Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Stranger in a strange land]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

NO, he's FAVORED to win reelection because his approvals are going to shoot up to 70% when he orders the invasion of North Korea and the Russia scandal turns out to be a nothingburger.

[Holmes]

Trump at 32-55 in Erie county, PA.

http://www.politicspa.com/mercyhurst-poll-trump-congress-and-news-media-underwater-in-erie-county/85185/

Biden would beat Obama's 20 point margin in the county from 2008.

[Brittain33]

Gallup

34 (+1)
62 (nc)

[TheSaint250]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

NO, he's FAVORED to win reelection because his approvals are going to shoot up to 70% when he orders the invasion of North Korea and the Russia scandal turns out to be a nothingburger.

lol

[IceSpear]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

[BudgieForce]

Someone on twitter made an interesting point that even Hoover won 40% of the vote with people literally starving in the streets.

[Pericles]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

[IceSpear]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

[Pericles]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Saying someone is mentally unbalanced is a pretty extreme thing to say, I'm pretty surprised 51% of the country thinks he's mentally unbalanced when it seems like a left-wing belief but less believable for many swing voters. If 51% think he's unbalanced, and likely more are concerned or disapprove of him elsewhere, then the crop of swing voters is on whether Trump gets to 40% not 45% or 50%. And Trump only overcame his unfavorables because Clinton had a -14% favorability rating. He won the people who disliked both him and Clinton, and probably them because of the Comey letter. The Democrats will probably nominate a better candidate next time so then he will be in deep trouble.

[IceSpear]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Saying someone is mentally unbalanced is a pretty extreme thing to say, I'm pretty surprised 51% of the country thinks he's mentally unbalanced when it seems like a left-wing belief but less believable for many swing voters. If 51% think he's unbalanced, and likely more are concerned or disapprove of him elsewhere, then the crop of swing voters is on whether Trump gets to 40% not 45% or 50%. And Trump only overcame his unfavorables because Clinton had a -14% favorability rating. He won the people who disliked both him and Clinton, and probably them because of the Comey letter. The Democrats will probably nominate a better candidate next time so then he will be in deep trouble.

I guess that's where we disagree. I think most of the people who saw him and Clinton unfavorably (and, oh so coincidentally, broke massively in his favor) will also see any Democrat unfavorably after they are subjected to a year+ long smear campaign, then they will yet again rationalize a reason to pull the lever for Trump.

Not that the mentally unbalanced question is good for him. Obviously if it's accurate and the election was held today he'd lose, possibly by a decent margin. Just that it isn't as bad as it might look at first glance when you actually delve into the numbers, especially when you consider that these days "undecided/don't know" tends to mean "embarrassed Trump supporter."

[BlueSwan]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

This is unfortunately very true. Looking at approvals/favourables nothing much has changed since the election and he "won" that election. I guess the one thing that has changed in some way is that Trump has now proved without a doubt that he is Trump, while some people may have rationalized that he would somehow be different in office to the person he had been for 70 years. That argument is dead. Hopefully that is enough to ensure that he won't win.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Because he was running against someone with 41/54 favourable/unfavourable on the day of the election, which is not much better. Swing voters had an unfavourable view of both Clinton and Trump, so why would you have expected them to vote against the latter? The voters you're talking about "rationalised" a vote for Trump because his opponent had been under investigation by the FBI...
 

[Yank2133]

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I don't think this will be the case for any potential Democratic nominee outside of maybe Elizabeth Warren.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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I don't think this will be the case for any potential Democratic nominee outside of maybe Elizabeth Warren.

Obama was subject to a four year-long smear campaign and kept his favourabilities in the 50s, so the excuse for Clinton that any Democratic nominee would have had equally bad favourabilities is simply wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 10/31

Approve 35 (+1)
Disapprove 61 (-1)

[Yank2133]

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I don't think this will be the case for any potential Democratic nominee outside of maybe Elizabeth Warren.

Obama was subject to a four year-long smear campaign and kept his favourabilities in the 50s, so the excuse for Clinton that any Democratic nominee would have had equally bad favourabilities is simply wrong.

Agreed.

[Virginiá]

Gallup, 10/31

Approve 35 (+1)
Disapprove 61 (-1)

Looks like around 33% could be his absolute floor at this current point in time. Not that that isn't super low as it is, though.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Gallup, 10/31

Approve 35 (+1)
Disapprove 61 (-1)

Looks like around 33% could be his absolute floor at this current point in time. Not that that isn't super low as it is, though.

Or that the 33% was an outlier.

[Virginiá]

Or that the 33% was an outlier.

Maybe, but Trump has been at 34% for multiple days in a row before, so it's not out of the question.

[Pericles]

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I don't think this will be the case for any potential Democratic nominee outside of maybe Elizabeth Warren.

Obama was subject to a four year-long smear campaign and kept his favourabilities in the 50s, so the excuse for Clinton that any Democratic nominee would have had equally bad favourabilities is simply wrong.

Yes. Clinton was a uniquely bad and unpopular candidate, and even she'd still have won without Comey and/or Russia.

[IceSpear]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Because he was running against someone with 41/54 favourable/unfavourable on the day of the election, which is not much better. Swing voters had an unfavourable view of both Clinton and Trump, so why would you have expected them to vote against the latter? The voters you're talking about "rationalised" a vote for Trump because his opponent had been under investigation by the FBI...

41-54 is actually quite a bit better than 38-60. And why would you "expect them" to vote for Trump either then? Yet they did. And a lot of them weren't "swing voters", they were embarrassed/shy Trump supporters.

As for Obama, he had the media on his side. Hillary didn't. Only time will tell if whoever ends up being the nominee in 2020 does or doesn't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov, Oct 29-31, 1500 adults

Approve 40 (Strongly 22)
Disapprove 52 (Strongly 41)

Lots of information in this one, here's a taste:

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

He's beginning to consistently hit 60% disapproval in polls.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup, 10/31

Approve 35 (+1)
Disapprove 61 (-1)

Looks like around 33% could be his absolute floor at this current point in time. Not that that isn't super low as it is, though.

We have yet to see the effects of the exposure of campaign cheating. If it can be connected to the President, then we have a worse situation than Watergate. At least Nixon had some achievements, and opposition to him was not ideological.

 

[Pericles]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Because he was running against someone with 41/54 favourable/unfavourable on the day of the election, which is not much better. Swing voters had an unfavourable view of both Clinton and Trump, so why would you have expected them to vote against the latter? The voters you're talking about "rationalised" a vote for Trump because his opponent had been under investigation by the FBI...

41-54 is actually quite a bit better than 38-60. And why would you "expect them" to vote for Trump either then? Yet they did. And a lot of them weren't "swing voters", they were embarrassed/shy Trump supporters.

As for Obama, he had the media on his side. Hillary didn't. Only time will tell if whoever ends up being the nominee in 2020 does or doesn't.

41/54 and 38/60 are both poor and at that point the voters who did view them favorably didn't decide the election, it was the ones who viewed then unfavorably. There is no such thing as a shy Trump effect and absolutely no evidence it actually happened. The explanation is much simpler, those voters were undecided and swinging throughout the campaign and swung to Trump at the end due to Comey. There may have been some reluctant Republicans in there who made Trump's base higher than 38% but that simply meant Clinton and Trump were really equal and she didn't have the advantage.