Likely D
Hawaii - Schatz should probably end up winning, but the Republicans do have an outside chance at winning if the national political environment deteriorates or the Democrats actually end up infighting and splitting the liberal white and Asian-American coalition in the state.
Tossup/Tilt D
New Hampshire - If Shaheen defines Scott Brown as a carpetbagger, she will defeat him. On the other hand, Brown is a skilled candidate who has won in one of the bluest states in the nation, and he might just neutralize the attacks that Democrats throw at him.\
I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous.
Fine, you say my predictions are "ridiculous", but why? I'd like to know your reasoning.
For me, Likely D or Likely R means that the party in favor has about a 90-95% chance of winning, but hey, if you guys on this thread think that Schatz has a 100% chance of winning, that is fine by me. Unknown candidates can win given a few lucky breaks, and I just accounted for that in HI.
By that definition, everyone who has AN opponent should be rated Likely D/R.
