Perdue starting out).

I think people need some time to cool down and forget about her and/or what they dislike about her if she's to be successful statewide. I sincerely doubt GA's voting demographics will change all that much between 2018-2020 given the high midterm turnout and its near-identical match to a presidential electorate, so she likely has nowhere to go but down from last year's result. In the near-to-medium term, she can't afford to alienate those suburbanites and non-black, non-white voters she flipped. Particularly for the former group, much of their rationale for supporting her goes out the window in a match against Perdue (who, irrespective of ideology, is much more "moderate" in tone and demeanor, and won't offend their sensibilities in the same way).

[QAnonKelly]

Maybe I'm in the minority, but at the onset, I would have been much more supportive of an Abrams Senate run than a run for Governor (it made more sense, and in retrospect - if you're likely to lose - a polarizing figure running for a polarizing office is better than a polarizing figure running for a less polarized office; see my past Gov precinct maps above).

However, now that things have played out the way they have, I think it's a bad idea for her to start up another campaign almost immediately after her last, and for a different office to boot. I know how polarization works in the state, but it's worth noting that in the metro, polarization was arguably weaker this go around than it has been in a long time. I say this because her post-Election Night behavior actually did sour a meaningful number of people on her who voted for her (the exact types who'd be lean Perdue starting out).

I think people need some time to cool down and forget about her and/or what they dislike about her if she's to be successful statewide. I sincerely doubt GA's voting demographics will change all that much between 2018-2020 given the high midterm turnout and its near-identical match to a presidential electorate, so she likely has nowhere to go but down from last year's result. In the near-to-medium term, she can't afford to alienate those suburbanites and non-black, non-white voters she flipped. Particularly for the former group, much of their rationale for supporting her goes out the window in a match against Perdue (who, irrespective of ideology, is much more "moderate" in tone and demeanor, and won't offend their sensibilities in the same way).

I completely agree. She’s better off going for something in 22, be it a state office or the senate contest. It’s just too soon and everyone needs some time to cool off.

[Del Tachi]

Agree with Adam.  Abrams should definitely sit GA-SEN out, she'd do worse than in 2018.

[Adam Griffin]

Thought I'd split up my GIF into some smaller regional pieces comparing various cycles to one another; this is the beginning.

We'll start with 2014 versus 2018:

North Georgia:

Obviously this is the most important part of the state, with two-thirds of all voters residing here. Two big trends can be observed here: the rapid expansion of Metro ATL and Abrams' significant overperformance in the "Democratic Metro" (40% of voters), and the total collapse of Abrams' support when compared to Carter in NW Georgia (7% of voters).

The fact that Abrams managed to gain so substantially in the metro when compared even to 2016 was obviously the reason behind her close loss, flipping well over 100 precincts in this portion of the state alone.

In NW Georgia, Abrams saw no net change in precincts won (she lost Coldwater in Chattooga County - previously a small but solidly Democratic precinct, while flipping a rapidly shifting precinct in Dalton and coming within a few votes of flipping an even larger one in Whitfield). To her credit, Carter's strongest improvement compared to 2010 was in NW Georgia, where he was a great fit and certainly overperformed substantially compared to other recent Democratic candidates.

Abrams appeared to have lost a decent amount of ground throughout much of rural NE Georgia as well, but not as much as was seen in NW Georgia, where Democrats have historically ran several points ahead compared to the NE counties. However, Abrams did flip 2 precincts in rapidly-diversifying Hall County, where large Latino populations and greater turnout among them this cycle likely were the culprits, while losing 1 precinct in Elbert County.



Southwest Georgia:

2014 was really the first cycle in modern times where SW Georgia appeared to be slipping for Democrats. After Obama's strong performances in 2008 and 2012 - and even Barnes' in 2010 - 2014's lackluster performance by Carter appeared to be an anomaly. Yet Carter's performance looks stellar at the precinct level compared to Abrams', who lost 20 precincts in this region that Carter carried (that's a lot given the relatively few number there are here) and picked up 1 that Carter lost. While most precincts are relatively sparsely populated in this part of the state and Abrams certainly improved over Carter in Columbus and Albany (as well as Calhoun and Terrell counties), it shouldn't be surprising after looking at this map that Abrams lost 3 counties in this region that Carter carried. The only thing that is surprising based on this performance is that she didn't lose even more. What's more interesting is that it appears much of her losses compared to Carter in this part of the state came from precincts with larger black populations: many reliably GOP precincts only shifted minimally compared to 2014.



Southeast Georgia:

Once a relative stronghold at the local and state level for Democrats, much of SE Georgia has violently shifted to the GOP in recent years. Much of the uber-white SE interior is now at the precinct level the most GOP territory in the state, given white South Georgians' propensity to be more Republican than black voters are Democratic. While there was only one precinct in all of North GA to vote >95% Republican (Haralson County), you'll find 8 in the SE interior, mostly within the Onion Belt. In many places where Carter earned 15-20% of the white vote, Abrams received 5-8%. This area gives NW GA a run for its money in terms of shifts, but the region as a whole is somewhat balanced out by the gains that Abrams made among moderate voters along the coast. With a very strong performance in Chatham County and improved margins in places like Glynn and Camden, Abrams held up well in this corner of the state.

[henster]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

It did hurt, but I think it's temporary, not irreparable.  Most voters will not care about it in 2 or 4 years.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

It did hurt, but I think it's temporary, not irreparable.  Most voters will not care about it in 2 or 4 years.

Hurt among whom? People who already hated her?

[Virginiá]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

It did hurt, but I think it's temporary, not irreparable.  Most voters will not care about it in 2 or 4 years.

Hurt among whom? People who already hated her?

Pretty much. This kind of criticism usually falls under the theory that voters pay attention and care much more than they actually do. Let alone just shy of 2 years from now.

[ON Progressive]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

No, it didn’t. Have you actually met average voters? They simply don’t care about this kind of thing.

It especially won’t matter in 2020. The average voter probably forgot about it by December (if they even heard about it in the first place), because they don’t pay attention to politics outside of the final two months of an election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

No, it didn’t. Have you actually met average voters? They simply don’t care about this kind of thing.

It especially won’t matter in 2020. The average voter probably forgot about it by December (if they even heard about it in the first place), because they don’t pay attention to politics outside of the final two months of an election.

This. The low information people who hate her don't care because Kemp is still getting sworn in on Monday, the low information people who love her believe the election was stolen and that Kemp is a white good 'ol boy crook that they've seen for decades in the South. Nothing changes. Next.

I still prefer her to run in a rematch because she thrives best discussing Georgia specific issues. Perdue's race is Lean R and her losing two statewide races in consecutive cycles isn't a good look. Unlike Beto in Texas, her state will be realistically Democratic in the near future. No need to rush into another campaign just because it's there.

[Del Tachi]

Adam, looking at your 2018 precinct map, how many DeKalb precincts did Kemp win?  Only 5?   What was the number in 2010?  2002?

[QAnonKelly]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

No, it didn’t. Have you actually met average voters? They simply don’t care about this kind of thing.

It especially won’t matter in 2020. The average voter probably forgot about it by December (if they even heard about it in the first place), because they don’t pay attention to politics outside of the final two months of an election.

This. The low information people who hate her don't care because Kemp is still getting sworn in on Monday, the low information people who love her believe the election was stolen and that Kemp is a white good 'ol boy crook that they've seen for decades in the South. Nothing changes. Next.

I still prefer her to run in a rematch because she thrives best discussing Georgia specific issues. Perdue's race is Lean R and her losing two statewide races in consecutive cycles isn't a good look. Unlike Beto in Texas, her state will be realistically Democratic in the near future. No need to rush into another campaign just because it's there.

Agreed. I don’t think we’re gonna win Perdue’s seat just yet so I don’t want her to lose twice in two years. She shouldn’t rush into something that Tomlinson has had her eye on for a while for the sake of it. There will be plenty of stuff to go for in 22