NV-02 special election: 9/13

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Do all the Republican candidates live in Reno or in the Northern part of NV-02. If its in say the NV-02 part of Clark, or in Nye county, then they will likely be in a district with Heck.

Pretty sure they're all from Reno or Carson City.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jon Ralston's twitter says that Ross Miller is declaring the special election a free-for-all:

http://twitter.com/#!/RalstonFlash

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Of course, there are the inevitable lawsuits, so there's no guarantee that it will end up being a free-for-all.

Edit: If the free-for-all survives, we could see a member of Congress elected with something like 25% of the vote.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What does the ballot look like?

Can only 1 person file as a Republican or a Democrat, while everyone else has to file as some sort of minor party?

Any signature requirement? If there's no filing fee and no signature requirement you could have hundreds of people filing to be on the ballot........

It's going to be like the Hawaii special election, where you can have as many members of one party as possible. As for your second question, it would appear not, so this may be one big clusterfuck.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's probably going to be extreme pressure by the state parties to only have one "legitimate" candidate (easier for the Dems, since they only have two in the district). That probably won't stop Angle, though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Krolicki has passed on running. Looks like the Republicans are probably going to unite behind Amodei (except for Angle, of course).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Derby has supposedly dropped out, probably since she realizes Marshall is a lock to get the nomination.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jon Ralston just tweeted that the Republicans picked Amodei on the first ballot.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's... quite an ad.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP will probably poll it in the next couple weeks. They didn't poll NY-26 or CA-36 until a week or two before the election.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm a genius!

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's an interesting breakdown of TV advertising in this race:

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

What exactly did Marshall do wrong? She came off as an appealing moderate, and had a good record as state treasurer. It seemed like the race was very close until the past week. Was Amodei's echo ad based off the one Jerry Brown ran partially responsible for what seems to be a likely loss for Marshall? Or did the DCC screw up with helping Marshall fundraise?

It's a Republican district, Amodei is a strong candidate, and the Republicans have outspent the Democrats here more than 2-1; there wasn't really much of an opening for Marshall. Democrats couldn't win here when the seat was open in 2006, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise that it's not close now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I guess I'll enter a prediction here: 54-42 Amodei.