Why did the polls have Trump ahead in Nevada?

[super6646]

If there was one state the polls overestimated Trump, it was Nevada. The RCP had him up by 0.8%, which was a bit surprising (I personally thought it would go Democratic). So why did the polls show him up in Nevada, when his performance was underestimated in every other swing state?

Nevada RCP average: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

Map with no tossups (you can see the polling for each state by clicking on it): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

[TheSaint250]

Nevada's always been screwy with the polls.

[Beet]

Nevada is a hard state to poll because a huge number of people lost their addresses during the housing bust. They were evicted from bad mortgages and had to move somewhere else. It's a very transient state. I assume the transients, who are more likely to be low-income, were underpolled.

[TheSaint250]

Nevada is a hard state to poll because a huge number of people lost their addresses during the housing bust. They were evicted from bad mortgages and had to move somewhere else. It's a very transient state. I assume the transients, who are more likely to be low-income, were underpolled.

Is that really the reason? I never knew that. I just assumed it was just bad polling.

This does make sense

[Xing]

Polls have often had a Republican bias in Nevada, often because native Spanish speakers are underpolled.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

He lost it but barely. He got creamed in the early vote but performed incredibly on election day.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

There's also a Democratic machine in the state which is very effective at turning out low-propensity voters (turnout was 76%).

[Matty]

There's also a Democratic machine in the state which is very effective at turning out low-propensity voters (turnout was 76%).

This is absolutely the answer. The casino/hotel service worker unions in the Las Vegas metropolitan area are the most well-oiled GOTV/early vote machines in the entire country. A lot of that is connected to Reid and his apparatus.

Dare I say it was the ONLY reason she won the state. Hillary got swamped on election day in nevada, but it didn't even matter.

[Senator Spark]

Under sampling of Hispanics