Trump's lewd comments - is the House in play?

[Tartarus Sauce]

While I would usually say no, I actually think people are being quite subdued in their assessments of the Democrats chances in both chambers. This is looking like it's going to transform into the GOP nightmare scenario. With the Republicans now rapidly fleeing away from Trump and his inevitable loss becoming more apparent by the day, Donnie is almost sure to have a meltdown and begin blaming establishment Republicans.

By the same token that party leaders breaking away from Trump provides convenient signaling to establishment faithful to vote their conscience on the top of the ballot while checking straight ticket down the line, Trump beseeching his supporters to dump incumbent party operatives for betraying him could provide just as potent a force. This was precisely the reason Republican officials have been gritting their teeth and reluctantly endorsing Trump despite all of his controversies and his rather obvious liabilities: they couldn't afford to fragment their electorate by alienating the sizable Trump coalition and not suffer down-ballot consequences for it. Well now that looks to be exactly what's going to happen.

There are dozens of GOP candidates residing in congressional districts which are designed to their advantage that are not nearly as entrenched as the urban Democratic districts, but not as vulnerable as the swing districts either. Consolidating Democratic voters into a few impregnable blocs which are ceded as impossible to compete in for the payoff of a multitude of less entrenched but still advantaged districts has allowed Republicans to hold such large margins in the House. That strategy has worked wonders for them specifically because they've maintained a high degree of voter discipline in supporting Republican nominees for congressional offices.

A house divided, however, cannot stand, and some of these moderately bolstered Republican districts could end up being undermined by internal fissures within the local GOP electorates. Even without factoring in the potential for reduced turnout ---which could very well be a reality not just due to the divisiveness of this election but also due to the paltry GOTV machine--- things could potentially take an ugly turn if the party faithful show up to vote for Republican candidates for congressional offices and doing a write-in at the top of the ticket while the Trump supporters vote for Trump and decide that their local representatives can go suck a big fat one. Not only does this endanger districts Republicans didn't envision being surrenderable to Democrats, but it virtually guarantees a wipeout in all the competitive districts, where embattled Republicans were already imperiled with the prospect of being swept out by the undertow generated by the radioactive walking disaster at the top of the ticket.

TL;DR: internecine conflicts between the Trump coalition and other Republicans could unravel GOP partisan unity for congressional candidates on top of potential down-ballot drag from the top of the ticket and reduced turnout could all combine for a massive down-ballot loss across the board for Republicans.