2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

One or two rounds in now JMM-INC-RJD lead growing

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         45           +20
BJP                       25            -12
AJSU                      4             -1
JVM                        3             -5
OTHER                    4             -2 (1 CPI(ML), 1 BJP rebel, 2 BSP)

the 2 BSP leads will most likely disappear.  One of them will be NCP for sure

Vote share from ECI which is a lagging indicator are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.6%
BJP                        33.1%
AJSU                       7.4%
JVM                         5.5%
BSP                         1.6%

Which does imply a narrow JMM-INC-RJD victory in the end

[jaichind]

BJP CM Raghubar Das is ahead of BJP rebel Saryu Roy 43%-35% in Jamshedpur East so far.

[jaichind]

In Barkatha, BJP got the JVM MLA Janki Prasad Yadav to defect to BJP spurring its 2014 candidate Amit Kumar Yadav who ran as a BJP rebel.  BJP rebel Amit Kumar Yadav is ahead of BJP's  Janki Prasad Yadav 42%-20%

[jaichind]

BJP headquarter in Jharkhand has a deserted look at all the media outlet swarm to JMM and INC headquarters as it seems that JMM-INC-RJD will sweep to power.

[jaichind]

Counting continues.  JMM-INC-RJD below majority again

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         40           +15
BJP                       28             -9
AJSU                      6             +1
JVM                        4             -4
OTHER                    3             -2 (1 CPI(ML), 1 BJP rebel, 1 NCP)

BSP leads gone and one of them went to NCP as expected

Vote share from ECI which is a lagging indicator are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.6%
BJP                        33.6%
AJSU                       7.5%
JVM                         5.7%
BSP                         1.5%

Which does imply a narrow JMM-INC-RJD victory in the end

[jaichind]

In retrospect the BJP should have formed an alliance with AJSU.  Had they do so most likely they could have fought JMM-INC-RJD to a draw if not holding a slight edge.

[jaichind]

Counting continues.  JMM-INC-RJD now above majority

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         41           +16
BJP                       28             -9
AJSU                      5             --
JVM                        4             -4
OTHER                    3             -2 (1 CPI(ML), 1 BJP rebel, 1 NCP)

Vote share from ECI which is a lagging indicator are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.6%
BJP                        33.3%
AJSU                       7.8%
JVM                         5.7%
BSP                         1.4%

JMM-INC-RJD has a steady 2%-2.5% vote share lead throughout.  JMM-INC-RJD victory should be clear now.

[jaichind]

Bishrampur is a 5 way tie so far

IND     19.4% (Left/Social Acvitist)
INC     18.6%
JVM     17.4%
BSP     17.4%
BJP      15.9%

back in 2014 it was

BJP     22.7%
JNNM  14.4% (tribal based party since merged into JVM)
INC    13.4%
BSP    11.5%
JVM      8.2%
SP        6.4%

INC most likely to win in the end.

[jaichind]

BJP CM Raghubar Das lead over BJP rebel Saryu Roy lead down to 39.9%-39.3% in Jamshedpur East.

[jaichind]

Hussainabad is a fun 4 way battle

NCP         23.3%
BSP         21.7%
IND(BJP) 18.1%
RJD         15.7%

back in 2014 it was

BSP         37.0%
NCP        19.1%
BJP         16.4%
RJD         14.8%
JMM          4.9%
JVM          1.4%

[jaichind]

Counting continues.  JMM-INC-RJD now above majority

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         41           +16
BJP                       30             -7
AJSU                      3             -2
JVM                        3             -5
OTHER                    4             -2 (1 CPI(ML), 1 BJP rebel, 1 NCP, 1 IND(Left))

Vote share from ECI which is a lagging indicator are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.4%
BJP                        33.4%
AJSU                       8.2%
JVM                         5.5%
BSP                         1.4%

JMM-INC-RJD has a steady 2%-2.5% vote share lead throughout.  JMM-INC-RJD victory should be clear now.

[jaichind]

Not reflected in the ECI site yet but rumors say that BJP CM Raghubar Das now behind BJP rebel Saryu Roy by 1% in Jamshedpur East.  INC contested here and seems to be around 6%.  Had INC withdrawn from this race then BJP CM Raghubar Das most likely would have been defeated.  As it is it seems 50/50.

[jaichind]

ECI site now has in  Jamshedpur East BJP rebel Saryu Roy 41.1% to BJP CM Raghubar Das 38.9% !!

[jaichind]

Counting continues.  JMM-INC-RJD now above majority

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         43           +18
BJP                       27            -10
AJSU                      3             -2
JVM                        3             -5
OTHER                    5             -1 (1 CPI(ML), 2 BJP rebel, 1 NCP, 1 IND(Left))

Vote share from ECI which is a lagging indicator are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.5%
BJP                        33.2%
AJSU                       8.3%
JVM                         5.5%
BSP                         1.4%

JMM-INC-RJD has a steady 2%-2.5% vote share lead throughout.  JMM-INC-RJD victory should be clear now.

[jaichind]

Counting continues.  JMM-INC-RJD now above majority

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         42           +17
BJP                       28             -9
AJSU                      3             -2
JVM                        3             -5
OTHER                    5             -1 (1 CPI(ML), 2 BJP rebel, 1 NCP, 1 IND(Left))

One of the BJP rebel ahead is Saryu Roy who is ahead of BJP CM Raghubar Das

Vote share from ECI which is a lagging indicator are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.3%
BJP                        33.7%
AJSU                       8.3%
JVM                         5.4%
BSP                         1.4%

BJP has closed the gap between itself and JMM-INC-RJD in terms of vote share. Seems to indicate that a winder JMM-INC-RJD victory is most likely not possible.  JMM-INC-RJD narrow majority still most likely result.

[jaichind]

Counting mostly done.  JMM-INC-RJD now well above majority

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         45           +20  (JMM 30 INC 14 RJD 1)
BJP+                     26            -11
AJSU                      3             -2
JVM                        3             -5
OTHER                    4             -1 (1 CPI(ML), 2 BJP rebel, 1 NCP)

One of the BJP rebel ahead is Saryu Roy who is well ahead of BJP CM Raghubar Das

Vote share from ECI which is also mostly done are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.8%
BJP+                      33.8%
AJSU                       8.1%
JVM                         5.2%
BSP                         1.4%

JMM-INC-RJD vote share lead over BJP+ is around 2.0%.  I included the pro-BJP independent in Hussainabad as part of the BJP+ vote share.

ECI also has BJP winning or ahead in 28 seats vs 26 in media projections.  Media at this stage tend to be a bit ahead of ECI but pretty soon we have to go with ECI numbers.

[jaichind]

In Jamshedpur East BJP rebel Saryu Roy well ahead of  BJP CM Raghubar Das

BJP rebel   43.4%
BJP           34.0%
INC            9.9%
JVM            5.9%

Back in 2014 it was

BJP          61.5%
INC         19.8%
JVM         12.4%
JMM           2.4%

Anti-BJP vote mostly consolidated around BJP rebel  Saryu Roy

[jaichind]

Funny stories from Jharkhand  elections.

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/jharkhand-elections-brother-kills-brother-their-wives-contest-against-each-other-in-polls-1618681-2019-11-14

Jharkhand elections: Brother kills brother, their wives contest against each other

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/bjp-mla-to-contest-against-his-wife-in-jharkhand-775960.html

BJP MLA to contest against his wife in Jharkhand


What took place here was the INC MLA for  Jharia,  Niraj Singh, was defeated by his cousin and BJP candidate Sanjeev Singh in 2014.  Afterwards Niraj Singh became deputy mayor of the city and became very popular and was viewed as a major threat to retake the seat from his cousin and current BJP MLA Sanjeev Singh.  So Sanjeev Singh arranged for have is cousin and political rival murdered  in 2017 which got him to be behind bars on murder charges.  So now the wives of both cousins and political rivals will run against each other as the INC and BJP candidates respectively.


Now, a further complication is the BJP MLA behind bars  Sanjeev Singh


Is angry that the BJP nominated his wife and not himself.  He then arranged to get a parole from jail and now will run as a BJP rebel against his wife as BJP candidate  and the INC candidate who is the wife of the cousin he allegedly murdered.

Note: this might be a feature and not a bug.  This "rebellion" might have been drummed up by BJP and   Sanjeev Singh so that the BJP and distance from himself while now both he and his wife can campaign (with now double the spending cap since there are two candidates) with the local BJP base being told to vote  Sanjeev Singh and not the official BJP candidate which is  Sanjeev Singh's wife.

In Jharia it seems in the end BJP MLA who was behind bars gave up his "rebellion" against his wife who is the BJP candidate.  But in the end INC candidate Purnima Niraj Singh who is the wife of the murdered INC candidate from 2014 beats out the BJP's Ragini Singh who is the wife of the 2014 BJP winner in 2014 and MLA


INC    50.7%
BJP     42.6%

Back in 2014 it was

BJP    48.1%
INC   26.2%
MCO  12.2%
JVM    6.4%

MCO and JVM not running gave the INC a clear run at BJP 1-on-1

[jaichind]

Now we have murderer vs murderer vs murder victim's son

https://theprint.in/politics/in-jharkhand-polls-ex-mla-is-up-against-assassin-he-hired-son-of-rival-he-got-killed/324556/

In Jharkhand polls, ex-MLA is up against ‘assassin he hired & son of rival he got killed’
 

In 2005 Tamar seat JD(U) candidate Ramesh Singh Munda (with BJP support) defeated JD(U) rebel Gopal Krishna Patar.    In anger Gopal Krishna Patar contracted the notorious Maoist rebel  Kundan Pahan to murder Ramesh Singh Munda.  It was very clear that Gopal Krishna Patar and Kundan Pahan  were behind the murder but they were never convicted.  

Kundan Pahan


Gopal Krishna Patar


In 2009  Gopal Krishna Patar  got the JD(U) ticket to run with BJP support while Ramesh Singh Munda's son Vikas Kumar Munda ran for AJSU but lost to Gopal Krishna Patar.  In 2014 Gopal Krishna Patar ran for re-election as a JD(U) backed independent but lost to  Vikas Kumar Munda running on the AJSU ticket as BJP has switched support over to AJSU.  

Vikash Kumar Munda

 
Vikas Kumar Munda has since broken with AJSU and this time will run for JMM while Gopal Krishna Patar will run for NCP.   But the Maoist rebel Kundan Pahan who was arrested in 2009 has been allowed to leave on bail to contest in Tamar.    So we now have murderer vs murderer vs murder victim's son.

In Tamar JMM's Vikas Kumar Munda wins

JMM       39.1% (Vikas Kumar Munda who was AJSU 2014 winner and son of murdered Ramesh Singh Munda)
AJSU      17.4%
BJP        12.8%
NCP       11.7% (Gopal Krishna Patar and one of the murders of Ramesh Singh Munda)
IND         2.1% (Maoist rebel Kundan Pahan and one of the murders of Ramesh Singh Munda)

Back in 2014 it was

AJSU      42.9% (Vikas Kumar Munda)
IND        23.5% (JD(U) backed Gopal Krishna Patar)
INC        13.8%
JVM         4.9%
JMM         2.1%

JMM taking in a AJSU rebel paid off.

[jaichind]

ECI and media projections have mostly converged so lets go with ECI figures

                        Leads/Win        Vote share
JMM-INC-RJD        46                   35.7%
  JMM                   30                   19.0%
  INC                    15                   13.9%
  RJD                     1                     2.8%
BJP+                    25                   33.9% (includes pro-BJP independent in Hussainabad)
AJSU                     3                     8.0%
JVM                       3                    5.3%
BSP                       0                    1.4%
AIMIM                   0                     1.1%
NCP                       1                    0.5%
CPI(ML)                 1                    0.3%
BJP rebel               2

Vote share includes NOTA

[jaichind]

My exit poll to projection algorithm

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

Average of exit polls has it at

                        BJP      JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
VDP                  35                37              3          1       5
Cvoter-ABP        32                35              5          3       6
Kashish             28                44              3          3       3
TimesNow          28               44              0          6       3
Republic            26                42              4          3       6
Spick                 27               42              4          4       4
Axis-MyIndia      27               44              4          3       3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        29                41            3.5       3.5      4


There was only one pre-election poll done by Cvoter-ABP

                        BJP     JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
Pre-election        33           31                6          6       5
Exit poll             32           35                5          3        6

Which implies a slight shift toward JMM-INC-RJD mostly at the expense of AJSU JVM and OTH.  Based on that I will take the average of the exit polls and shift seats from BJP (due to defeat of incumbent) and AJSU JVM to take the trend into account.

                        BJP      JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
Average             29                41          3.5        3.5       4
BJP shift            -3                 +3                                        (defeat of incumbent party)
Momentum                            +1         -0.5      -0.5      
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection          26                45            3          3         4

Which means JMM most likely will overtake BJP as largest party.  OTH 4 most likely are (1 NCP, 1 CPI(ML) plus (two of MCO IND or JHP))

My exit poll based projection mostly seems mostly bang on.  I got the NCP and CPI(ML) minor parties win. 

[jaichind]

Bishrampur is a 5 way tie so far

IND     19.4% (Left/Social Acvitist)
INC     18.6%
JVM     17.4%
BSP     17.4%
BJP      15.9%

back in 2014 it was

BJP     22.7%
JNNM  14.4% (tribal based party since merged into JVM)
INC    13.4%
BSP    11.5%
JVM      8.2%
SP        6.4%

INC most likely to win in the end.

BJP ended up winning in Bishrampur in this 5 way race despite my guess that INC would win

BJP     21.7%
IND    15.7% (Left/Social Acvitist)
BSP    15.3%
INC    14.3%
JVM    13.4%
AIMIM  6.4%
JD(U)   4.3%

[jaichind]

ECI now has it at

                        Leads/Win        Vote share
JMM-INC-RJD        46                   35.6%
  JMM                   30                   19.0%
  INC                    15                   13.8%
  RJD                     1                     2.8%
BJP+                    26                   33.8% (includes pro-BJP independent in Hussainabad)
AJSU                     2                     7.9%
JVM                       3                    5.4%
BSP                       0                    1.5%
AIMIM                   0                     1.1%
NCP                       1                    0.5%
CPI(ML)                 1                    0.3%
BJP rebel               2

Vote share includes NOTA

BJP admits that they lost the tribal vote leading to this defeat

[jaichind]

BJP CM Raghubar Das losing his seat is part of a Jharkhand tradition of sitting CM losing elections.  In 2009 JMM CM Shibu Soren was defeated.  In 2014 JMM CM Hemant Soren was defeated along with former CM JVM leader  Babulal Marandi and former CM BJP tribal leader Arjun Munda.

[jaichind]

ECI now has it at

                        Leads/Win        Vote share
JMM-INC-RJD        47                   35.5%
  JMM                   30                   18.8%
  INC                    16                   13.9%
  RJD                     1                     2.8%
BJP+                    25                   33.6% (includes pro-BJP independent in Hussainabad)
AJSU                     2                     8.1%
JVM                       3                    5.4%
BSP                       0                    1.5%
CPI(ML)                 1                    1.3%
AIMIM                   0                     1.2%
NCP                       1                    0.4%
BJP rebel               2

Vote share includes NOTA

BJP admits that they lost the tribal vote leading to this defeat