Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH

[The Other Castro]

There are still some questions about whether FOX will count multiple polls from the same source for the 5 most recent polls, and what to do for polls completed by the same date. FOX is the 2nd and 5th most recent poll in Iowa, and is the 1st and 4th most recent poll nationally. Also, FOX, DMR, and Loras Iowa polls were all completed on the same day, but DMR was published a day earlier so it is now kicked from the average. Likewise, ABC and Monmouth national polls were completed on the same day, but Monmouth came out earlier so that too is gone.

For Paul to make it in, he probably needs to overtake Bush nationally or in Iowa. Right now, Bush is leading Paul by a net 6 points both nationally and in Iowa. However, new polls would drop the oldest polls, which wouldn't change the Iowa numbers but would change the national numbers. Bush would still lead by 6 in Iowa, but his lead nationally would drop to 3 net points. So for Paul to make it in, he needs either another national poll with him leading Bush by 3, or two Iowa polls with him leading Bush by a combined net 2 points.

[bigedlb]

Two polls from IA Next week, probably not in time.,,,  PPP and Overtime Politics

[The Other Castro]

Two polls from IA Next week, probably not in time.,,,  PPP and Overtime Politics

Neither would qualify under Fox's criteria anyway.

[/]

So really Kasich is the only one who still has a chance of being in either now?

[The Other Castro]

Unless a new poll comes in very soon, I think these are our final polls:
Nationally: IBD, FOX, CNN, Quinnipiac, FOX
Iowa: Quinnipiac, FOX, Marist, Quinnipiac, Loras
New Hampshire: ARG, Monmouth, FOX, Marist, ARG

[The Other Castro]

[Holmes]

Well good for Kasich for qualifying to being a punching bag for Trump.

[The Other Castro]

With new ARG Iowa Poll:

[Holmes]

Paul will have a tantrum until he's included in the main debate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Paul will have a tantrum until he's included in the main debate.

I'm not quite sure if tantrum is the right word, he's not going to be sponsoring protests outside the debate hall or anything. But he has been very clear that if Fox Biz refuses to let him into the main debate, he won't participate in the kiddie table. The question is if Fox Biz will be like CNN and decide that letting him into the main debate is better than excluding him entirely, or if they hold firm. Personally, I hope they hold firm - Paul needs to realize that his candidacy is a mere shadow of his father's, and drop out.

[The Other Castro]

Business Insider thinks ARG polls won't be used, but that Kasich will still make it in.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fox-business-gop-debate-field-2016-1

[yankeesfan]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/rand-paul-main-debate-stage-217568

"Paul insists he'll be on main stage for GOP debate"

[This account no longer in use.]

Looks like Paul's attempts to pander to the establishment are finally bringing him down.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Rand just now said on CNN he will not participate in the debate and potentially another candidate may not as well.

[This account no longer in use.]

Rand just now said on CNN he will not participate in the debate and potentially another candidate may not as well.

Is he talking about Jim Gilmore?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rand just now said on CNN he will not participate in the debate and potentially another candidate may not as well.

Fiorina's staff have been tweeting about how she is in 5th/6th in certain national polls, so maybe he means her. In which case, the kids table would be between Huckabee and Santorum - oh my god. On the bright side though, maybe the prospect of having a two-person kiddie debate will convince the network to give Gilmore another chance.

[The Free North]

Rand just now said on CNN he will not participate in the debate and potentially another candidate may not as well.

Rand has come off as childish and ill-tempered this entire campaign and I suppose this is just the final iteration before the inevitable fade to black in a few weeks time.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Rand just now said on CNN he will not participate in the debate and potentially another candidate may not as well.

Rand has come off as childish and ill-tempered this entire campaign and I suppose this is just the final iteration before the inevitable fade to black in a few weeks time.

He said talks of him dropping out before Super Tuesday are just fantasies as well.

[gf20202]

Carly's only life blood in this campaign has been the debates. No chance she passes on the chance to school Huck and Santorum. If Christie can suck it up, she can.

The exclusions should really help Trump and Cruz. Trump ducks his most successful foil in Fiorina and Cruz has the vaguely libertarian lane to himself absent Rand, while the establishment continues to split time and votes.

[This account no longer in use.]

Actually, I'd be completely fine with watching Huck and Frothy try to out-Jesus freak each other.

[The Other Castro]

[Miles]

Paul isn't debating.

[Asian Nazi]

Paul isn't debating.

On the one hand, this might make the debate actually watchable.  On the other hand, we won't have Paul to further discredit the lolbertarian ideology on national television with his insane rambling.

[yankeesfan]

Kasich shouldn't make it either but this is a start.

[Slow Learner]

The sooner we see the back of Paul, the better.