GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[2016]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

Camden County which went +33 Walker in November only has about 4K People Voting through 2pm. Walker needs to be closer to 9K to have any chance at all.

Camden County suggest Republican Turnout WAAAY DOWN!

That’s most likely bad news for Walker, but also just a snapshot of a single county at a particular time. How many votes were cast early? How many remaining votes will be cast? If you know the answers to those two questions, it’ll be a lot more indicative.

I’m not denying that this election is an uphill battle for the GOP or that Warnock could win in a rout, but I wouldn’t call it yet.

It would also be helpful if you provided a source for your claims, especially turnout reports, which tend to be deliberately selective to feed a particular narrative.

https://twitter.com/CamdenCountyGA/status/1600207660506402817

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

Thanks! Someone in the replies mentioned that election day (only) turnout on Nov. 8 was 7k in this county and that they do seem to be on pace on to match that, but how many early votes were cast for the runoff this time (in this county)?

[Brittain33]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

This is the only time I can ever recall seeing you make a prediction that is more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom.

Why now?

Is it because you have dumped Trump for DeSantis and you figure if Walker loses badly it will reflect poorly on Trump and ultimately help DeSantis?

He wants to own the libs by pretending Warnock underperforms.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600173572650958848?cxt=HHwWgICgjdzY-rQsAA...

I wonder what's it like in Florida regardless of the pre-Western/post-American political culture that has been promoted there.

[Person Man]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

This is the only time I can ever recall seeing you make a prediction that is more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom.

Why now?

Is it because you have dumped Trump for DeSantis and you figure if Walker loses badly it will reflect poorly on Trump and ultimately help DeSantis?

He wants to own the libs by pretending Warnock underperforms.

Probably. DeSantis is basically "Not Trump", but Trump. He's the ultimate compromise candidate.

[2016]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

This is the only time I can ever recall seeing you make a prediction that is more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom.

Why now?

Is it because you have dumped Trump for DeSantis and you figure if Walker loses badly it will reflect poorly on Trump and ultimately help DeSantis?

Republican Party is losing ELECTION after ELECTION because of a certain Incompetent Individual called Donald John Trump + Candidates he endorses.

I will support any Republican Nominee in 2024 NOT NAMED TRUMP except for former VP Mike Pence. Pence is too much of an religious BIGOT. We don't need another one like Mitt Romney was. Romney lost 2012 because he was a Mormon and Pence has suspicious religious beliefs.

If it's DeSantis - Fine with me.
If it's Youngkin - Fine with me.
If it's Larry Hogan - I'd would have some reservations about his Policies but I'd vote for him.
If it's Haley - Fine with me.

Republican Party needs to defeat Trump at all costs YES even preventing Trump folks from caucusing or voting in GOP Primaries.

I want TRUMP barred from ever seeking Office again.

[Spectator]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

This is the only time I can ever recall seeing you make a prediction that is more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom.

Why now?

Is it because you have dumped Trump for DeSantis and you figure if Walker loses badly it will reflect poorly on Trump and ultimately help DeSantis?

Republican Party is losing ELECTION after ELECTION because of a certain Incompetent Individual called Donald John Trump + Candidates he endorses.

I will support any Republican Nominee in 2024 NOT NAMED TRUMP except for former VP Mike Pence. Pence is too much of an religious BIGOT. We don't need another one like Mitt Romney was. Romney lost 2012 because he was a Mormon and Pence has suspicious religious beliefs.

If it's DeSantis - Fine with me.
If it's Youngkin - Fine with me.
If it's Larry Hogan - I'd would have some reservations about his Policies but I'd vote for him.
If it's Haley - Fine with me.

Republican Party needs to defeat Trump at all costs YES even preventing Trump folks from caucusing or voting in GOP Primaries.

I want TRUMP barred from ever seeking Office again.

Then maybe the GOP should’ve impeached him in 2021 then.

[GeorgiaModerate]

*snip*

Thanks! Someone in the replies mentioned that election day (only) turnout on Nov. 8 was 7k in this county and that they do seem to be on pace on to match that, but how many early votes were cast for the runoff this time (in this county)?

According to https://georgiavotes.com/county.php, Camden County has cast 8,981 early votes in the runoff.  (This was 81.4% of their November 8 early vote, which works out to just over 11K.)

[Del Tachi]

*snip*

Thanks! Someone in the replies mentioned that election day (only) turnout on Nov. 8 was 7k in this county and that they do seem to be on pace on to match that, but how many early votes were cast for the runoff this time (in this county)?

According to https://georgiavotes.com/county.php, Camden County has cast 8,981 early votes in the runoff.  (This was 81.4% of their November 8 early vote, which works out to just over 11K.)

Overall, the early vote seems to be holding up for Warnock but there are some worrying numbers for Democrats here, especially among non-ATL sources of D votes where Warnock will need strong margins in a close race.  Places like Chatham (Savannah) and Bibb (Macon) counties, which are only at about 61-62% November early vote.  Fulton also looks pretty weak at 65%.   

[Adam Griffin]

An hour later: 153/163 Dekalb precincts currently have no wait times; 8 have waits of approximately 5 minutes & 2 have 10-minute waits.

Seems like a suboptimally large # of people voted early then, assuming they were in town today?

Apparently (think I saw it here on an earlier post), 250k people statewide voted in the first 2 hours. This of course was a combination of working-age people queuing up before their shifts & an absurdly large number of old farts who've been up since 4 with nothing better to do before swinging by the Hardee's for their sausage and mustard biscuits & going to their doctor appointments.

This hits a little too close to home

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

Thanks! Someone in the replies mentioned that election day (only) turnout on Nov. 8 was 7k in this county and that they do seem to be on pace on to match that, but how many early votes were cast for the runoff this time (in this county)?

According to https://georgiavotes.com/county.php, Camden County has cast 8,981 early votes in the runoff.  (This was 81.4% of their November 8 early vote, which works out to just over 11K.)

Thank you! (also for providing the source)

So ~9K early votes + ~7K election day votes = ~16K in total would be a realistic estimate for Camden County? ~18K votes were cast in November, so that would amount to 85%-90% of the November total.

Maybe not enough for Walker, but not nearly as bad for him as 2016 made it out to be.

[wbrocks67]

Watching CNN, no one speaking about an exit poll so I wonder if they're not doing it.

[Adam Griffin]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

Camden County which went +33 Walker in November only has about 4K People Voting through 2pm. Walker needs to be closer to 9K to have any chance at all.

Camden County suggest Republican Turnout WAAAY DOWN!

That’s most likely bad news for Walker, but also just a snapshot of a single county at a particular time. How many votes were cast early? How many remaining votes will be cast? If you know the answers to those two questions, it’ll be a lot more indicative.

I’m not denying that this election is an uphill battle for the GOP or that Warnock could win in a rout, but I wouldn’t call it yet.

It would also be helpful if you provided a source for your claims, especially turnout reports, which tend to be deliberately selective to feed a particular narrative.

https://twitter.com/CamdenCountyGA/status/1600207660506402817

...you do realize that those figures are Election Day only, right?

Camden had 17,873 total votes in November.

In the runoff, it has banked 8,981 early votes + 3,937 ED votes as of that update = 12,918 votes total. It's at 72% of total turnout as of 2 PM, which is perfectly fine and not indicative of a GOP turnout collapse. Dekalb was at 74% by the same metric just a bit after 2 PM as well, for comparison.  

[Adam Griffin]

Dekalb County:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1600236314414043136

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

[Adam Griffin]

THE NEEDLE HAS ARRIVED

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/06/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate-runoff.html

[Ben.]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

[Eraserhead]

Watching CNN, no one speaking about an exit poll so I wonder if they're not doing it.

Probably didn't want to pay for one. Last time it was two races and it decided control of the Senate. This time it's just one and it won't. Still a bummer though.

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

There's barely any pathway whatsoever for Walker if ED turnout is below 1.4m. Mathematically, they do exist...but unless the EV simultaneously looked unprecedentedly Democratic yet voted for Walker at much higher than expected levels, it's a hard needle to thread.

[Tekken_Guy]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

There's barely any pathway whatsoever for Walker if ED turnout is below 1.4m.

Is there any reason to expect ED turnout to outpace November?

[Ben.]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

There's barely any pathway whatsoever for Walker if ED turnout is below 1.4m. Mathematically, they do exist...but unless the EV simultaneously looked unprecedentedly Democratic yet voted for Walker at much higher than expected levels, it's a hard needle to thread.

Best bet for Walker is a big late day surge, still possible - but agree it looks like a very narrow path if we're at 70-75% of November ED turnout with a few hours to go.

[Adam Griffin]

3 PM:

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1600256128432033792

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will there be any last statewide turnout update before results start trickling in?

[Tekken_Guy]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

There's barely any pathway whatsoever for Walker if ED turnout is below 1.4m. Mathematically, they do exist...but unless the EV simultaneously looked unprecedentedly Democratic yet voted for Walker at much higher than expected levels, it's a hard needle to thread.

Best bet for Walker is a big late day surge, still possible - but agree it looks like a very narrow path if we're at 70-75% of November ED turnout with a few hours to go.

Especially if Dems perform much stronger than usual due to the lines on EV.

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

There's barely any pathway whatsoever for Walker if ED turnout is below 1.4m.

Is there any reason to expect ED turnout to outpace November?

The only real scenario I could see where this materializes is if long wait times during EV in the metro led to more Democrats waiting to vote until ED. I suppose absent of that we could still see that happen, but just barely (for reference, ED ballots cast in the Senate race in November = 1,413,719).