Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

question: why is MORENA and PT working with PES when the PES are seemingly right-wing?

For AMLO is it about making peace with the establishment.  AMLO concluded that he lost in 2006 mostly due to the fact that PAN was able to paint him as a Chavez and then mobilized the establishment  vote to tactically vote for PAN to defeat AMLO.  This time around AMLO has a ceiling of 35% which he hopes to push to 40% given the anti-PRI mood. Still he is vulnerable to anti-AMLO tactical voting.  So getting a Center-Right PES to ally with him is sending a signal that while his platform is to "soak the fat boys and spread it out thin" he will not be a threat to the establishment.

PES is going with AMLO since it seems AMLO is riding high so PES could then use AMLO to get above 3% and survive as a party and any more then that would give then extra federal funding which is tied to PR vote share.

[njwes]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/google-searches-may-signal-trouble-for-mexico-election-favorite

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Russian bots tbh

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/google-searches-may-signal-trouble-for-mexico-election-favorite

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Russian bots tbh

That narrative does not work.  The current Russian conspiracy theory is that some key aides of AMLO are close to and often appear on RT (aka Putin TV) so if there are any Russian collusion going on it should be in favor of AMLO.  From a logical point of view that would make sense. The Russians want maximum disruption of states that it deems as hostile to its interests so they would want to back anti-Establishment candidates like Sanders and Trump in USA and AMLO in Mexico.   

[ag]

I should add, that PES alliance is low-cost personally for AMLO in most dimensions. PES is tiny and inconsequential - so the cost politically is negligible for him, none of their leaders is going to emerge as a threat to his leadership. And ideologically, their conservatism is mainly social - but few Mexican politicians are more socially conservative than AMLO himself. In his private views he is a very conservative traditionalist small-town Catholic - anti-gay-marriage, likely personally anti-abortion, etc. If anything, PES alliance frees him to go along with his private inclinations. Previously, he would try to avoid being publically drawn on those issues, since he had to avoid repelling left-wing urbanites in his coalition. His mutterings along the lines "it is not, yet, time", "there are more important issues", "we should not rush" were not very convincing as statements of tactics - the cost of moving forward on social issues would have been negligible in many cases where he resisted it, so his refusal was a disappointment for many allies. Now, within PES alliance, he is acquiring plausible deniability: PES is committed to conservative policies on those issues, and they are a part of the coalition. But, in reality, ideologically in those dimensions AMLO is much closer to PES than to his urban MORENA followers from the "intelligentsia" wing of the party. He is, actually, happy to go conservative in these dimensions.

[jaichind]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/03/16/only-1-independent-candidate-appears-to-make-mexico-ballot.html

Looks like only PAN rebel Margarita Zavala got enough qualifying signatures to be on the ballot. El Bronco and PRD rebel Armando Rios Piter did not make it.  It seems more than 3 million signatures couldn’t be verified. 

[jaichind]

Some reasons for Anaya to be hopeful of the future.  Back in March 2006 the polls looked like



Now in March 2018 it looks like:

An El País poll of polls has the two front runners gaining ground since Feb



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       37.8 (+1.0)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           29.2 (+1.8  )
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     23.8 (-0.9)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                5.7  (-1.1)
El Bronco                              2.6  (-0.2)

AMLO looks the same in 2018 as 2006 which is impressive since in 2006 he had the entire PRD but now he has a PRD splinter MORENA and just PT and PES, both micro-parties.

In many ways Anaya is better placed than Calderon in 2006 at least in terms of being the object of  PRI-PAN tactical voting.  On the other hand Zavala is out there and she needs to implode and AMLO to repeat his mistakes in 2006 (mostly by not attending debates) for Anaya to repeat 2006.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for Puebla Governor with PAN-PRD-MC slightly ahead of MORENA-PES-PT with PRI far behind

PAN-PRD-MC        31.6  (+2.2)
MORENA-PES-PT   29.9 (+0.4)
PRI                      16.2 (-0.8  )
PVEM                    2.6
PANAL                   0.9



PRI failing to get an alliance with PVEM and PANAL hurts is cause.

[jaichind]

Massive caller poll which is after El Bronco and PRD rebel Armando Rios Piter was not allowed on the ballot seems to show that Zavala gained the most from those two being taken off the ballot.

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       33.5 (+0.2)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           24.5 (-0.3)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     13.1 (-1.0)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                9.4  (+1.2)



Same poll on AMLO vs Anaya has AMLO ahead 52.36 to 47.64 which would be indicative of how tactical voting might go.

[jaichind]

GEA-ISA poll taken before El Bronco and Piter were taken off the ballot had

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       27
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           23
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     20
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 1
El Bronco                              1
Piter(PRD rebel)                    0

And from there projected the election results to be

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       37
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           32
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     28
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 2
El Bronco                              1
Piter(PRD rebel)                    0

Which would have been a pretty good result for Meade given all the other polls.

[jaichind]

El Financiero-Alejandro Moreno has AMLO surge and Meade coming back.  Poll is from Mar 9-14 ergo that is why  El Bronco and Piter are still in it.  I guess we will have to wait a few more weeks to see what impact  El Bronco and Piter  woulld have on the race.

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       42 (+4)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     24 (+2)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           23  (-4)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 7 (--)
El Bronco                               2 (-1)
Piter(PRD rebel)                     2 (-1)




Then we have Vote for House
PAN-PRD-MC          31  (+2)
MORENA-PES-PT     37  (+4)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL    27  (-2)

And Senate (which is same as Lower House by alliance)
PAN-PRD-MC          31 (+2)
MORENA-PES-PT     37 (+5)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL    27 (-3)


Which seems to imply that Zavala is mostly taking PAN Congressional votes (which makes sense) and that also AMLO is taking some PRI Congressional votes.  It seems to me that if Meade can run a good campaign he can get some of those PRI votes back and avoid being the target of tactical voting.

[jaichind]

It seems recent allegations of  Anaya being involved in a corrupt property sale seems to be having an impact.  If so so far it is helping AMLO than Meade.  But on the other hand the only chance of PRI/Meade at winning is getting Anaya out of the way so they might well as focus on that even at the expense of helping AMLO.

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky poll (I think this is after   El Bronco and Piter are removed from the ballot)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       29.5 (+2.4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           21.2  (-1.1)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     16.4 (-1.6)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 4.8  (+0.1)




As for who will win the bad new s for Anaya is that more people thinks Meade will win than Anaya and the gap is growing which will hurt him in anti-AMLO tactical voting.  AMLO surge in expectations on win.

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       39.2 (+7.
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     17.2 (-6.2)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           12.0  (-8.7)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 4.2  (+0.3)

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll for Morelos governor has MORENA way ahead.  Back in 2012 PRD-PT-MC beat out PRI-PVEM-PANAL with PAN far back at third.

MORENA-PT-PES   42
PRI                      16
PAN-MC               14
PRD-PSD              11
PRD rebel               8
PVEM                     4
PANAL                   3
PH                         2


Of course the MORENA-PT-PES candidate is former soccer star Cuauhtémoc Blanco who was elected mayor of Cuernavaca back in 2015 on a PSD ticket.  I guess he has since defected to MORENA.

[jaichind]

An El País latest poll of polls has AMLO gaining after El Bronco and Piter were not allowed on the ballot.

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       41.2 (+3.4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           28.2 (-1.0)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     21.9 (-1.9)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                5.7  (-0.1)

[jaichind]

AMLO is running as the inheritor of Benito Juárez and Lázaro Cárdenas and trying to claim the mantel of PRI's Leftist traditions and indirectly projecting himself as the true PRI.  Meade being from a Center-Right background and PRD being in an alliance with the PAN makes it easier for AMLO to make this claim.

[jaichind]

New Parametria poll has AMLO way ahead and Zavala polling pretty well.  In seems most of El Bronco and Piter suport went to AMLO and Zavala.

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       38
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)            20
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     16
Zavala (PAN rebel)                13

[jaichind]

Nación321 poll of Millennial has AMLO way ahead which matches other surveys.  It seems it was done before El Bronco was removed from the ballot.

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       51
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)            29
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     13
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 5
El Bronco                               2
 

[jaichind]

El Universal poll

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       42.0  
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           31.1    
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     21.9
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 5.0



El El Universal this time around seems to have normalized out undecided and will not vote (8.6% and 8.8% respectively.)  If you put them back in it should be (with change from Jan El Universal poll)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       34.7  (+2.7)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           25.7   (-0.3)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     18.1  (+2.1)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 4.1  (+0.1)

Which seems to indicate that AMLO and Meade gained from El Bronco and Piter  being taken of the ballot as well as some Aanya's problems in Feb with an alleged land scandal from his past.

[Tintrlvr]

question: why is MORENA and PT working with PES when the PES are seemingly right-wing?

For AMLO is it about making peace with the establishment.  AMLO concluded that he lost in 2006 mostly due to the fact that PAN was able to paint him as a Chavez and then mobilized the establishment  vote to tactically vote for PAN to defeat AMLO.  This time around AMLO has a ceiling of 35% which he hopes to push to 40% given the anti-PRI mood. Still he is vulnerable to anti-AMLO tactical voting.  So getting a Center-Right PES to ally with him is sending a signal that while his platform is to "soak the fat boys and spread it out thin" he will not be a threat to the establishment.

PES is going with AMLO since it seems AMLO is riding high so PES could then use AMLO to get above 3% and survive as a party and any more then that would give then extra federal funding which is tied to PR vote share.

Also, AMLO is quite socially conservative (anti-abortion, generally anti-gay marriage), so PES, which is primarily about social conservatism and not especially right-wing on economics, finds him appealing.

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/10/mexico-to-include-former-cowboy-el-bronco-on-presidential-ballot

Mexico adds fifth name to presidential ballot despite fake signatures

Looks like El Bronco is back on the ballot.  This will hurt AMLO and help Anaya.  El Bronco will most likely take anti-system votes away from AMLO.

[jaichind]

Reforma poll has AMLO pulling way ahead


AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       48 (+6)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           26 (-6)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     18
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 5
El Bronco                              3




AMLO have gender gap advantage for men


AMLO stronger among youth


AMLO stronger amoung higher educated voters


AMLO strong in the South (as expected) but also fairly strong in the Northwest.  It is in the Northeast that Anaya has the edge




AMLO way ahead 1-on-1 vs Anaya as well so tactical voting will not help Anaya

[jaichind]

Massive Call poll, especially AMLO vs Anaya is much more favorable to Anaya

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       36.0
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           27.4
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    13.1
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 8.1
El Bronco                              1.9

[jaichind]

One of the top election issues is the new Mexico City International Airport (NAICM) project which AMLO claims is a fraud to line the pocket of contractors.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/slim-defends-airport-against-amlos-threat-to-abandon-it/

AMLO says he will cancel the project and start from scratch and build a new airport for much lower cost.  Mexico's richest man Carlos Slim who has a stake in the project is also getting into the debate.  AMLO is right that this project is way over budget but it is unlikely that he will do much better by canceling the project and most likely will increase the total cost of the project.

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       31.9 (+2.4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           20.8 (-0.4)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    16.9 (+0.5)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 3.8 (-1.0)
El Bronco                              1.6

[jaichind]

First debate tonight of all 5 candidates.