Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

I am working on my proposal for 342 federal ridings.  So far, I have completed Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.  I hope to have the other regions finished by the weekend.

Here is my new map so far.  Please look it over and let me know if I've made any obvious errors, especially with names.  Any suggestions for improvement are always welcome.

Enjoy.  The Fish-and-Chips riding (Carleton-Charlotte) is back!

[Krago]

Heck my seat isn't even continguous by road. That's not gerrymandering, just incompetence.

Is Halifax West the non-contiguous one? How so?

Halifax would need to build a bridge to Sable Island.

[Krago]

The new Ontario map is now ready to delight and amaze.  I will fix Kenora's crew cut tomorrow.

[Krago]

What do you think of my proposed Sackville-Preston-Hammonds Plains?

[Krago]

A new and improved electoral map of Canada!

Now with Saskatoba and Kenney-tucky!

[Krago]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

[Krago]

I tried to keep all proposed ridings within 10% of their provincial average.  Here is the result.

Dev. from Prov. Avg.	FEDs	Notes
Over 15-20%	1	Halifax (+16%)
Over 10-15%	16
Over 5-10%	62
Within 5%	188
Under 5-10%	49
Under 10-15%	12
Under 15-20%	7
Under 20-25%	2	Thunder Bay seats
Under 50%	2	Labrador, Kenora
Grand Total	339

Note that Halifax is 16% above the Nova Scotia average (88,126), but 6% under the overall Canadian provincial average (108,772).

The most populous proposed riding is Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes   (129,031).


Here are the provincial quotients:

Province/Territory	Census Pop. 2021	FEDs	Quotient
Newfoundland and Labrador	510,550	7	72,936
Nova Scotia	969,383	11	88,126
Prince Edward Island	154,331	4	38,583
New Brunswick	775,610	10	77,561
Quebec	8,501,833	77	110,413
Ontario	14,223,942	122	116,590
Manitoba	1,342,153	14	95,868
Saskatchewan	1,132,505	14	80,893
Alberta	4,262,635	37	115,206
British Columbia	5,000,879	43	116,300
Provincial Subtotal	36,873,821	339	108,772
Yukon	40,232	1
Northwest Territories	41,070	1
Nunavut	36,858	1
Canada Total	36,991,981	342	108,164

[Krago]

Thanks for all your suggestions.  I've create another site where I've posted some alternative federal riding options.

https://bit.ly/AltFEDs


Occasionally, I will 'promote' some of these alternatives to my main site.

https://bit.ly/Canada342

[Krago]

I've incorporated a few minor changes around Kananaskis, Sudbury (French River) and Kanata (March Twp).  I've also changed a few riding names in Ontario and Quebec, though Hatman will still complain.  Ayn Rand fans will like the new name for Cambridge--Brant.

If you combine Nepean--Barrhaven and Rideau--Stittsville, and then split the combined area along Fallowfield and Strandherd (then north along the river), the populations are relatively even.  Would that be an improvement?

A Lanark--Stittsville seat could be possible if you want to connect the two areas with a narrow strip along Highway 7.  In the States, nobody would bat an eye.

All proposed Alberta ridings are within 10% of the provincial average (115,206).

• 11 Edmonton-area seats (118,959 avg)
• 12 Calgary-area seats (115,703 avg)
• 14 seats in the rest of the province (111,832 avg)

[Krago]

How likely do you folks feel it is that Quebec will be allowed to keep the same number of seats it currently has? I’d prefer that outcome because the HoC already has more unequal appointment (Maritimes) than if Quebec stayed at 78.

A BQ member introduced a private members' bill (Bill C-246) on Feb. 8 that would guarantee Quebec no less than 25% of the total seats in the House of Commons.  If the bill passes, not only would Quebec retain its 78th seat, it would gain 11 additional seats (89).

https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/bill/C-246/first-reading

There is currently no bill before Parliament that would prevent Quebec or any province from losing seats at a redistribution.

[Krago]

I just posted the Hatman Special on my alternative federal ridings site.

https://bit.ly/AltFEDs  (see Eastern Ontario Alternative)

It looks pretty good.

[Krago]

I've made several improvements to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


The good news is that I fixed the error between Kenora and Thunder Bay--Rainy River.  The bad news is that Ontario now has two 'special consideration' ridings below the -25% threshold.

The only Ontario riding that has a population deviation of more than 10% above the provincial average is Brampton Centre.  Any Peelers (Peelites?) in the house?

BREAKING NEWS: I have added the 25 alternative ridings to the Canada342 site to make the comparisons easier to see.  The alternatives are highlighted in magenta (pink).

[Is anyone else old enough to remember when breaking news alerts on tv were actual historical events ('The Space Shuttle has exploded') and not just 'Congressman Fluffernutter is holding a press conference'?]

[Krago]

I've added two new alternatives to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342

(1)  Brampton has been realigned so that all ridings are now below the magical +10% threshold (128,248).  Hatman will like that the entire Springdale neighbourhood is now in Brampton-Springdale.

(2)  Thunder Bay--Rainy River has grabbed Ignace and Sioux Lookout so that it is now above the magical -25% threshold (87,442).

Please let me know what you think.

[Krago]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

[Krago]

You've isolated the Savant Lake and Pickle Lake areas from the rest of the Kenora riding. Not sure how well that will fly. I have no idea if the commission will tolerate eating into Kenora in the first place, though. They will have to weigh that vs. a mega Thunder Bay-Superior riding.

There are lots of isolated communities in Kenora riding.  What's two more?

Based on my proposal, Thunder Bay--Rainy River has 82,357 people and Thunder Bay--Superior North has 91,296.  The -25% population threshold to avoid being a 'special consideration' riding is 87,443.  So even if you move some 'suburban' Thunder Bay to TBRR, there aren't enough people to bring both ridings above the -25% level (82,357 + 91,296 = 173,653;  87,443 x 2 = 174,886).

So if you don't touch Kenora, where do you find more people?  Hearst?  Foleyet?  Go right down to the city limits of Sault Ste Marie?  None of them are really desirable options.  It's tough enough to argue that Chapleau should be in a seat with Thunder Bay.

[Krago]

Has anyone seen this?

https://citygategis.com/projects/elections-canada

[Krago]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

QQ, what tool are you using to build these electorates? I'd love to try and play around myself (for the UK boundary commission they had a free super user friendly tool) just curious! thanks!

I use MapInfo Pro.  Unfortunately, a licence will set you back a few hundred dollars.  I tried switching to QGIS but all the new tricks were too much for this old dog to learn.

election-altas.ca is busy creating a Riding Builder similar to DRA.  The first version should be available soon.

[Krago]

I've added two new Alternatives:  the City of Hamilton and the York University area

A friend lives in Flamborough--Glanbrook and describes it as a 'monstrosity'.  He asked me to do better.  I think I have.

[Krago]

Here is the data I used to allocate seats across Ontario:

[Krago]

I've made two changes to the map:

• replaced the bizarre current Hamilton ridings with a much-acclaimed alternative
• moved the Humber River--Black Creek/Downsview boundary from Black Creek to Grandravine Dr. to keep more of the York University community in HRBC

You can find the new, improved map here.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Also, when I looked at my Ontario chart I wondered what a Hamilton-Brant riding would look like, and what ridings would be created by the ripple effects.  Well, wonder no more.  Check the Alternatives box to find out.


P.S. After talking with a friend from B.C., I've made a few changes to the ridings in the Burnaby area. 

P.P.S. The boundary between Brantford--Brant and Ancaster--Flamboyant--Brant (as Autocorrect calls it) has been simplified by using Hwy 403 and the Hamilton/Brant County border.

[Krago]

Ouch, a three-way split in St. Catharines? Tbf I guess Niagara Centre already takes up some parts of the city, and I don't know much about redistricting. I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

At present, the city of St. Catharines is split among three different provincial/federal ridings:
(a)  Most of the city is in St. Catharines riding (represented by Jennifer Stevens provincially and Chris Bittle federally)
(b)  the southern "sixth" of the city in in Niagara Centre (represented by Jeff Burch provincially and Vance Badway federally)
(c)  the westernmost part of the city outside the urban area boundary is in Niagara West (represented by Sam Oosterhoff provincially and Dean Allison federally)

By hook or by crook, Niagara Falls riding has to shed people and Niagara West has to gain people.  So NOTL has to "get the heck outa' Dodge" go somewhere.

Niagara Falls riding was in the top three of most populated ridings when it was created from the 2011 Census.  Even with just Niagara Falls and Fort Erie left, it is still bigger than the other Niagara Ridings.

Of course, that could be fixed by moving the communities of Crystal Beach and Ridgeway from Niagara Falls to Niagara Centre, and in turn moving the part of the Western Hill neighbourhood in St. Catharines that is west of Louth Street from Niagara Centre to Niagara West.  But Krago won't even deign that as an alternative for fantasy riding map purposes...    :-(

With 4 ridings, I don't think you can avoid splitting St.Catharines.

What if NOTL stayed in Niagara falls but Fort Erie moved into Niagara Centre. St.Catherines shifts South to accommodate.
But parts of St.Catharines would probably still be split between three ridings; at 140K people St.Catharines is too big to be all in one, maybe two?  

A couple alternatives that divide St. Catharines between two ridings only:

Plan A
- Leave St Catharines unchanged
- Remove NOTL from Niagara Falls (keep Fort Erie)
- Swap Fonthill and Wainfleet to Niagara Centre in exchange for St Cath part of Niagara Centre to Niagara West
- Create a Wine riding (Niagara North) from Grimsby/West Lincoln/Rural Pelham to NOTL linked by narrow strip of south St Cath

114,782 – St Catharines
117,373 – Niagara North
118,470 – Niagara Centre
127,316 – Niagara Falls




Plan B
- Same as Plan A, except for a three-way trade:
NOTL from Niagara North to Niagara Falls
Fort Erie from Niagara Falls to Niagara Centre (renamed Niagara South)
Thorold from Niagara Centre to Niagara North (renamed Niagara West)

114,782 – St Catharines
122,101 – Niagara West
127,555 – Niagara South
113,503 – Niagara Falls

[Krago]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)

[Krago]

There are now 29 ridings in the Alternatives section of the map (https://bit.ly/Canada342).  

Here's a rundown.

(a)   Newfoundland and Labrador (4 seats)
Labrador riding only has 37% of the population of an (already low) average NL riding and is by far the least populous constituency in Canada.  One idea is to add the Northern Peninsula - from St. Anthony down to Gros Morne - to Labrador, raising its share to 57%.  The resulting ripple effect would have Baie Verte added to the western Newfoundland riding (renamed Humber—St. George’s—Baie Verte), and Gambo moved from Bonavista—Burin--Avalon to Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame.

(b)   Southern New Brunswick (3 seats)
Moving Rothesay from Saint John to join the other communities along the Kennebecasis River in Gagetown—Kennebecasis would allow the three ridings in the area (including Fundy—Royal) to follow county lines and better balance populations.

(c)   Montreal (3 seats)
Montreal is unchanged except that the neighbourhood of Le Sud-Ouest was moved from Ville-Marie--Île-des-Soeurs to reduce its population count.  Bringing the new LaSalle--Émard--Verdun--Le Sud-Ouest within a +10% deviation from the Quebec average could be done by moving an area west of the Canal de l’Aqueduc to Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle and moving Ville Saint-Pierre to Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount.

(d)   Ottawa (2 seats)
The proposed map reunited the Carlington area within Ottawa West—Nepean.  An alternative plan would keep the boundary along Merivale Rd and remove Carleton Heights/Hog’s Back from Ottawa Centre instead.  Moving both neighbourhoods to Ottawa West—Nepean would leave a 11K population gap between the two ridings.

(e)   Kanata/Stittsville (2 seats)
Kanata and Stittsville combined are too large to form one federal (and provincial) riding.  However, by removing all the territory of Kanata—Carleton north and west of Terry Fox Dr (West Carleton, South March, the Diefenbunker) and swapping this area with Stittsville from Lanark—Carleton, it would create two seats with similar populations.

(f)   Waterloo/Brant/Hamilton (11 seats)
Brant has too many people for one federal riding and needs to join part of the county to one of its neighbours.  The proposed map adds it to Waterloo Region; the alternative map adds it to Hamilton instead.  The ripple effect would move the Bridgeport area from Waterloo to Kitchener Centre and keep the other three regional seats almost unchanged.  In Hamilton, Stoney Creek would be reunited in a single seat and Dundas would be added to downtown Hamilton.

(g)   Northern Ontario (2 seats)
Thunder Bay—Rainy River has a population that is more than 25% below the Ontario average.  This makes it a ‘special consideration’ riding.  Thunder Bay—Superior North does not have enough population to shift some ‘suburbs’ to TBRR to bring it above the 87,443 threshold.  The solution would be to either extend TBSN further east and south (Hearst? Foleyet?) or to detach Ignace and Sioux Lookout from Kenora and add it to Thunder Bay—Rainy River.

(h)   Strathcona County (2 seats)
Originally, there was an attempt to balance the populations of Lakeland and Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan by moving some of the ‘rural’ area of Strathcona County to Lakeland.  It was pointed out that these rural residents were predominantly multi-millionaires living on estate lots, and that their community of interest with Vegreville was minimal.  The original proposal is left as an alternative plan.

[Krago]

People have known since October that Quebec would lose one seat in the upcoming redistribution.  Fixing the problem would involve amending Section 51(1) Rule 2 of the Constitution Act, yet there is currently no bill before Parliament that would do this.

"2.  If the number of members assigned to a province by the application of rule 1 and section 51A is less than the total number assigned to that province on the date of the coming into force of the Constitution Act, 1985 (Representation) completion of the preceding readjustment, there shall be added to the number of members so assigned such number of members as will result in the province having the same number of members as were assigned on that date."


A BQ member introduced a private members' bill (Bill C-246) on Feb. 8 that would guarantee Quebec no less than 25% of the total seats in the House of Commons.  If the bill passes, not only would Quebec retain its 78th seat, it would gain 11 additional seats (89).

https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/bill/C-246/first-reading

[Krago]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)

Spadina--Fort York: I like Fort York, or perhaps Trinity--Fort York
"new" Spadina: I'm no fan of ridings named after streets, but you do add more justification with the other mentions. I might try Annex--Kensington
Davenport: Again a street name, but also only about half the neighbourhood is in this riding. I like Dovercourt as a better name, the neighbourhood is fully here and its a way-back to the old provincial riding. If we are going down this streets name path, Dufferin would be better (the street is central here, also the neighbourhood of Dufferin Grove and the Mall is all here. This make more sense then Davenport) But there is a county with that name as a riding so...

I forgot Toronto--Danforth!  Danforth--Corktown, anyone?

And Beaches--East York only has the eastern half of the former Borough.  Beaches--Taylor Creek?