Primary bellwether states

[Nym90]

These states have voted for every Democratic nominee in the party's primaries since 1992:

Conversely, the anti-bellwether state for the Dems has been Oklahoma, which was the only state that the party's nominee failed to carry in both 2004 and 2008 (and looks as though it will again in 2016).

Going back to 1988 narrows the map down to these states:

Going back to 1984 leaves us with only two states:

And Minnesota didn't vote for Carter in 1976, so Kansas has the streak of having voted for the Democratic nominee in the most consecutive primaries, a streak that will end in 2016 if Clinton is the nominee. I wasn't able to find any Kansas data for 1972 to determine if the streak extends further back.

For the Republicans, these states have backed the winner in each primary since 1992:

Going back to 1988 narrows the map thusly:

To 1980 takes one more state off:

And finally, to 1976.

Nixon won every state in 1972, and from 1968 and prior, primaries weren't the main determinants of the nominee. If someone wants to extend the list further back, though, feel free.

As for the GOP anti-bellwethers, these states failed to vote for the nominee in either 2012 or 2008, but all did in 2000.

Dole lost the Louisiana caucus in 1996, but won the primary, as well as the rest of the states above.

Going back to 1988, these states also didn't vote for the nominee that year:

And extending to 1980, Iowa was the only of the above to once again not vote for the nominee. So Iowa holds the title (in my opinion) as the anti-bellwether for the GOP.

[Nym90]

Michigan is the anti-bellwether state no. 1.
Seen from this angle, it isn't even surprising that Bernie won Michigan. That voting pattern was actually very consistent in fact.

It does have a contrarian history for both parties. 2008 perhaps deserves an asterisk since Obama wasn't on the ballot, but it also voted for Jackson in 1988.

[Nym90]

If Clinton is the nominee, Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota will see their streaks of voting for the Dem nominee come to an end, and the rest of the states that have backed the winner since 1988 all might as well, as Sanders seems likely to do well in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana, Oregon, and Hawaii.

On the GOP side, looking at the states that have backed the nominee every time since at least 1972: if Trump is the nominee, it will extend the streaks of Florida, Kentucky, and Illinois, while New York, New Jersey, and West Virginia all seem like good Trump states, too. Maryland, Oregon, and Wisconsin are more difficult to predict. Ohio's streak seems very likely to end unless Kasich can somehow prevail at a contested convention.

Iowa, meanwhile, will continue to be the anti-bellwether if Cruz isn't the nominee.

[Nym90]

And I decided for kicks to look before 1972 for the GOP primaries. Most states didn't hold primaries in 1968, but Nixon won New Jersey, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Oregon that year (he lost Ohio, and the rest of the states that have backed every GOP nominee since 1972 didn't have primaries in 1968).

Then going back to 1964, we find that Illinois was the only one of the four above to vote for Goldwater, and thus it wins the title of the longest GOP primary bellwether. It also voted for Nixon in 1960 and Eisenhower in 1956; the last time the winner of the Illinois primary didn't win the GOP nomination was when it voted for Robert Taft in 1952.

[Nym90]

http://web.archive.org/web/20091026141033/http://geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1972.html

McGovern did indeed win Kansas

Thanks. So Kansas has voted for the nominee every time from 1972 to 2012, the only state to have such a perfect record for the Dems (Kansas didn't have primaries or caucauses before 1972).

[Nym90]

So, if I'm not mistaken, the only Democratic primary bellwethers (going back to '88) are Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana, Oregon and Hawaii, each of which is likely to vote for Bernie. lol.

If they really do, the remaining bellwether states would be Illinois, Missouri, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

If Clinton is the nominee, that is true. Hawaii is probably the state of the above that she has the best chance of winning.

[Nym90]

And we have another traitor: Wisconsin...  😫

Yes, for both parties if the New Yorkers win the nominations.

[Nym90]

The Deep South being the bellwether shows the recent power of the African-American vote in Democratic primaries.