Arizona versus Georgia

[Adam Griffin]

We already did this a few weeks ago, but here goes:

Yeah I browsed over the discussion about AZ here, and I'll just boil my thoughts all down to this. We'll take the Democratic voting blocs and break them down by the numbers. The percentages shown below will build upon one another, showing the percentage of the vote statewide that is Democratic.

AZ not only a couple points less non-white than Georgia, but its non-white population is super-majority Latino, not super-majority Black. Latinos are barely 2-to-1 Democratic; Blacks are 9-to-1.

Theoretical non-white, Democratic vote (as a % of the state)
Georgia: 37.0%
Arizona: 30.8%

Then you have to factor in the fact that oh, say, 40% of the Latino population in a given area usually can't even register to vote.

Theoretical non-white, Democratic vote minus non-citizens (as a % of the state)
Georgia (83%): 34.8%
Arizona (69%): 21.0%

The whites in AZ may be more Democratic, but it isn't nearly enough to make up the difference.

Theoretical white, Democratic vote (as a % of the state)
Arizona (40%): 22.4%
Georgia (25%): 13.5%

When you add the two latter sets of numbers together:
Georgia: 48.3% D
Arizona: 43.4% D

Arizona's got a while before it's ready.

And Georgia whites - in a mid-term and during a national Republican wave - were as Democratic as they were in 2008 for a black guy with the most ideal circumstances that could be expected for Democrats (and even more Democratic than they were in 2012), so I wouldn't necessarily say that whites "are as Republican as they've ever been".

In addition to that, Latinos are very fickle and unreliable voters as a whole, who are not a locked-down demographic for Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

I am rethinking things after this year's elections.  The problem in Georgia is that I don't think black voters are going to remain this D after Obama.  And the white voters moving in are much more likely to be culturally Midwestern than in FL, VA or even NC.  So I just don't see a D path in Georgia with an 85/15 black vote, a 65/35 Hispanic vote and a 55/45 Asian vote, which is probably where we are heading post-Obama.  The more libertarian positions D's will need to take to hold on in CO/NV/VA etc. will eventually turn off some moderate minorities.

On the other hand, culturally Western white voters were one of the only Dem bright spots this year, and AZ is acting like a tilt R purple state for downballot D's.  Obama did some unique things to alienate the state, so once he is out off office, D opportunities should only grow there.    

Exit polling both in 2010 and 2014 suggested that black support dropped a bit, but only to where it was in Georgia pre-Obama, which is 90% Democratic. Yes, that'll impact things considerably, but consider that even with that drop, Nunn basically got the same percentage of the vote that Obama got in 2012, and 3-4 points more of the white vote during an election with abysmal turnout. I'm still waiting to see all of the county-by-county breakdowns on racial turnout (should be available from SoS soon), but it appears that the biggest drop-off in this cycle was among white, progressive, younger voters.

I've seen two sets of estimates for white D support in 2010 - one showed 20% and the other showed 23%. It's important to consider that the white level of support in this very low turnout election (more so than 2010) was at or above 2010 levels. Considering the state became two points more Democratic when compared to 2010, I tend to think the closer estimate for 2010 was whites @ 20% Democratic. I think there's a much bigger increase (among whites, mainly) waiting to be seen in 2016 with full turnout and a (presumably) non-black nominee.