Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[MRCVzla]

A little update about several issues
In these weeks the "Sardines" citizen movement has emerged strongly, headed mainly by students, and that after a mass demonstration in Bologna on November 14, they have multiplied throughout Italy from North to South, they are described as people without party flags, but with a clear rival such as anti-fascism and Salvini's ideas.

At the same time there is the whole drama of the elaboration of the "Manovra" (the budgets) and how the gialorosso government tries to have the accounts in order, although other problems arise in the economic (all the -ex- Ilva scandal).

In the electoral, it has already been confirmed that on January 29 there will be regional elections in Emilia Romagna and Calabria, they already have polls from the earlier and seem to indicate a closed race with a slight advantage of the candidate of the center-left and incumbent Regional President Stefano Bonaccini regarding his right-wing rival, Leghista senatrice Lucia Borgonzoni (both had their first debate on TV last Tuesday), the M5S will present candidate and independent lists after a consultation on the Rosseau platform in which a 70% rejected an "electoral break" of the MoVimento in the next regional elections to prepare for the next general election.

This week, has formally presented itself as a political party "Azione" (Action), the rename of "Siamo Europei", the centrist pro-EU movement from Carlo Calenda and Matteo Richetti. While in the orbit of the center-right in its minority centrist area, more possible defections are rumored from Forza Italy, with a Berlusconi that has even suggested not presenting its symbol in a future general election, and a reunification of much of the spectrum of the former DC.
 
And with all the possible referendum flying over there (confirmation of the reduction of parliamentarians, electoral law with pure FPTP...)

[MRCVzla]

Well, to help update this post, next month, on September 20 and 21, will be held the pending regional and local (administrative) elections, plus the Constitutional Referendum about cutting parliamentarians.

Seven regions are called to the polls; Veneto, Liguria, Tuscany, Marche, Campania, Puglia, plus an early election in the Aosta Valley, of the first six regions, 4 are hold of the center-left and 2 are controlled by the center-right. Veneto and Liguria are safe for the Cdx, Tuscany would remain a safe stronghold for the Csx, Campania is likely hold for the Csx, while the fiercest battles would be in Marche and Puglia (currently ruled by the Csx). Regarding electoral alliances, Renzi's party (IV) will run separate candidates against the center-left in Veneto, Liguria and Puglia, while also in Liguria, will be repeated the alliance experiment between PD (center-left) and the M5S with a consensus civic candidate (despite as it turned out last time in Umbria).

Regarding the issue of cutting parliamentarians, a recent poll came out these days giving the advantage to the YES by 72-28, although the validity will depend on the participation and how close the question will be through the days, most of the major parties support the YES despite of notable internal fractions on the subject, while several of these individuals and parliamentarians of those parties along with minor parties of various ideologies or civil associations will campaign in favor of the NO. The reform seeks to reduce the composition of Parliament, from 630 to 400 seats in the "Chamber" and from 315 to 200 elected seats in the Senate, plus a limit of 5 appointed senators for life.

Also, two by-elections for the Senate will also be held in a Veneto district as well as another in Sardinia, as the senators who were elected in 2018 have passed away in recent months, an FDI senator in the Villafranca di Verona district, as well as a Senator of the M5S in the district of Sassari, in the latter the "pentastellatos" will run with a common candidate together with the center-left.

[MRCVzla]

Tuscany has a particularity compared to the rest of the Italian regions, since it provides the possibility of a second round (as happens in local elections) if the candidate/coalition leading the first round is below 50% and the candidate/coalition in 2nd place exceeds 40% of the votes, whoever wins the runoff, gets the Regional Presidency and the majority award for the Regional Council.

According to the polls, this seems to be the case with MEP Ceccardi (cdx) overcoming that threshold and posing a certain threat to the dominance that the center-left has historically had in the region (currently represented by incumbent Regional Council president Giani). Although exists the "wild card" from where the M5S votes would go, that scenario could prevent Salvini's candidate from winning.

Apulia would remain as the other region tossup with the dispute between MEP Fitto (cdx) and the incumbent governor Emiliano (csx), there is a disjoint vote in that region and many M5S voters would tip the balance in favor of Emiliano (very close to the grillinos).

While it seems that Marche is going to turn to the center right with MP Acquaroli.

[MRCVzla]

Summary of elected Regional Councils (compared to the 2015 results)
Veneto
Centre-right: 42 seats (+8; in 2015, including Tosi-led centre list)
Centre-left: 9 seats (-3)
M5S: 0 (-5)

Liguria
Centre-right: 19 seats (+3)
Centre-left+:M5S 12 seats (-3; in 2015, Csx, M5S and Rete a Sinistra -today Linea Condivisa- ran separately)

Tuscany
Centre-left: 25 seats (=)
Centre-right: 14 seats (+5; in 2015 LN/FdI and FI ran separately)
M5S: 2 seats (-3)
Left-wing (Fattori): 0 (-2)

Marche
Centre-right: 20 seats (+13; in 2015 LN/FdI and FI/Area Popolare ran separately)
Centre-left: 9 seats (-10)
M5S: 2 seats (-3)

Campania
Centre-left: 33 seats (+2)
Centre-right: 11 seats (-2)
M5S: 7 seats (=)

Apulia
Centre-left: 28 seats (-2)
Centre-right: 18 seats (+5)
M5S: 5 seats (-3)

Total coalitions (six regions, compared with 2015 results):
Centre-right: 124 seats (+32)
Centre-left: 114 seats (-12)
M5S: 18 seats* (-18)
Left-wing: 0 (-2)

*M5S elected 2 seats in Liguria (-4 respect 2015) as part of the centre-left coalition.

Total main national parties (six regions, including elected regional candidates):
PD: 69/256
Lega: 39/256
FdI: 31/256
M5S: 18/256
FI: 12/256
IV: 6 (4 in Campania, 2 in Tuscany)
UDC: 2 (Campania and Marche)
Europa Verde: 2 (Veneto and Campania)
+Europa: 1 (Campania)

Zaia' civic list got 24 seats in Veneto (plus the President seat), Toti' Cambiamo list got 8 seats in Liguria (plus the President seat), De Luca' civic list got 6 seats in Campania (12 parties got seats inside of the coalition).

Aosta Valley (compared to current Regional Council)
Lega 11 (+4)
Valdostan Union 7 (+2)
Civic Progressive Project (PD, Rete Civica and Verdi) 7 (+5)
Valdostan Alliance-Stella Alpina-Italia Viva 4 (-5)
United Aosta Valley (Mouv'-Ensemble) 3 (=)
For the Autonomy 3 (new)

Centre-right (FI-FdI) and Rinascimento lists came shortly to surpass the local threshold and failed to gain seats.

[MRCVzla]

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.

Fitto's party (Direzione Italia) merged with Fratelli d'Italia since 2019 (and was the access card for Queen Giorgia to enter into ECR party and EP group).

I believe that the current electoral horizon for the minor centrist parties within CDX, have would be either to remake a "quarta gamba" between Noi con l'Italia, UDC and Cambiamo! or that some of them join the lists of the major CDX parties (likely NCI and UDC in the FI list while Toti and allies in the FdI one) in the event that a new proportional electoral law is done.

If the Rosatellum remains in force, members of these parties could run as candidates in safe single-member districts for the CDX (as happened with the candidates elected by NCI-UDC in 2018, although at that time they expected better results in the South, overshadowed for the outstanding performance of the M5S).

[MRCVzla]

2. The Ligurian regional president, Giovanni Toti, who had broke from Forza Italia a couple years and founded his own tiny party called Cambiamo!, has decided to join forces with Venice mayor Luigi Brugnaro and former FI dinosaur Gaetano Quagliariello. They have also managed to scoop up a surprising number of members of Parliament, especially Deputies snatched from Forza Italia - currently the new group numbers 23 in the Chamber. Coraggio Italia sits at around 2% in its first polls. Gah, I'd rather not have such a character as regional president.

When they presented the group, Toti and Brugnaro literally sayed "Thank you Silvio for leading the moderate center-right, but your time is up...". The group also has 7 senators (6 from the Idea-Cambiamo! sub-component in Mixed Group, and they added former Liguria president Sandro Biassotti from FI). It's very europeist and supports Draghi cabinet. Note apart to say of the 10 MP who formed the Cambiamo!-Popolo Protagonista (a christian democrat splinter from M5S) sub-component, 2 MP not joined the new CI group and still in the Mixed Group.

On election notes, along the administrative/local and Calabria regional elections, in September also will held 2 by-elections from the Chamber, the Siena district who has months vacant and other one in Rome (held in 2018 by M5S, MP for the district left the seat days ago). Rumors says that Enrico Letta and Giuseppe Conte will potentially be the candidates for the CSX+M5S alliance in that districts.

Alongside Recovery Fund, a hot topic in Italian politics in the last months it's the known as "DDL Zan" (Law Decree Zan) named after proponent PD MP Alessandro Zan, the bill is against any type of discrimination for the LGBT+ community (or "anti homophobia"), and "suprisly", opinion polls showed overall support for the bill, even by most of the center-right voters

In a last, but sadly note, this week passed away Guglielmo Epifani, MP for Liberi and Eguali and also brief PD leader during 2013 (between Bersani and Renzi terms), also was the first socialist to lead the CGIL, a notorious workers central, may he RIP.

[MRCVzla]

Runoffs or "ballotaggio" are happening between today and tomorrow Monday, meanwhile last week some first-round local elections was hold in the autonomous regions, as the possible ban of radical-neofascists parties is discussed, but one thing happened under the table, an express constitutional reform has come into force on the reduction of the voting age in the Senate in which young people between 18-25 years old will also be able to vote in elections for the Upper House.

In fact, it was in force since the parliament approved the reform in July but until now, no one had requested that a confirmatory referendum be held as happened last year when the reduction in the number of parliamentarians was approved, once the 3-month term has expired to request, the reform has already been validated.

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1448659332460003338

Yesterday the deadline to ask for a confirmatory referendum on the constitutional reform that raises the minimum age to vote for the Senate from 25 to 18 years old.
The reform is now officially in force: from the next general election the two Chambers will thus have the same electoral base.

[MRCVzla]

Unrelated to the local elections but there is a Big F---ing Deal of an update - to quote the President of the USA - regarding the struggle between Di Maio and Conte within the M5S, which seems to have reached a bitter end. Luigi Di Maio is rumoured to be leaving the party soon and is collecting signatures for a new parliamentary group in both houses. Predictably figures who were once more relevant (Grillo, Di Battista) have come out to attack the decision. I don't really know what to say except that this is so painfully in character for the Five Stars Movement - I would point out that if this goes through they will manage the incredible feat of falling to second biggest party in Parliament after Lega (they started the legislature with almost twice the seats). Great job you idiots, never change.

And it's official, the M5S is a dying party. Di Maio has left the "MoVimento" and named his new group "Together for the Future" with a pro-NATO/pro-EU stance, around 50 deputies and 15 senators will form the respective parliamentary groups, leaving M5S with more than a half of the MPs who were elected in 2018 (Lega will be now the first minority group, at least in the "Camera"). Bloomberg reports rumours about what the Conte' remains of M5S may leave Draghi' national unity cabinet. Let's see...

[MRCVzla]

To add another update to Di Maio' split, they finally formed the Senate group with the help of Tabacci' Centro Democratico with the minimum of 10 senators. By Italian Senate regulations, only lists/parties what participated in the last elections can form a group or a component within the Mixed group (the latter also applies in the Camera, with a mininum of 3 MPs), as already known Italia Viva group was formed thanks to the PSI, and recently, the other main M5S split in this legislature, left-wing Alternativa, formed its Senate group thanks to Italia dei Valori -member of the extinct Civica Popolare list- and the Partito Communista (ofc all his members were former M5S), also Paragone' Italexit formed a component within the Mixed group thanks to the minor Human Value Party...

In other news, a little bit under the radar but last weekend was officially announced the common list between Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde for the 2023 election, the name of the left-green list is "Nuove Energie" (New Energies) and is nicknamed as "the watermelon" (green outside, red inside). They commisioned an internal poll about its potential electorate, the core group is at 4% (the current combined polling between SI and EV) with a maximum potential of 13% (very very unlikely). Termometro Politico has several months already polling this common list and currently is below the 3% Rosatellum PR threshold.

[MRCVzla]

Well, the Government Crisis atmosphere is being real this time, and all depends on the Senate vote for the "DL Aiuti" (the defacto confidence vote on the government), rumors says what M5S will vote against, if this happens, seems game over (for real) for this legislature. Draghi dares to resign if this happens bc he not see his cabinet without M5S, Salvini says if M5S votes against, the Lega also will dropout the government and we go to snap elections, also Letta says if M5S is out this will mean go the polls as the most logical choice.

There will be a meeting of M5S MPs in the next hours to define what will vote. Conte has called Draghi to accord another meeting soon over the issue.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

In other electoral related news in order for the next election cycle, other two alliances were presented in the last days. Again, by the left of PD, Potere al Popolo, Rifondazione Communista, ManifestA and the Luigi Di Magistris party DemA will ran together in a list called "L'Unione Popolare" (The Popular Union), obviously inspired by NUPES/Unidas Podemos, the PaP-PRC list collected more than 1% in 2018 and they gained in the last years parliamentary representation thanks to M5S left-wing/anti-Draghi defectors.

The other joint list cames from the right-wing, as the extraparliamentary conservative party "Il Popolo della Famiglia" led by Mario Adinolfi will ran with the euroskeptic movement Exit, led by former Casapound leader Simone Di Stefano in the "Alternativa x l'Italia" (Alternative for Italy) list, their symbol originally presented included a "No Draghi 2028" reference being clear their opposition of the current PM, but for legal reasons (reference of a external figure aside of the party/list), they changed to "No Green Pass" in order also to reach the Antivaxx vote. They may have some problem if the M5S splinter Alternativa is also running in the next elections for similar naming (i guess)

[MRCVzla]

DL Aiuti (voted as confidence vote to the govt.) was approved 172 for and 39 against with the M5S didn't vote as announced. That didn't stop Draghi to cancel today's Council of Ministers and going to the  Qurinale anyway. Likely resignment?

According internal sources, in the yesterday' call between Conte and Draghi, the M5S leader asked the PM for help with the internal discontent in the party, but Draghi replied a la "that's not my problem".

In the case if they we going first to consultation round, some analysts and politicians like De Alema are trying to invoke the "ipotesi Amato", in reference to call the former PM and current President of the Constitutional Court Giuliano Amato to be nominated as interim PM (like happened in 1992 or 2000) for what remains to the legislature or until snap elections.

[MRCVzla]

Snap elections could be held most likely... not in October 2th, but on September either the 18th or 25th. On 25th is Jewish' New Year but the italian jewish community don't see a problem to the election being held that day. Right now at the Quirinale are Fico and Casellati along with President Mattarella to being agree on a election day. Draghi is (at the moment of redact this) going to Quirinale to sign the decree about the dissolution of the parliament (activation of the Art. 88 of Italian Constitution) and in the next hours we know the the definitive election day.

Many consecuences about the fall of the government and the snap election. Letta has announced that the PD-M5S coalition it's over, seems a little bit suicidal as we are going into election with the (adapted) Rosatellum electoral law, and some projections with this scenario shows the centre-right having super majority of 2/3 of the seats in both chambers... unless the centrist bloc (Azione/+Europa, Italia Viva) or PD itself concentrates the so called "Draghi vote" (people anger of the govt. fall, likely former M5S or FI voters).

Speaking of the centrist bloc, FI longtime ranks and ministers Mariastella Gelmini and Renato Brunetta are anounced to left the party and are most likely joining Azione, also FI senator Andrea Cangemi who was one of the few centre-right senators to vote yesterday for the confidence against the party line also left the party.

[MRCVzla]

It's official, Parliament dissolved, Snap elections on September 25
"Important" dates:
August 12-14: Deposit of Electoral symbols (parties/lists to will run) at the Viminale (Interior ministry)
August 21-22: Deadline to present electoral lists/FPTP candidates
September 10: Deadline to publish opinion polls (poll ban)
October 28 or later (likely): New government will be formed.

Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution), Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)

[MRCVzla]

The South Tyrol autonomists SVP are running alone this time, last time they ran apart of any coalition was in 2008, in 2018 ran with the centre-left but after the regional/provincial elections of that year they have the Lega as is government partner (in the 2019 EP election they votes were linked nationally to FI). Anyway, they have very safe their 2 Bolzano districts in both chambers (plus 1 PR seat they probably will get in the Chamber), the question mark should be the proper Bolzano italian-friendly district in the Senate who remained unchanged and is a competitive seat for both Csx, Cdx and the SVP itself.

In Aosta Valley, PD wants to form a "great autonomist front" between local parties UV, AV and Mouv, but they have some minor problems in the formation of the alliance. In 2018, the Chamber seat was won by M5S meanwhile the Senate seat was held by the PD-backed autonomist candidate, as in 2018 and in the latest regional election, the Center-right was divided between the Lega and FI-FDI, likely will happen again unless last minute moves.

Centrists updates: Calenda rejects being in the same coalition "to the far-left (SI/EV) to Di Maio", he's confident to pull a similar result to their Rome mayoral run (20%) running alone or with other centrists (sure), as Azione is collecting some of the politicians who recently left FI like Senator Cangemi or some rumors point about Ministers Gelmini and Brunetta (or even Mara Carfagna) to join the party in next days.

Meanwhile in the far-left, Rifondazione Comunista (member of the Popular Union alliance) had proposed to the M5S to form a "popular alliance" coalition.

Rumors say former PD leader Nicola Zingaretti will resign to his post of President of the Lazio Region to ran in the General Elections, this could also push a snap regional election (before March 2023) in the capital' region (in case he's elected, probably sure if he ran in the PR quota or in a very safe Rome district).

They are also (minor) problems at the Centre-right coalition in the distribution of the districts per party. FDI wants to use the most recent opinon polls meanwhile Lega and FI prefer a 6-month poll average (less penalizating for both parties)

[MRCVzla]

Despite the national-level brokeup, today were held the Primaries of the "large camp" area (PD+M5S+left) for the coalition' presidential candidate in the upcoming Sicilian regional election. Most of the votes were online and turnout was more than 2/3 of the less of 50k inscrits. MEP Caterina Chinnici (PD) will be the coalition' candidate, the M5S has conceded the result
https://twitter.com/ItalyElects/status/1550966577453047811

In other nationwide news relate to the now weak "MoVimento", Beppe Grillo reconfirmed the party' two-term limit policy who barres to run any of the party MPs who are on parliament since 2013 (and probably one of the reasons of the Di Maio' faction spilt from the party). This caused the return to the party of Alessandro Di Battista, one of the politicians most linked to the M5S' original populist/anti-system stances and who was disastified with the Di Maio/pro-Draghi direction of the party.

[MRCVzla]

Speranza has given the OK for Articolo 1 to run together in a common list with PD (on Wednesday the party leadership would make the decision official), the PSI will also join this list which will be called "Democrats and Progressives" (ofc along with the PD symbol). Today was also the presentation of the appeal for a "republican pact" by Azione and +Europa, where once again they reinforce their position against the centre-right and everything that is or has been related to the M5S, while not closing to a return to the centre-left alliance.

In more scoop related to the formation of the center-left coalition...
https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1551622548357521411

More and more insistent voices speak of an agreement between PD, Azione/Più Europa, a Centrist list (Di Maio and others), EV-SI. Renzi out of the center-left.
Could this be why the former PM presented a new symbol in recent days?

(Probably if this scenario turns out to be true, this will ultimately atract Toti to team up with Renzi and run alone, even though the two combined (according to polls) are around -if not below- the 3% threshold for the PR quota).

[MRCVzla]

Latest updates: Conte re-confirmed yesterday on an interview what the M5S is running alone (no alliances neither to the left yet), Renzi also sayed IV will running alone (for now), Di Maio meanwhile is assembly his centrist list along Tabacci' Centro Democratico or Milano mayor Beppe Sala (also some notes says former Parma mayor Federico Pizzarotti would be also around). As the exodus from Forza Italia continues as Mara Carfagna confirmed she's leaving FI joing fellow ministers Gelmini and Brunetta to the mixed group in the way to likely joining Azione or other centrist parties (as today, 9 MPs left FI since the start of the political crisis).

Many simbols were unveiled: The Europa Verde-Sinistra Italiana joint list will finally named as "Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra" (Greens and Left Alliance), still unclear if they will running alone or be partner of either centre-left or the M5S. The souveranist left (anti-Draghi, anti-NATO and a little bit antivaxx too...) around the "United for the Constitution" Senate group also presented their list named "Italy Sovereign and Popular", supported among others by Marco Rizzo' Partito Comunista or Antonio Ingroia (who led a few left-wing souveranist lists in the last two elections), neither other members of the group like M5S-splinter Alternativa or what remains of Italia dei Valori are joining this list (yet). As in the centre-right camp, Maurizio Lupi presented a new symbol for Noi con l'Italia who probably will be used again as the coalition' "fourth leg" (in 2018 were a common list along the UDC -screwed by M5S' strong performance in the South-, today are now a full party and likely are trying to secure some safe FPTP seats)

In a minor but kind of relevant note for the next legislature, as the Senate is still working through August 6, the minimal number to form a group as been lowered from 10 to 7 senators.

[MRCVzla]

Today was an held an important meeting of the centre-right at Montecitorio palace (House' place) between Meloni, Salvini, Berlusconi, their respective parties high ranks, plus Lupi (NCI), De Poli (UDC) and Brugnaro (Coraggio Italia).
https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1552401942936264707

The center-right tonight during the Montecitorio summit would also have reached an agreement on the premiership

As in 2018, in the event of a victory, the coalition party that gets the most votes will have the right to indicate the prime minister

https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1552396435601121286

Repubblica writes that the center-right has closed an agreement for the division of the 221 single-member constituencies on these numbers:
FDI 98 (44%) Lega 70 (32%) FI 42 (19%) NcI 11 (5%)

The parties' share taking the latest average polls were:
FDI 49% Lega 32% FI 18% NcI 1%

NCI quota also includes CI and UDC will run inside of FI' lists, All parties are running with their own lists to a total of 5, also they agreed to present a common list in the overseas constituencies, as they did -the big 3- in 2018.

Meanwhile the internal problems in the M5S continues around founder Grillo' two-term limit rule as Conte seems being against of it.
https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1552304675663273985

According to the Corriere della Sera, there would have been an ultimatum from Grillo to Conte: "If you waive the second mandate, I leave the Movement"

[MRCVzla]

It's not yet finalised but here's how things stand for the Centre-right Coalition (CDX):

Fratelli d'Italia
Lega	Lega per Salvini Premier
	Sardinian Action Party
	Italian Liberal Right
Forza Italia-UDC	Forza Italia
	Union of the Centre
	New Italian Socialist Party
	Pensioners' Party
	Christian Revolution
	Animalist Movement
Noi con l'Italia
Coraggio Italia

There will be a number of right-of-centre regionalist parties (AAC, MpA, DB etc) running on the lists of one of the main three partners and a joint list (last time named "Berlusconi-Salvini-Meloni") for the Italians Abroad.

Not necessary "Rivoluzione Cristiana" but Gianfranco Rotondi' current christ-dem one-man microparty is named "Verde e Popolare" (Green and Popular), just saying. Also inside Lega (per Salvini Premier) there's still around the original Lega Nord who conserves their autonomy as a party despite being outside the basically the same (kind complicate to resume). Nor rule out a possible rejoin from Toti' Italia al Centro (Cambiamo!-IDeA) to the coalition, which in past days has been more than likely rather than run with Renzi or alone.

Weekend update:
- The agreement of the joint list between PD, Articolo 1, PSI and minor social christian party DemoS is official, PD' list nickname will be "Italy Democratic and Progressive", Letta, in an attempt to counteract the M5S term limit rule, has suggested that potential PD' FPTP candidates should not run on PR lists to avoid being re-fished (parachuted) if they lose their district (as was the case with various party heavyweights in 2018). Meanwhile Zingaretti has confirmed he's running
- Tomorrow Monday, it will be decided whether Azione/+Europa will finally run alongside the center-left, although Calenda is still not sure whether to go in the same alliance from Fratoianni to Di Maio, but understands that the current electoral law is what it is if the scenario is to avoid a supermajority of the Cdx, Calenda also today posted a letter to Letta with their toughts about how is going the "Republican agreement" (no alliance with any who voted against Draghi, among others). Meanwhile former FI ministers Gelmini and Carfagna have officially joined Azione and are more favorable to the line of a "Rome scenario" (the center running apart)
- Also tomorrow will be unveiled the symbol and program between Di Maio and Tabacci' centrist list (the latter is the key to not needing to collect signatures*), the name of the list will be Civic Commitment ("Impegno Civico"). Rumors / false news would have indicated that Di Maio would be reserved for the safe district of Modena (even the local PD branch did not see it with good eyes), but the minister has denied that information (most likely he runs in some district in Campania)
- House' Speaker Roberto Fico will respect the M5S' two-term limit rule and he's not seeking reelection, but others two-term M5S MP like Davide Crippa (former M5S group leader in the House) or minister Federico D'Inca' had left the party.
- Small centrist lists have appeared in recent days, Federico Pizzarotti together with Piercamillo Falasca have launched the National Civic List "L'Italia c'e'" advocated so that mayors and various independents can present within the list, it will also run without the need to collect signatures (*) as Italia Viva has changed the name of its House group to include this reform-oriented micro-party (of which some IV' MPs are also members)
- Other centrist list running alone is Referendum and Democracy headed by Marco Capatto, an exponent always linked to the Radicals and defender not only of pan-Europeanism but also that referendums such as those regarding euthanasia or cannabis legalization can be carried out, members of Possibile and Volt' italian branch will also be on this list as well MP Alessandro Fusacchia (elected with +Europa in 2018), also has (kind of) the support of former FI MP Elio Vito.
- Another centrist list that will run on its own will be Clemente Mastella' Noi Di Centro, who, although he offered himself to the center-left, will finally present his own candidates, especially in his native Campania.
- Also moves on the fringe right. Italexit will run on a joint list with fellow M5S splinter, anti-system Alternativa, Paragone has also announced some of the candidates, several with an antivaxx/anti-COVID/green pass measures profile. Also in the COVID-denialist camp' will run a list called "Vita" (Life) who is headed by MP Sara Cunial.

(*)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

The lists that want to stand for the September elections have to present at least 750 physical signatures in each constituency in each chamber (almost 70k in total if they want to stand in all the districts) unless 1) They have a Parliamentary Group in some of the Chambers on 12/31/2021 (Coraggio Italia whose group was dissolved last June still counts, but not groups formed after that date like Insieme per il Futuro or the United for the Constitution Senate group) or 2) They have reached above the 3% threshold or the 1% threshold in coalitions to be part of the PR' seat distribution in the last elections. Lega, FI, FdI, PD and M5S fulfill both, LeU, IV, already mentioned CI fulfill the first (as well microparties who helped to form a group in the Senate like PSI did for IV), and +Europa-Centro Democratico and Noi con l'Italia-UDC fulfill the second (in addition ofc to South Tyrolean SVP with its special threshold for linguistic minorities). LeU recently changed the name of its group so that its constituent parties Articolo Uno and SI (especially the latter as a member of the Green and Left Alliance) can be favored, as did Italia Viva so that the civic list of L'Italia c'e' can be presented as I mentioned before.

With such tight deadlines due to early elections and even more so with the entire collection process and a large part of the campaign taking place in the middle of August, it will be difficult for many small lists to be able to collect all the physical signatures necessary to present themselves in all constituencies. Some micro-parties and lists support the option of a digital collection of signatures to debug the process, but (as I understand) it requires the will of President Mattarela or the electoral authority (the Ministry of the Interior) to give the green light to that initiative (hope I am correct, i'm writing this from memory)

[MRCVzla]

And speaking of which, Letta and Calenda have reached a coalition agreement. Apparently they're going to split the FPP seats 70-30, which is frankly ridiculous when their polling numbers are more on the order of 80-20 or 85-15. I guess Calenda drove a hard bargain, and Letta felt he really needed him (if nothing else, to isolate Renzi).

But now many parties to the left of PD are dissatisfied and making noises about leaving the negotiating table with PD. We'll see what they do, but I'll still count today as a relative win for the paltry chances we have at stopping a right-wing majority.

Also in the agreement, any of the coalition' party leaders will not run in FPTP districts also neither any of the so-called "divided personalities" as formers MPs and ministers from M5S (Di Maio and co.) or FI (Carfagna, Gelmini...). That was if not the main concern for Calenda as being in the same coalition with Di Maio and likely EV/SI, also EV/SI were the ones who proposed the idea of no leaders (or high-profile politicians) in FPTP seats to court/calm down the liberals. Centre-left FPTP candidatures will mostly being local/independent/low-profile with the main ranks bet all to PR seats (while IC and/or AVS probably at risk to not gaining any seats)

Probably Letta will now do separate agreements with AVS and IC to likely ceede around 15-20% of its 70% share of FPTP candidates and some safe districts... and not write off if the agreement with the liberals will also convince Renzi' IV to finally rejoin and take some of the Azione/+Eu' 30% share of FPTP candidates.

[MRCVzla]

Sicilian regional election will be also on September 25. Regional President Nello Musumeci as resigned, according some source pressured by FI and Lega.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1555256817504100352

In other news, talks between PD and Verdi/SI continues and they put a 48-hours limit to reach an agreement and clarify their stauts within the centre-left.

[MRCVzla]

This bilateral agreement means?
if i understand the 148 FPTP of Chamber wiuld be
84 to PD
36 to A/E+
21 to SI/EV
7 to IC
what you think?

The overall possible agreement in both chambers seems to be this:
https://twitter.com/lorepregliasco/status/1555997116060803072

The EV/SI agreement was possible also by an SI' internal vote where 61% were favorable to an alliance with PD.

Also yesterday there were some movements in the other blocs:
- Toti' Italia al Centro oficially rejoined the Centre-right and run in a join list with Lupi' Noi con l'Italia. In the same vein, the UDC (Unione di Centro) will run in a joint list with Brugnaro' Coraggio Italia, instead of run inside of Forza Italia' lists/quota. In both cases, seems FDI will ceede part of their FPTP seats quota to this minor parties.
- Mastella' Noi di Centro reached an agreement with microparty "Europeisti" by senator Raffaele Fantetti (elected in an overseas constituency) what will run at national level without collecting signature, they still run by their own with the hope of elect at least a senator in Campania (probably Mastella' wife Sandra Lonardo, running for reelection).
- Just hours after been presented at the public, Alternativa broke up its alliance with Italexit, arguing what in the Italexit quota were candidates with "neofascist profile" (allegedly related to Casapound)

[MRCVzla]

Also to the Azione/Italia Viva joint list (the so-called "third pole") whose frontman is Calenda, was confirmed the joint list of the minor centrist parties of the center-right coalition, the name of the list is "Noi Moderati" (Us Moderates) and their symbol is a huge mess as mixes the planned symbols of the 2 moderates list merged who each one also are mergers of 2 microparties (Noi con l'Italia+Italia al Centro and Coraggio Italia+UDC).

Oh, and the PD also presented the symbol of their "Italy Democratic and Progressive" list, with Articolo Uno, PSI and DemoS, also will ran on the list Volt Italy and some members of the Italian Radicals (part of the +Europa pact) and also supported by the microparty PRI-splinter MRE who was member and had parliamentary representation with the center-left in the 2000s. Other minor move is other microparty changing partners as Possibile is reuniting with SI and EV in the Green-left Alliance when they originally supported the Capatto' Referendum and Democracy list

Tomorrow til' Sunday evening will start the symbol extravaganza at the Viminale (Interior ministry) with the deposit of the symbol who intend to run in the September election, I recommend (Twitter feeds aside) the coverage of I Simboli della Discordia blog who gives details of those fringe microparties who intend to run (and most of them are rejected or barely make it to the ballots)

[MRCVzla]

The PD's (preliminary) list has been fueled of controversy in recent hours, as several important party ranks have complained of being placed in ineligible positions in the PR quota or not appearing on the lists at all, some of them they have even declined the candidacies that have been proposed to them (like Stefano Ceccanti or Alessia Morani) . Also a few posts for their partners in the "Italy Democratic and Progressive" list (despite Speranza's "capolista" and DemoS' Paolo Ciani has been placed in the very safe Roma centre House constituency).

One of the interesting battles probably will be the Roma centre Senate constituency between the until a few weeks-allies Enma Bonino (incumbent) and Carlo Calenda.

Also today were the M5S' internal primaries, with the candidature for the House and the Senate, there's was included a question about approve a select list of candidates proposed by Conte:
https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1559466934172848130

Summarizing also in other alliances/parties. FI turns to other football club presidents for candidates on its lists. FDI proposes former Brazilian F1 champion Emerson Fittipaldi as a candidate (in the Cdx joint list) for the South American constituency in the Senate, Italexit postulates former conservative mayor of Rome Gianni Alemmano or the sovereignists/anti-system of Sovereign and Popular Italy nominate 95-year-old actress Gina Lollobrigida also for the Senate.

In the past weekend, 101 symbols of 98 different parties/lists* were deposited at the Viminale (Ministry of Internal Affairs), many of them they are bizarre and with little chance of collecting enough signatures and/or being on the ballot, others simply to prevent someone else from presenting themselves with a similar symbology or name, some of them with internal disputes as occurs with some duplicates (such as the various reincarnations of the DC, the PLI or the Libertas Movement) or to tried to have a preventive symbol in case any of the registered parties manages to evade the collection of signatures (as the leftist Popular' Union). For more detail on the stories of these symbols, check out the I Simboli della Discordia blog (in italian): http://www.isimbolidelladiscordia.it/2022/08/elezioni-politiche-2022-i-simboli-uno.html
https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1558898058288660481

And 48 hours later we known what "symbols" were admitted or not and the ones who have to present more documentation (consent to present lists). Reminder: the final lists deadline is until next Monday (August 22)
https://twitter.com/StefanoMentana/status/1559553386562953219

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

*PD-IDP presented 2 similar symbols (the latter for the overseas constituencies) while the Green-Left Alliance presented 2 variations of their symbol for the linguistic minorities' ares (one for Bolzano in german/ladin and the other for Friuli-Venezia Giulia in slovene)

[MRCVzla]

Extraofficial lists and FPTP candidates of the main 4 blocs and the main CDX (no Lega lists yet) and CSX parties (minus Impegno Civico, but their lists are on their website btw) per YouTrend: https://www.youtrend.it/2022/08/23/elezioni-politiche-2022-tutti-i-candidati-e-le-liste/

Until Monday were also the final day of recolection of signs. Paragone' Italexit, De Magistris' Unione Popolare, Rizzo' Italia Sovrana e Popolare, Adinolfi' Alternativa per l'Italia, Cunial' Vita and another antivaxx list called Forza del Popolo led by a certain Lillo Massimiliano Musso, all are certain to be on the ballot nationwide. In some of the Trento Senate constituencies (only elect FPTP seats), the centre-left and the centrist/liberal third pole will run together in the "Democratic Alliance for the Autonomy".

In Sicily news, Conte brokeup the "large camp" alliance with the PD, so the M5S will also run alone there, with Nuccio Di Paola as their Regional President candidate, Caterina Chinnici remains as the centre-left alliance. This makes some easy the way to a Schifani win, meanwhile the incumbent President Musumeci will run in the Catania Senate constituency.