2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.

NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.

[lfromnj]

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.

NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.

do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.

[lfromnj]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

If Dems couldn’t even come close to winning the legislative chambers in PA and WI in a year as good as 2018, they never will absent a substantial change in the district lines.  PA is a possibility in the next Republican President’s midterm (either 2026 or 2030) due to Dems very likely to get much more favorable lines there due to control of the state Supreme Court.

Pretty sure Biden won either 24 or 25 state senate districts.

State senate in PA can get fairly decent for Democrats even in an actual fair map due to the mid sized cities in larger counties like Lancaster/Berks and Erie all voting Dem. Statehouse and congress is pretty bad for them though.

[lfromnj]

I made a safe 3-0 map.

Why should anyone care? The maps are set and as far as I know there is no court action. Making a 3-0 R map in a state Trump won by 19 is not exactly difficult.

He's some Bot AI tested around the forum.