Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[catographer]

I ran my own little projections for how I think future states will go. Based on what I expect to happen (538 and RCP polling guides my guesses), plus a slight bias towards Sanders, Clinton will win by around 200 pledged delegates. Very favorably to Sanders, she wins by 100. How I honestly think things will go, she'll have between 300-400 delegate lead at the end.

For every state Sanders wins by landslides and racks up delegates, you can point to states where Clinton is favored where she'll pick up at least the same amount if not more. For example, Maryland and Washington state have about the same number of Democratic pledged delegates. Say Bernie wins 70% in Washington today, Clinton looks to win at least 60%, probably 70% in Maryland, so that cancels him out. She's expected to win New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania by small or medium-sized margins, which nets her at least 100. Geographically she has won the surrounding states of Ind, Ky, WV by winning OH, VA, IL, and TN. She wins those, it's over for Sanders.

[Gass3268]

Sanders is up to 65% now in King County.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Clinton won landslide victories in West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico and upset Obama in Indiana, South Dakota.
Why do people insist the race is over???

For a political website, many people here seriously lack a sense of perspective. I'd imagine some of the posters here get whiplash from the amount of times they've swung back and forth from "Hillary is inevitable!" to "Sanders has a real chance!" The overall fundamentals of this race have not changed a bit since January.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

Not necessarily, even by their math. Right now, he's at 89% of his delegate goal according to 538. After today, he'll likely be at 91-92%, unless something surprising happens in Hawaii.  Granted, he still has the Superdelegate problem, but that could change.

[Boston Bread]

Considering he's winning close to 80% in some other states, maybe he really did underperform in VT after all
If VT was a caucus with a 15% precinct viability threshold, Sanders could have won 98-2 or something like that. Dean, Shumlin and Leahy might have been the only Clinton voters in the whole state lol

[izixs]

In other news, looks like Alaska is 100% in with Sanders at 80.7% to 19.3% for Clinton.

[ElectionsGuy]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Is it not? After tonight, Hillarys lead dips to 240ish delegates. Which states does Sanders have left where he can make up such a huge delegate difference?

Hillary is overwhelmingly likely to win the nomination, but the race is not over. Its not like the rest of the states don't matter, they do matter, they matter because they are a measure of how strong the progressive movement is within the Democratic party. It matters because there's a wing that will probably be called the 'Sanders' wing that should be much more influential then they were in the past.  A strong finish in this primary season can mean a lot, even if he's not the nominee.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For the anti-caucus crowd, if you got your way and caucuses were done away with, would you make an exception for Iowa?  There is a lot of tradition there, and they do a good job managing it.

No. No exceptions. I've participated in the Iowa caucuses. And though going to the county and district conventions was kind of fun and interesting to a political junkie like m'self, in the end, the terrible starting process is not worth it.

Not to mention the fact that even though the Iowa caucus was well run it only had a turnout of 15.7% of those eligible to vote. Overall, in 2008, 29% of those eligible across the country voted, so even one of the best run caucuses in the nation couldn't break that very low threshold.

Caucuses are inherently undemocratic and disenfrachise entire segments of the voting population. That's why they always favor extreme candidates from both sides of the political spectrum, whether it's Pat Robertson and Ted Cruz or Bernie Sanders and Jesse Jackson.

[Matty]

I know benrie has about a 0% chance to win the nomination, but damn...relative to expectations from when she first announced, talk about an underpeformance by clinton in this primary.

NOBODY expected sanders to win more than one or two states. To be the wife of one of the most beloved progressives of all time and to fail to utterly sweep the primary is troubling, and it's a sign that the clinton third-wayism is on its way out, new deal politics back in!

[°Leprechaun]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Clinton won landslide victories in West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico and upset Obama in Indiana, South Dakota.
Why do people insist the race is over???

For a political website, many people here seriously lack a sense of perspective. I'd imagine some of the posters here get whiplash from the amount of times they've swung back and forth from "Hillary is inevitable!" to "Sanders has a real chance!" The overall fundamentals of this race have not changed a bit since January.

That's true, people have been saying that Clinton was inevitable before the first vote was cast.      Her supporters were thrilled with Iowa and South Carolina. Sanders has been coming from behind all along. He still has a chance, there aren't too many people who can predict the future with 100% accuracy. People are still voting for Clinton and Sanders because they know that this race isn't over. Sanders is still behind, but he moved forward tonight. One small step for Sanders, one giant leap for liberal Democrats.

[Santander]

it's a sign that the clinton third-wayism is on its way out, new deal politics back in!

Agree with this.

[Xing]

For a political website, many people here seriously lack a sense of perspective. I'd imagine some of the posters here get whiplash from the amount of times they've swung back and forth from "Hillary is inevitable!" to "Sanders has a real chance!" The overall fundamentals of this race have not changed a bit since January.

You're of course right, but this is Atlas. This forum literally overreacts to EVERYTHING. Also funny how the same people that insist Kasich has no chance at a brokered convention think Sanders can still win lol.

Well, Sanders has a least won his fair share of states, and has a mathematically (extremely improbable to the point of being nearly impossible) possible path to the nomination. The same can't be said for Kasich.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

Not necessarily, even by their math. Right now, he's at 89% of his delegate goal according to 538. After today, he'll likely be at 91-92%, unless something surprising happens in Hawaii.  Granted, he still has the Superdelegate problem, but that could change.

Using a percentage really downplays the extent he is in the hole. According to 538, after tonight he "should" be down about 50 delegates if he was on track. Instead, he'll be down by 230+.

[Landslide Lyndon]

To be the wife of one of the most beloved progressives of all time and to fail to utterly sweep the primary is troubling, and it's a sign that the clinton third-wayism is on its way out, new deal politics back in!

Now, what's wrong with this picture?

[°Leprechaun]

Many Sanders supporters here sound like they don't have hope. Some of us still do. But from what I have seen elsewhere there is still a lot of enthusiasm for Sanders (just look at his rallies). Sanders supporters here tend to be more cautious and "conservative" as to his chance of winning this than do most Sanders supporters in general. Feel the bern.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Is it not? After tonight, Hillarys lead dips to 240ish delegates. Which states does Sanders have left where he can make up such a huge delegate difference?

Hillary is overwhelmingly likely to win the nomination, but the race is not over. Its not like the rest of the states don't matter, they do matter, they matter because they are a measure of how strong the progressive movement is within the Democratic party. It matters because there's a wing that will probably be called the 'Sanders' wing that should be much more influential then they were in the past.  A strong finish in this primary season can mean a lot, even if he's not the nominee.

I think you took "the race is over" a little too seriously. It is over in the sense that Hillary is going to be the nominee, but you are correct that a lot can still be learned from the remaining states. But to people who only care about an overall victor, it makes sense to have tuned out after March 15th. That said, you would expect 538 to be interested in patterns and results even if they won't effect the overall outcome, given the type of site it is.

[The Other Castro]

Many Sanders supporters here sound like they don't have hope. Some of us still do. But from what I have seen elsewhere there is still a lot of enthusiasm for Sanders (just look at his rallies). Sanders supporters here tend to be more cautious and "conservative" as to his chance of winning this than do most Sanders supporters in general. Feel the bern.

Enthusiasm is nice and all, but realistically nominations are decided by delegates and cold hard math. To have a chance at getting the nomination, Sanders would need to win PA, tie in NY, overperform in all the states that favor him, and win CA by more than 20. That just doesn't seem possible.

[Frodo]

it's a sign that the clinton third-wayism is on its way out, new deal politics back in!

Perhaps, but not yet.  Hillary will be the bridge -the transition- between the old Third Way as represented by her husband (Bill Clinton), Barack Obama, and Tony Blair, and to any future Democratic presidents who follow after who adhere to the 21st century version of New Deal progressivism.  

[Xing]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Is it not? After tonight, Hillarys lead dips to 240ish delegates. Which states does Sanders have left where he can make up such a huge delegate difference?

Hillary is overwhelmingly likely to win the nomination, but the race is not over. Its not like the rest of the states don't matter, they do matter, they matter because they are a measure of how strong the progressive movement is within the Democratic party. It matters because there's a wing that will probably be called the 'Sanders' wing that should be much more influential then they were in the past.  A strong finish in this primary season can mean a lot, even if he's not the nominee.

I think you took "the race is over" a little too seriously. It is over in the sense that Hillary is going to be the nominee, but you are correct that a lot can still be learned from the remaining states. But to people who only care about an overall victor, it makes sense to have tuned out after March 15th. That said, you would expect 538 to be interested in patterns and results even if they won't effect the overall outcome, given the type of site it is.

Another thing I might add is that they covered the March 22nd contests. It could just be that, like a lot of folks, they only care about the Republican side. That's disappointing, considering that there is data to be looked at on the Democratic side as well.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

All of Snohomish in, Bernie wins it with 76.1%.

[/]

Sanders has officially won another state with >80%!

[Boston Bread]

Sanders has officially won a state with >80%!

A second state, he got 86 in VT.

[Flake]

About how many delegates will Hillary and Bernie get out of Washington?

Sanders has officially won a state with >80%!

He has before

[/]

Sanders has officially won a state with >80%!

A second state, he got 86 in VT.

Well yes, but that's Vermont

[IceSpear]

Are we ever going to be able to get a geographic breakdown of Alaska?