Wisconsin Megathread

[mcmikk]

I'm not about to go through this 38 page thread so I don't know for sure. Has anyone mentioned Andy Gronik yet?

https://andygronik.com/

He's a progressive businessman who wants to restore collective bargaining rights stripped away by Walker, wants to accept the ACA money Walker rejected, among other things. I don't think he has any particular aspect of him that sets him apart from other potential challengers, but what do you guys think of him? How would he fare in a primary/general election?

[mcmikk]

Any updates on Soglin's potential entrance into the Governor's race?

Nope, and I hope there isn't any.

Being a longtime mayor and a "muh Madison libruhl" would sink him instantly.

[mcmikk]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242977.0

Also:

It should be noted that NBC News/Marist had Hillary winning PA by 12 points in mid-October.

But yeah, they didn't poll WI in 2016. It was Marquette that showed Clinton up 6 in November, not NBC/Marist.

Look, I'm not saying he won't face a tough reelection battle, but it's way too early to count him out. Saying that there is no way he can win and basing it on numbers from a pollster who did poorly in 2016 and doing so 15 months before the election is ridiculous. WI isn't IL, as I'm sure Ron Johnson will tell you.

I'm still bitter about Ron Johnson...

[mcmikk]

So it appears that Tony Evers is in. He officially announced yesterday. He made a 15 minute announcement speech where he espoused many progressive values and he often seemed to link his ideas back to children and his career in education. He also made a 3 minute video which I have linked to here. What do y'all think of it?

[mcmikk]

So it appears that Tony Evers is in. He officially announced yesterday. He made a 15 minute announcement speech where he espoused many progressive values and he often seemed to link his ideas back to children and his career in education. He also made a 3 minute video which I have linked to here. What do y'all think of it?

So far, I like how he's presenting himself. I'm a bit pushed back by the fact that he uses Trump's remarks on Walker during the primary, but it may be a great move for moderates. I think he knows what he's doing. He's been very successful.

I thought those comments were particularly powerful. Even if Trump remains unpopular in Wisconsin next year, it'd be malpractice not to use that against Walker next year, particularly in Trumpy areas like western Wisconsin.

Yeah, that's what I mean by "he knows what he's doing." He understands the state well, so I'm trusting his moves here.

[mcmikk]

I love Evers' message, but he needs to be able to sound fired up, which I never got in the video.

No need to sound "fired up" in local Wisconsin politics. It's practically the norm to be exactly the opposite.

Really? We saw how control v emotion worked out the last cycle.

Yes, but at the same time 45 carried Wisconsin, we reelected a dead-behind-the-eyes, cookie cutter Republican as our Senator over Russ freakin' Feingold. Ron Johnson doesn't exactly have much in the charisma department.

[mcmikk]

I love Evers' message, but he needs to be able to sound fired up, which I never got in the video.

To be fair, people have to take Viagra to feel excited about Scott Walker

lol

[mcmikk]

I love Evers' message, but he needs to be able to sound fired up, which I never got in the video.

No need to sound "fired up" in local Wisconsin politics. It's practically the norm to be exactly the opposite.

Really? We saw how control v emotion worked out the last cycle.

Yes, but at the same time 45 carried Wisconsin, we reelected a dead-behind-the-eyes, cookie cutter Republican as our Senator over Russ freakin' Feingold. Ron Johnson doesn't exactly have much in the charisma department.

Johnson has charisma in the same way Walker does: perfect, aggressive normality.

[mcmikk]

So it appears that Tony Evers is in. He officially announced yesterday. He made a 15 minute announcement speech where he espoused many progressive values and he often seemed to link his ideas back to children and his career in education. He also made a 3 minute video which I have linked to here. What do y'all think of it?

I don't mean to be rude, but I don't think he has the looks for it.

[mcmikk]

It just doesn't seem like there's a good Dem who is strong enough to pull together the party here. Everything is so fractured. As it stands, I see a really low turnout on the Dem side for the primary and things not pulling together before the general. Walker could win just because the Dems can't get their act together at the state level.

I'm also terribly afraid for Tammy Baldwin. She's done excellently, but if the Dem turnout is low because of the previously mentioned governor mess, she's toast.

I think Baldwin will be fine. crossover appeal(?)

>implying The Plank has any crossover appeal as a gay female uber-leftie, she's no Herb Kohl.

I do think she's still favored at the moment because I still believe Wisconsin is a battleground, not suddenly Titanium R, but 2018 will be a big test to see if Wisconsin is truly shifting to the right for good or if it will remain a major battleground.

[mcmikk]

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That's BIG, but it doesn't surprise me. Evers is a powerhouse in Wisconsin.

I wonder if Evers will try to convince Vinehout to run in the LG primary as sort of a unity non-Madison/Milwaukee-based ticket. I think they'd be well-balanced geographically.

That would be an interesting choice, and would absolutely neutralize Walker's talking points.

I say that would be a good idea. Evers is a much stronger and more personally preferable candidate than Vinehout imo, but Republicans attacks on "muh Madison/Milwaukee liberal urban elite" would be less strong if the whole ticket hailed from outside there(doesn't mean they won't try, but still). Excited to see the Kohl endorsement. I wonder if Evers will have access to any of that sweet sweet Herb Kohl money.

[mcmikk]

Evers has to be the favorite right now, if only because Wachs and Vinehout share a regional base, and Wachs just got endorsed by Dave Obey.

Evers really should probably point out to Vinehout that she probably has no chance in the primary and get her to run as his LG. She'd help him balance the ticket with a woman and she's from a key part of the state.

I agree, plus the WI GOP can't attack them very well for being "muh liberal Madison elitists" and Democrats don't want to have a super competitive primary. Imo Evers is my personal favorite and also the favorite to win the nomination. I think he would be a stronger GE candidate than Vinehout.

[mcmikk]

Evers has to be the favorite right now, if only because Wachs and Vinehout share a regional base, and Wachs just got endorsed by Dave Obey.

Wait, is the Obey endorsement supposed to be a negative or am I reading this wrong...?

[mcmikk]

"Madison Mayor Paul Soglin says he will 'most likely' run for governor in 2018"

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http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-mayor-paul-soglin-says-he-will-most-likely-run/article_7bdfbd6b-242f-5e11-ba96-74bfb0686ead.html

Dear god please no.

[mcmikk]

Arch, why don't you like him? Is it because he's a bad mayor or is the whole Castro support too much to handle?

Hmm... how do I explain it. He's been an institution in Madison for way too long and supports questionable policies and takes questionable positions:

1) On Trump post-election:

https://isthmus.com/news/news/madison%E2%80%99s-lefty-mayor-has-hope-for-trump/

2) Attempting to implement measures to prevent the homeless from sleeping in certain areas rather than working to end the problem:

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/mayor-paul-soglin-reintroduces-proposal-to-limit-sleeping-by-homeless/article_fdfb189a-23e1-5bc5-82fa-047d41505d89.html

3) Running his mouth on job creation (false claims)

http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2017/jul/05/paul-soglin/madison-mayor-understates-wisconsin-job-growth-ove/

So on and so forth. His ties to Castro won't help his image statewide, and the fact that he is literally THE MAYOR of Madison does nothing to stop Walker's electoral stupidity machine of "muh surrounded buh realituh."

Then there's the fact that he's been here for so long, and we've had other options, and we've ditched them in favor of keeping this guy in there. The older voters in the city, especially, love him.

I just think, no, I'm pretty sure he's going to end up being another Barrett should he win the primary.

Also my thoughts exactly.

[mcmikk]

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This guy is probably right, to be honest. Evers is by far the best candidate. Vinehout is second-best, Wachs I suppose is third, and everyone else running is a nobody.

[mcmikk]

The WI GOP really is the worst of the worst.

[mcmikk]

Tony Evers responded to this pretty well tbh. Not sure if this is gonna change the minds of any #DrainTheSwamp folks, but oh well.

#bygolly

[mcmikk]

Tony Evers [urlhttps://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/935147755399516160]responded to this pretty well tbh.[/url] Not sure if this is gonna change the minds of any #DrainTheSwamp folks, but oh well.

#bygolly

Walker is scum.

Shocker. I'd rather Vukmir win the primary so I can watch her get clobbered along with the rest of the state GOP establishment. Opportunist Trumpists like Nicholson are preferable to the WI GOP.

[mcmikk]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

No. He's plagued by FoxConn backroom deals, the attorney scandal with Evers, and the fact that nothing positive has really gotten done in the last 8 years. If Wisconsin follows suit with its history, it should flip.

This. Not to mention he has some pretty bad numbers to be going into 2018 with, and liberals have some pretty good numbers. Democrats have a bouquet of issues that they can go to town on Walker with. Foxconn, obviously, but also infrastructure, education(Evers would be good at that), gerrymandering, Medicaid expansion, etc.

The PPP poll I linked to has Medicaid expansion at 59% support. Walker has refused to expand it. 44% think that the state legislative districts are not fairly drawn, and 63% think they should be drawn by an independent commission. 57% are very concerned with the waiving away of environmental regulations on behalf of Foxconn. 38%(still a plurality) think that public roads have gotten worse under the Walker administration. 49%(plurality) think Walker is only making the deal with Foxconn to help him get reelected. 48% think public schools have gotten worse under Walker. 44% think Walker is too much of a Trump lackey. 44% support the ACA compared to 38% opposition. 56% at least somewhat support sanctuary cities.

These are just really lackluster numbers for Walker, and conservatives in general. Needless to say, my bets are on him losing.

[mcmikk]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

No. He's plagued by FoxConn backroom deals, the attorney scandal with Evers, and the fact that nothing positive has really gotten done in the last 8 years. If Wisconsin follows suit with its history, it should flip.

This. Not to mention he has some pretty bad numbers to be going into 2018 with, and liberals have some pretty good numbers. Democrats have a bouquet of issues that they can go to town on Walker with. Foxconn, obviously, but also infrastructure, education(Evers would be good at that), gerrymandering, Medicaid expansion, etc.

The PPP poll I linked to has Medicaid expansion at 59% support. Walker has refused to expand it. 44% think that the state legislative districts are not fairly drawn, and 63% think they should be drawn by an independent commission. 57% are very concerned with the waiving away of environmental regulations on behalf of Foxconn. 38%(still a plurality) think that public roads have gotten worse under the Walker administration. 49%(plurality) think Walker is only making the deal with Foxconn to help him get reelected. 48% think public schools have gotten worse under Walker. 44% think Walker is too much of a Trump lackey. 44% support the ACA compared to 38% opposition. 56% at least somewhat support sanctuary cities.

These are just really lackluster numbers for Walker, and conservatives in general. Needless to say, my bets are on him losing.

Do these views on the issues necessarily translate to anti-Walker votes, though?

I'm fairly liberal-ish on immigration, for example, but I wouldn't necessarily vote for a Democrat based on that.

Not necessarily, no. But it shows that liberals generally have the advantage right now. I'm more minding the numbers on Medicaid expansion, education, infrastructure, various Foxconn shenanigans, and gerrymandering, all issues where Walker has a pretty bad track record on. Democrats(hopefully Evers) can make hay of these issues in the general election, especially in a national environment that will likely be heavily slanted against Walker. Basically, I'm not buying the hot takes saying this contest is Lean or Likely R. It's pure toss-up at this point until we can get more accurate readings on the race.

[mcmikk]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

[mcmikk]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

My prediction is that Walker goes down. I think whichever party wins the Senate race is also winning the Governor's mansion, and since I really can't see Baldwin losing, I can't really see Walker losing either, unless both contests end up razor-thin.

[mcmikk]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

My prediction is that Walker goes down. I think whichever party wins the Senate race is also winning the Governor's mansion, and since I really can't see Baldwin losing, I can't really see Walker losing either, unless both contests end up razor-thin.

People also said that about the recall though. Yet both Walker and Obama won easily, even with the granny killer on the ticket.

That said, I never really bought that line of reasoning. There was obviously going to be a contingent of voters that may not have liked Walker and/or were not solid supporters, but thought the recall went too far. No doubt that Baldwin/Walker voters would be totally schizophrenic, but it wouldn't be the first nor the last time voters showed that type of schizophrenia. Lol

Personally, I think he's in for the toughest fight of his political career, but is slightly favored. If there does end up being a wave though, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up getting pulled under.

One problem with that: The recall was not on the same day as the general election in 2012. The recall took place in June.

Regardless, I think the race is pure toss-up at this point. Walker as well as the various Democrats running have their own advantages and disadvantages, and there are just too many variables for me to make a good judgement at this point.

If the political landscape stays as it is, and Evers emerges as the nominee, or it looks like Tammy Baldwin is headed towards routing her opponent, I would probably say then that Walker is the underdog. For now, it's even.

[mcmikk]

Evers is still the favorite, but I think Mitchell has a real chance in a very large field, if only because he will clean up in Milwaukee with Moore's machine behind him. He's also got the firefighters union. I'd put him at #2 right now, just past Vinehout.

Mitchell could probably get the possibly get the pull of all the unions in Wisconsin.

You think the teachers unions would back him over Evers? I find that highly unlikely.

I agree. Also, nice sig Nhoj