The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And one of the things I was thinking with Hart was this: She's been known to have statewide ambitions, and was mentioned as a candidate in 2010, either for Senate or Governor (there'll most likely be two open seats). Well if Hart runs against Altmire again in 2008 and loses, she's done. But if she wins, her chances of winning in 2010 don't really improve any. She could just lay low for two years and run in 2010 and not risk a loss ruining her 2010 chances.

And even if she does run and win, she vacates the seat in 2010, meaning Altmire would likely win it back. So we get the seat in the end either way.

[MarkWarner08]

And one of the things I was thinking with Hart was this: She's been known to have statewide ambitions, and was mentioned as a candidate in 2010, either for Senate or Governor (there'll most likely be two open seats). Well if Hart runs against Altmire again in 2008 and loses, she's done. But if she wins, her chances of winning in 2010 don't really improve any. She could just lay low for two years and run in 2010 and not risk a loss ruining her 2010 chances.

And even if she does run and win, she vacates the seat in 2010, meaning Altmire would likely win it back. So we get the seat in the end either way.

Why would Altmire win in 2010?  That could be a midterm for a Democratic President, and voters would be more inclined to support a Republican.

[Chesco ABB]

Just curious, any idea who the GOP will get in PA-10? Phil, as you probably
know, there were a lot of Philly suburban RINO's (myself included) who voted for Kerry as well as the Bush Dems out in SW PA and elsewhere.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

It pretty much is. 

For someone who has traveled through the district to see family many times, I see development in this old union area that doesn't match what it once was. The young professionals are moving in in droves. This isn't Joe Union territory anymore.

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

Then why'd it vote for Kerry (even though by the narrowest of margins)? I doubt it was because of social issues turning them off to Bush.

You'll never accept the argument but Pennsylvanians, for the most part, stick with their registration in Presidential elections.

Well in that case it sounds like Anoka County in Minnesota. The thing is though, if Minnesota had party registration, it would've been overwhelmingly DFL in the past, but not anymore (for example, we can look at the stage leg races, the only parts that still elect Democrats are the lower part which is basically just a less blighted version of north Minneapolis [Although Phil Krinkie lost last election. I'm STILL trying to figure out how the hell that happened.]) All the new "young professionals" would be Republicans. People don't register for a new party that's opposite their views just because they move to an area where that's the majority party.

[Keystone Phil]

And one of the things I was thinking with Hart was this: She's been known to have statewide ambitions, and was mentioned as a candidate in 2010, either for Senate or Governor (there'll most likely be two open seats). Well if Hart runs against Altmire again in 2008 and loses, she's done. But if she wins, her chances of winning in 2010 don't really improve any. She could just lay low for two years and run in 2010 and not risk a loss ruining her 2010 chances.

And even if she does run and win, she vacates the seat in 2010, meaning Altmire would likely win it back. So we get the seat in the end either way.

Your logic is flawed. Hart running again in 2010, while possible, is unlikely at this point. She screwed up her plans for the future so she'd have to stay in the seat for awhile.

Just curious, any idea who the GOP will get in PA-10?

There are a number of State Representatives and a State Senator who are believed to be interested in the race. 2004 Auditor General nominee and former Justice Department official Joe Peters is definetley in the running already. Check out - http://politics1.com/pa.htm - for a full listing.

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I understand that but there are also very partisan voters in Philly suburbs who insist on sticking with the GOP and SW Dems that still go for the Dems out of tradition.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I used to live in PA-15.  It's quickly becoming a New York City (!) commuter district, despite being 70 or 80 miles from the city.  The cities of Bethlehem and Allentown have been rotting on the vine since Bethlehem Steel died.  Meanwhile, the "suburbs" are quickly booming with new development.

It used to be a Reagan Democrat district, but the unions are fast disappearing.  It's becoming a commuter Republican district.

Looking at election trends, suburban Essex County NJ was the first to go Democrat after long being a GOP stronghold, then Union County's suburbs fell to Democrats, now Somerset County is moving towards the toss-up column, and Hunterdon County's 2006 results show a marked decrease in GOP performance over years prior.

The reason: exurb-loving Republicans are moving west.  $500,000 goes a lot farther in PA-15 than it does in NJ-07.  Just about everyone I grew up with in High School ten years ago moved to Pennsylvania to start their families.

Dent was incredibly popular in his Democratic-leaning Allentown (city) based District, and he's a terrific fit for the swing district.  I expect him to run statewide at some point, possibly for Senate -- the Lehigh Valley is influential enough to deserve its own statewide candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I used to live in PA-15.  It's quickly becoming a New York City (!) commuter district, despite being 70 or 80 miles from the city.  The cities of Bethlehem and Allentown have been rotting on the vine since Bethlehem Steel died.  Meanwhile, the "suburbs" are quickly booming with new development.

Fun with census/ACS figures:

Numbers on the left 2005 ACS, on the right 2000 census.

The first set of numbers are for the entire U.S:

A: 34.0  33.6
B: 23.0  24.0
C: 39.0  38.9
D: 27.2  24.4
E: 33.1  33.8
F: $46,242  $41,994

The second set are for PA-15:

A: 35.1  32.4
B: 23.0  26.5
C: 37.3  40.4
D: 26.6  22.2
E: 26.4  28.4
F: $52,010  $45,330

A: % employed in managerial/professional occupations
B: % employed in traditional blue collar occupations
C: % employed in traditional blue collar occupations + blue collar service occupations
D: % with bachelor's degree or higher
E: % renting
F: median hh income

---
The area is definitely changing. Welcome to the forum, btw.

[Keystone Phil]

I used to live in PA-15.  It's quickly becoming a New York City (!) commuter district, despite being 70 or 80 miles from the city.  The cities of Bethlehem and Allentown have been rotting on the vine since Bethlehem Steel died.  Meanwhile, the "suburbs" are quickly booming with new development.

It used to be a Reagan Democrat district, but the unions are fast disappearing.  It's becoming a commuter Republican district.

Looking at election trends, suburban Essex County NJ was the first to go Democrat after long being a GOP stronghold, then Union County's suburbs fell to Democrats, now Somerset County is moving towards the toss-up column, and Hunterdon County's 2006 results show a marked decrease in GOP performance over years prior.

The reason: exurb-loving Republicans are moving west.  $500,000 goes a lot farther in PA-15 than it does in NJ-07.  Just about everyone I grew up with in High School ten years ago moved to Pennsylvania to start their families.

Dent was incredibly popular in his Democratic-leaning Allentown (city) based District, and he's a terrific fit for the swing district.  I expect him to run statewide at some point, possibly for Senate -- the Lehigh Valley is influential enough to deserve its own statewide candidate.

Excellent post.

[MarkWarner08]

Charlie Dent is endorsing Rudy Giuliani. This is anexcellent move that will help both of them.

If Romney is the nominee, Dent will be hurt by the weakness of a flip-flopper on the top of the ticket. If McCain is the nominee, Dent will be hit hard on Iraq. If Brownback is the nominee, then Dent would lose to an inanimate carbon rod.


Giuliani is the only Republican candidate charismatic and popular enough to help moderate Republicans like Dent feel safe in 2008.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dent probably doesn't have to worry about any of those scenarios too much.  Lehigh Valley Democrats couldn't even get someone on the primary ballot last time.

[Keystone Phil]

Charlie Dent is endorsing Rudy Giuliani. This is anexcellent move that will help both of them.

If Romney is the nominee, Dent will be hurt by the weakness of a flip-flopper on the top of the ticket. If McCain is the nominee, Dent will be hit hard on Iraq. If Brownback is the nominee, then Dent would lose to an inanimate carbon rod.


Giuliani is the only Republican candidate charismatic and popular enough to help moderate Republicans like Dent feel safe in 2008.

Dent is a RINO. Therefore, he endorsed Rudy.

Dent probably doesn't have to worry about any of those scenarios too much.  Lehigh Valley Democrats couldn't even get someone on the primary ballot last time.

While we are inclined to believe that Dent is fine, the Dems are doing some major recruiting.