The future of Ukraine

[GMantis]

Grim. They've done their best relations with their most obvious and longtime trading partner and replaced it with dubious agreements with the EU which are unlikely to bring any concrete gains for decades. The ultra-nationalist policies adopted by their government will continue to alienate large segments of the population, most obviously those living in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions which probably won't be rejoining Ukraine any time soon, while distracting the people from the fact that Ukraine is still controlled by the oligarchs. And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

[GMantis]

Sorry for the delay.

Thank you very much for your response here, GMantis!

However, I have two questions for you:

1. Do you believe that Ukraine should have joined Russia's Eurasian Economic Union instead?
2. Do you think that Ukraine is likely to experience at least one additional revolution within the next couple of decades?
3. Do you think that Russia is likely to eventually annex the Donbass if Ukraine continues to refuse to agree to Russia's proposal(s) to federalize Ukraine?

1. No. I think Ukraine should have tried to keep a neutral policy of balance between the EU and Russia. This was probably the most popular policy in Ukraine as well.

2. Difficult to say. The pro-Russian section of Ukraine is very weakened now and the Ukrainian nationalists are united behind the government due to the war. But if the situation in Donbass is ever normalized and it becomes clear at last that the EU hopes are a mirage, then it wouldn't be impossible.

3. Probably not. It's in Putin's interest if this conflict is resolved. And the fact that Putin was not willing to directly take Donbass seems to imply that there will be no annexation.

[GMantis]

And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...

They have to give at least something to Ukraine to make it seem that the promises of an EU future is not entirely empty.

If Putin was really shrewd, he would exploit this fact by granting visas to any Ukrainian who asks. He can get his state television to claim these are refugees fleeing the fascist dictatorship in Kiev. If he can't bring Russia to Ukraine, he can bring Ukraine to Russia and accomplish the same thing.

Ukrainians don't require visas to travel to Russia. They are in fact still a large amount of Ukrainians working in Russia, including from nationalist western Ukraine.