UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[afleitch]

Cashcroft's national poll is as bouncy as hell.

It's not.

First off, in a close race opinion polls should be bouncy. Secondly, Ashcroft's polls have generally shown Conservative leads since January (with two exceptions). Polling companies have different trends (and I know you know this!)

ICM has shown Tory leads since January.

YouGov (who are experimenting with calling back the same panel) has shown a consistent Labour lead since their methodology change in early April.

ComRes has shown a Labour lead to March and a Tory lead since then.

Opinium has shown the same.

MORI has shown a consistent Labour lead

Populus has shown the same.

[afleitch]

SNP

[afleitch]

The 1992/1997 share for the Lib Dems that some people were predicting doesn't look overly likely now, does it?

Vote share, no. But actual number of seats held could still outstrip what they won in 1992.

[afleitch]

Certainly, every polling company is now showing a further move towards the SNP since early April. I am still, to put it mildly, shocked at the level of support the polls are showing for the SNP and the fact that Labour are registering sub 30.

[afleitch]

There's a possible void election in Hull East. There's photographic evidence apparently of the postal vote ballot papers cutting off the Labour and Green candidates names.

[afleitch]

The Sun in Scotland backs whoever the Record doesn't. It's not done it's sales much harm.

[afleitch]

Slightly different language than his previous denials to such an extent it can be taken (probably incorrectly) that he'd rather hand the Tories the spoils of the election before a vote has been cast. Not particularly helpful language at this stage in the game.

[afleitch]

Maybe he's playing the long game. Let Cameron cling on until the Queen's Speech, then dare the SNP to back Cameron.

There isn't a 'long game' if he refuses any confidence and supply with the SNP and there's no other way he can form a government. He can allow Cameron to hang on, but the SNP will still vote down a Tory Queen's Speech. If he tries to form a super-minority government hoping it falls, the SNP will stick to him like a limpet and vote through a Labour platform whether he likes it or not. The SNP are not going to do anything but what the Scottish electorate expect them to do and that's back a Labour government .

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040/photo/1

Sex segregated rally in Hodge Hill

[afleitch]

Very grim news for Labour if anything close to accurate, but salt required etc: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

An ocean of salt required. There is no way to 'count' postal votes in that fashion.

[afleitch]

Safety in numbers. If they call this one wrong, at least they are all calling it wrong together

[afleitch]

Survation have released their final poll.

CON 31 (-2)
LAB 34
LIB 8 (-1)
UKIP 17 (+1)
GRN 4 (+1)

[afleitch]

Didn't the last Survation poll have Labour on 29?

Survation have had two polls released in the past day one for the Mirror and one for the Mail. This is the Mail one. The Mirror one had a one point lead.

YouGov have a 1 point Tory lead today.

[afleitch]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/03/ed-miliband-sets-promises-in-stone?CMP=share_btn_fb

'Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.

The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.'

[afleitch]

EdStone
MiliStone
Limestone Vowboy

and other such Labour-ed puns.

[afleitch]

There was a YouGov for Scotland

SNP 49
LAB 26 (+1)
CON 15 (-2)
LIB 7 (+2)
UKIP 2 (-1)
GRN 1

[afleitch]

Britain's 'favourite' 'viewspaper' the Independenthas backed the Coalition. This is rather out of the ordinary.

[afleitch]

The most frustrating thing about this campaign is not the consistently tied polling leading us to have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but rather Torie's habitual misspelling of the word 'Labour'.

It adds color to the thread.