Rothenberg Gubernatorial Rankings

[Dan the Roman]

Hmm, if this is announced candidates, I'm not sure its that far off. That said, I think Georgia should be moved down. There is no real democrat on the horizon, and the party had a disastrous 2006. I'm skeptical whether a non-incumbent Democrat can win their at all.

SC - Should be further down. I have no doubt a competent Democrat could get to 44%, but after Barber lost the Lt. Gov race against Andre Bauer in 2006 its hard to see any Democrat getting over 50%. Not to mention, Moore was no joke candidate in 2006. The Democrats don't have any one who could match him at the 3rd tier level.

MD - Should be up, if only because O'Malley is in serious trouble popularity wise, just came out with a harsh budget, and Ehrlich is thinking of running again. At best if Ehrilich does run it should be narrow advantage incumbent party.

ME- Should be up in slight advantage incumbent party. Its an open seat, and the Democrats have a terrible candidate recruitment record in Maine, rivaling their counterparts in Minnesota. The AG Steven Rowe seems to be the leading candidate with an assortment of legislators. The Republicans have a wealth of tier 2 candidates ranging from 2006 primary loser Peter Mills(who would have easily won the general) to Former Minority Leader Carol Weston, and Former State Senator Kevin Raye. Not the top of the heap, but better than anyone the Democrats have right now.

MA - Hardest one to call. Depending on whether who you trust Patrick either has a very high favorable rating(suffolk, globe) or a mediocre job rating with disapproval almost as high as approvals(Surveyusa, Rasmussen). Furthermore, the state's democratic tilt is almost invisible in Gubernatorial races, and a serious Republican candidate is almost always competitive. That said Patrick is the victim of variables. Will his budget with largest local aid cuts in two decades lead to public outrage? Will Tim Cahill challenge him? If he does will it be in the primary or as a Republican? Will the Republicans entice a strong candidate into the race. An important point - in early 2001 all of the Democrats had 20-30 point leads over Jane Swift, and when Romney was included he still trailed Shannon O'Brien by 12 when he entered the race.

WI - I think Doyle may not run again, and I think he has the potential to suffer an upset if he does. He road national coattails in 2006.

[Dan the Roman]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Bill McCollum is a two-time loser (2000 Senate, 2004 Senate primary) who has been in politics forever.

I know who Bill McCollum is.  I also know that he won his last race for AG and that he's currently leading in the polls by a not-so-insignificant margin.

To be fair, in a straight ticket state he had the 2nd worst performance of any statewide  candidate against an opponent with serious ethical issues of his own, State Senator Skip Campbell, who he outspent 4-1.

He still won only 52-48.

The 2006 AG race is not so much a sign of strength as it is a sign of Florida's natural Republican lean. Which seems to be forgotten here in light of Obama's very underwhelming victory.

[Dan the Roman]

Still, none of that explains why we should expect this to be a Dem takeover when it's a "toss up" at best.

Sorry, that was my argument for toss-up rather than Lean R. I did not see he had that as lean d. Your right that is absurd.

[Dan the Roman]

You know - I find it really interesting how everytime at the beginning of an election, no matter what state, these ratings always favor the more liberal candidate.  Perry is listed as narrow advantage for incumbent party yet CT Gov is already listed as lean takeover for the democrats (with no fantastic candidates announced that could take on a Simmons or Shays should one switch or enter the race).  And Maine is listed as narrow advantage for incumbent party, with no candidate selected and republicans already leading in the polls.  Ratings bias

To be fair its a usual problem for New England politics. No one actually knows anything, so you get crazy assertions like Susan Collins being in trouble. I frankly doubt Rothenberg could name a single gubernatorial candidate in Maine.