UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[afleitch]

To 'win' any GB poll, given the fact that the SNP and her personally have suffered quite astounding negativity is impressive.

[Phony Moderate]

You Gov Debate Result: Sturgeon wins

 Cameron: 18% Miliband: 15% Clegg: 10% Farage: 20% Bennett: 5% Sturgeon: 28% Wood: 4% 1117 GB adults

So, the 'winner' isn't standing in over 90% of the seats...

I wonder what the figures are among Scots alone. Sturgeon on 97%?

[jaichind]

Comres poll

PERFORMED BEST
21% Cam
21% Mili
9% Clegg
21% Farage
5% Bennett
20% Sturgeon
2% Wood

[jaichind]

ICM

Miliband: 25%
Cameron: 24%
Farage: 19%
Sturgeon: 17%
Clegg: 9%
Bennett: 3%
Wood: 2%

[jaichind]

Looks like the polls really show a 4 way tie between Cameron, Miliband, Sturgeon, and Farage.  In that sense this should be seen as a victory for Sturgeon and Farage.

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like the polls really show a 4 way tie between Cameron, Miliband, Sturgeon, and Farage.  In that sense this should be seen as a victory for Sturgeon and Farage.

And an utter defeat for Wood and Bennett.

[Clyde1998]

ComRes:


Net ratings:
Sturgeon +16%
Miliband +7%
Cameron +6%
Clegg +3%
Farage +1%
Wood -14%
Bennett -25%

[afleitch]

ComRes:


Net ratings:
Sturgeon +16%
Miliband +7%
Cameron +6%
Clegg +3%
Farage +1%
Wood -14%
Bennett -25%

Probably the best way to measure all these polls to be honest.

[afleitch]

FWIW, YouGov for the day

CON 37
LAB 35
LD 7
UKIP 12
GRN 5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I watched Fortitude instead. Anyway it sounds like it was a wash. Quelle surprise.

[Clyde1998]

I'm being told that 1,400 people have joined the SNP tonight - bring their membership to around 105,000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NO ONE WINS DEBATE is not a great headline which is probably why le beeb has gone with LEADERS CLASH. lmao

[Clyde1998]

NO ONE WINS DEBATE is not a great headline which is probably why le beeb has gone with LEADERS CLASH. lmao

I don't think the BBC would say "Person X wins debate" even if there was a clear winner - as they wouldn't want to influence people's opinions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'kay.

[Clyde1998]

ComRes Scotland sub-sample

Performed Best:
Sturgeon - 53%
Farage - 13%
Cameron - 12%
Miliband - 11%
Clegg - 6%
Bennett - 4%
Wood - 2%

Performed Worst:
Farage - 28%
Wood - 19%
Bennett - 18%
Miliband - 12%
Cameron - 12%
Clegg - 5%
Sturgeon - 5%
 
Net:
Sturgeon +48%
Clegg +1%
Cameron +0%
Miliband -1%
Bennett -12%
Farage -15%
Wood -17%

More likely to vote for party following debates:
SNP - 54%
Lab - 17%
Con - 17%
Grn - 10%
UKIP - 8%
Lib - 6%

I emphasis though, it's only a sub-sample.

[Lief 🗽]

I guess it's too late for the SNP to find candidates to field in the rest of Britain. Shame.

[Clyde1998]

I guess it's too late for the SNP to find candidates to field in the rest of Britain. Shame.

They have until Wednesday to confirm their candidate list, so if you ask enough...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I guess it's too late for the SNP to find candidates to field in the rest of Britain. Shame.

If only they'd trademarked the name 'British national party'

[politicus]

I guess it's too late for the SNP to find candidates to field in the rest of Britain. Shame.

If only they'd trademarked the name 'British national party'

Well, running as the English National Party in England to gain support for absolving the union would be a good alternative.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_National_Party

[Phony Moderate]

So can we write off Cleggmania 2.0?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol@themedia

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I know what I'll be watching on C-SPAN this weekend!

[Lief 🗽]

So can we write off Cleggmania 2.0?

It's so weird that he's even still their leader. Obviously I'm an American and don't follow British politics as closely as I do my own, but he just seems like a walking, talking disaster of a human being. I guess there was no one else in the party brave/dumb enough to replace him (as they'd only to end up leading the Lib Dems to an historic defeat anyway), but still...

[Gary J]

Quote from: Lief

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I have copied the part of the federal constitution of the Liberal Democrats concerning leadership elections. The United Kingdom party is a federation of the English, Scottish and Welsh parties.

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Nick Clegg is not particularly unpopular within the Liberal Democrats. It is also true that, unless a prospective new leader had advocated breaking up the coalition, they would be in exactly the same political situation Nick Clegg has been in.

No one seriously tried to trigger a contested leadership election during the last Parliament, so Nick Clegg is trying his luck with the electorate in the present general election.

If the general election goes really badly, I expect that there will be a leadership contest in the next few months. Who will be eligible to stand depends upon who is elected to the new House of Commons (as the leader is required to be an MP).

If Nick Clegg retains his seat and the party has say 30 MPs in the next Parliament, there may not be a contested leadership election.

[afleitch]

What the Liberal Democrats are likely to see this year is an unwinding/uncoupling of support that has built up behind them in heaves and pushes since the Alliance days. If anything the Lib Dems will default to the old Liberal base, loosing a huge left wedge and some post-Major Tory sympathisers. That actually suits Nick Clegg and his side of the party in that in many ways they can actually move to the 'centre' and try and forge an identity from there.

This is also the first election in a while that the Liberal Democrats are realistically defending seats rather than trying to advance and being quite open about that. There are a certain seats they know they can hold against the tide and will invest their energies there to try and limit any losses.