Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Badger]

I have about changed course.

I thought Moore could be expelled for denying writing part of the yearbook notation.  I believe he wrote the potion below the signature.  Still think there is a strong possibility Nelson manufactured the signature. After some research I have found that almost nothing during a campaign, except corruption can get a Senator expelled. I guess that is best.  If lying was a grounds, there would be no one in the Senate.

I am not sure there would even be grounds for an ethics hearing.  Would he lie under oath?

Moore is a nut.  I do not want him in the Senate. I also think he is mean personally and publicly. I hate Bannon.

I would now join Senator Shelby in casting a write in vote.

If people like me change, Jones may have a chance.  He needs to run ads that Moore, if elected, can not be expelled.

I do think you should have run a true Blue Dog.

There's Hope for everyone I guess

And In fairness oh, do you really think it would make a difference to 99% of more voters? I mean Christ, Trump called the man who spent his entire career enforcing the law rather than breaking it like his closest Chums and Roy Moore " bad on crime". We can run Richard Shelby changing back to a Democrat tomorrow and 99% of more voters would just consider him another Democrat who would support liberalism.

[Badger]

A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

Wut?

4 realises??

Link plz

[Badger]

The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.

Yeah, I’d be overjoyed if it was even 40-43%

Hell, hitting one third turn out, or even just breaking 30% would probably be enough for Jones to win

[Badger]

I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF

[Badger]

I want to know how the heavily Republican counties are on turnout.

Especially rural ones.

[Badger]

I want to know how the heavily Republican counties are on turnout.

Especially rural ones.

That's what is so annoying about twitter on election day. Journalists and others NEVER travel to rural precincts to report. It is annoying.

Bingo.

[Badger]

Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Lynx please?

[Badger]

One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??

I can’t even begin to imagine a Clinton-Moore voter.

There was one quoted in poll LinkedIn one of these threads, quoting a woman I believe in her 40s from the Birmingham area who voted for Clinton, but called the accusations against Roy Moore, and I quote, a complete Hatchet job. She said if she supported a candidate who did those kind of things it would only encourage more of such things.

So much for breaking the glass ceiling

[Badger]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.

All evangelicals, or just white evangelicals? If the former, this includes a lot of African American evangelicals who aren't blinded by lockstep Republican voting to believe the accusations

[Badger]

Moore camp is not feeling confident.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344

Oh. My. God. I don't want to get my hopes up but the signs are everywhere

This is the best news I've heard all night. I'm still waiting for some evidence of turnout in Republican counties, especially real ones. The report of low turnout in Baldwin County was encouraging, but I really want to hear what turn out is like in the sticks from a reliable source.

[Badger]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.

All evangelicals, or just white evangelicals? If the former, this includes a lot of African American evangelicals who aren't blinded by lockstep Republican voting to believe the accusations

Ah, good point.  I hadn't considered that.

Actually, a graphic a few posts below this one answered the question. 72% of white evangelicals believe the child sexual harassment charges against more are either definitely false or, as most of them say oh, probably false. 82% of Republicans believe the charges are definitely or probably false

[Badger]

Moore camp is not feeling confident.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344

Oh. My. God. I don't want to get my hopes up but the signs are everywhere

This is the best news I've heard all night. I'm still waiting for some evidence of turnout in Republican counties, especially real ones. The report of low turnout in Baldwin County was encouraging, but I really want to hear what turn out is like in the sticks from a reliable source.

Baldwin County is not low overall.

Really? I don't want to find the post in this nearly 50 pages of thread with new posts interrupting every third attempt at posting, but there was a news report from the primary Baldwin County newspaper posted hearing that reported light turnout. Do you have other sources? I mean that sincerely rather than as a challenge because, much like 2016, all these huge Urban turn out reports from the media in the big city won't matter for squat if all the rural non black belt counties are turning out in considerable numbers as well.

[Badger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You know what they need? A good old white southern democrat.

No, they need Doug Jones who will make an awesome senator

[Badger]

Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

[Badger]

We've got an hour left and I've heard no reports or any rumors of a rural surge. Fingers crossed

Not to be pedantic, but if you heard any reports are rumors of a depressed rural vote either? I don't recall any reports of a rural vote surge on Election night last year, but it sure as hell happened.

I hate to throw ice water on optimism, but until there is some tangible reports of how expected Republican counties are doing, the surgeon voting in urban areas could simply be 2016 all over again.

The reports of the more campaign being concerned over the exit poll results is the one bit of evidence giving me serious hope tonight.

[Badger]

Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.

45 not 35 was what the judge said if i remember right

It was either 45 turnout 35 jones or 35 turnout 45 jones. Idr which one.

45

He predicted 35% turnout with Jones carrying perhaps 45%. If true, more is seriously f*****

[Badger]

weren't we a bit more optimistic a couple of pages....anyway the thread on reddit politics is downright depressing

I won't believe it til I see it. 45% of the vote in Baldwin County is the biggest troll job ever

True dat

[Badger]

OMFG! I accidentally went to page 55 of the 2017 special election thread that momentarily climbed above this one, and read that the NYT had called the race for Moore at about 55-45.

Then I realized this was regarding the runoff. I nearly had a heart attack.

[Badger]

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !

Here is a sentence to destroy any irrational enthusiasm.

"No results from Shelby County yet."

That said, the same is true or largely true for a bunch of rural black belt counties.

[Badger]

Russell County, a black belt county Hillary narrowly won with a plurality, now 100% in.

IF one extrapolates a similar statewide shift (Jones cleaned up), and IF one assumes Johnson/Stein/ whoever voters stayed home or did write-ins......

Jones wins by about half a percent.

Be still my heart.


Oh! And barely jack in from Montgomery!

[Badger]

Real question is what is left inside Jefferson County.  If it is like what it is so far then Jones wins.  If its a reversion to the mean then Moore has a shot.

What's more important is what's coming out of Mobile. A little over 5% in and Jones is killing there SO FAR. Also less than 5% out of Montgomery. Jones will romp in the latter, but the real question is how does his % hold up in Mobile. Also, his numbers in Baldwin are just under 30%. There's a lot left there.

In short, watch the two gulf counties.

[Badger]

55/190 now in Mobile Jones holding above 60%.

23/24 in Swing Lee/Auburn 55.7 - 42.3 Jones.

83/172 Jefferson Jones still above 80%.

51/73 Madison 55.6 - 41.3 Jones

38/99 Montgomery 72% Jones

What has to hurt Moore: Suburban Elmore, Autauga, St. Clair, Blount, Cullman, Walker, Jackson, Limestone, Lauderdale, and Colbert are nearly all in - only a handful of precincts remaining in all of them. Only Baldwin and Shelby Suburban counties left.

Jones still high on NYT

And Shelby is over 60% in.

[Badger]

LOLZ. WHERE IS YOUR MODEL NOW?

Hopefully Kenobi will fyck off for another 6 months without bothering us.

Anyhoo.


HE DID IT!!!!!

[Badger]

The CNN hacks are speaking of this race as a referendum on Trump .... Yes, Trump "endorsed" Moore, but he hardly put the full prestige of the White House behind Moore.  

.... (Indeed, Bannon is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, behind Moore.)

If Trump has half a brain, he'll meet with Jones and discuss common ground.

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

1. This is a BIG middle-finger to trump! Yuge!
2. trump is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, Bannon is 3rd.
3. LOL at you thinking that "trump has half a brain." He just recently tweeted to another Senator suggesting that she should be "begging" (trump put that in quotes), which was a sexist smear to women, and you think that trump can activate "half a brain?"  Who are you kidding ?

IMHO,

1) Wrong. Enough Trump voters swallowed their distaste of voting Democratic (even a good one like Jones) out of revulsion for Moore. If Jones had done anything CLOSE to making this a referendum on Trump, we'd be bemoaning Senator-elect Moore.
2) Irrelevant. They all lost big time.
3) Absolutely on track.

[Badger]

There is no reason to EVER run a pro-life Dem again.

Unless, say, they're running in a socially conservative state against a NON-pedophile.