Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1591308229333905409?s=20&t=N1Zr-ddZi9FXEu3...

[Frodo]

Putin would do everyone a favor if he has Dugin 'accidentally' fall from a window or (like his onetime KGB mentor) has him mysteriously fall ill and dies...  

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin would do everyone a favor if he has Dugin 'accidentally' fall from a window or (like his onetime KGB mentor) has him mysteriously fall ill and dies...  

He's quite possibly Rasputin'd himself against the latter though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The videos coming out are reminiscent of the liberation of Paris. An instantly legendary day in military history.

Kherson outragé, Kherson brisé, Kherson martyrisé... mais Kherson libéré!

[Hindsight was 2020]

What is next After Kherson ?

In terms of next likely liberated areas - Svatove and Kremina.

For Army Group South, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely in a push to Melitopol in order to split the southern land bridge between Crimea/Kherson and the Donbas/Russia.

You think Ukraine can pull off a Melitopol offensive in the winter or will they be waiting until spring?

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/VascoCNN/status/1591370580808417283?s=20&t=MC_Rs0mMUcTM1...

Someone must have started chopping onions when the crowd spontaneously started singing the Ukrainian National Anthem.

[Virginiá]

What is next After Kherson ?

In terms of next likely liberated areas - Svatove and Kremina.

For Army Group South, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely in a push to Melitopol in order to split the southern land bridge between Crimea/Kherson and the Donbas/Russia.

You think Ukraine can pull off a Melitopol offensive in the winter or will they be waiting until spring?

Winter actually isn't that bad if the ground freezes, at least so long as they have the proper gear. It's that brief period in Autumn where it rains a lot and turns the ground to sludge, and then in the spring when the snow melts and again creates extremely muddy conditions.

I think if they throw a lot of weight into it, they might chip away at the front, but admittedly I am a little skeptical they will be able to take a very large swathe of land in the next ~3 months. Russia is likely moving the large concentration of professional soldiers they had in Kherson to the same areas as the ZSU. But we'll see.

[Virginiá]

Although depending on how you assess the state of the Russian military, further large gains may be possible:

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1591499034724012032

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1591532953120686081

[Woody]

More videos from Kherson

https://twitter.com/RealJoeStyx/status/1591750763398959104

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is a "bizgov"?

[ꙮ]

More videos from Kherson

https://twitter.com/RealJoeStyx/status/1591750763398959104

Oh no, won’t someone please think of the poor Russian collaborators 😢

Theyre the real victims

Between this and the congressional results I’m amazed you haven’t overdosed on pure cope yet.

[Person Man]

More videos from Kherson

https://twitter.com/RealJoeStyx/status/1591750763398959104

Oh no, won’t someone please think of the poor Russian collaborators 😢

Theyre the real victims

Between this and the congressional results I’m amazed you haven’t overdosed on pure cope yet.

I mean, they should be questioned for intelligence, put on trial, and either be asked to leave or be committed to prison. Maybe because this could be related to genocide, the death penalty would ideally be an option (it’s not). There should still be due process.

[ꙮ]

More videos from Kherson

https://twitter.com/RealJoeStyx/status/1591750763398959104

Oh no, won’t someone please think of the poor Russian collaborators 😢

Theyre the real victims

Between this and the congressional results I’m amazed you haven’t overdosed on pure cope yet.

I mean, they should be questioned for intelligence, put on trial, and either be asked to leave or be committed to prison. Maybe because this could be related to genocide, the death penalty would ideally be an option (it’s not). There should still be due process.

Of course there should be due process. That is a given, and it’s a shame that undeserving people might get caught up in post-occupation reprisals.

My problem is more with known Russia simp Woodbury only posting things which paint Ukraine in a bad light, and delusional propaganda which paints Russia in a good light. A couple pages ago he compared the retreat from Kherson to Borodino and Moscow during the Napoleonic Wars.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More videos from Kherson

https://twitter.com/RealJoeStyx/status/1591750763398959104

Oh no, won’t someone please think of the poor Russian collaborators 😢

Theyre the real victims

Between this and the congressional results I’m amazed you haven’t overdosed on pure cope yet.

I mean, they should be questioned for intelligence, put on trial, and either be asked to leave or be committed to prison. Maybe because this could be related to genocide, the death penalty would ideally be an option (it’s not). There should still be due process.

Of course there should be due process. That is a given, and it’s a shame that undeserving people might get caught up in post-occupation reprisals.

My problem is more with known Russia simp Woodbury only posting things which paint Ukraine in a bad light, and delusional propaganda which paints Russia in a good light. A couple pages ago he compared the retreat from Kherson to Borodino and Moscow during the Napoleonic Wars.

Whatever anti-Ukraine stuff Woodbury posts is a drop in a sea of (if you average it out) pro-Ukraine sentiment that has been the broad majority of the people who has posted in this thread.

If he wasn't here, we might not even be affirming due process for people in formerly Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine...because the issue wouldn't likely crop up as easily, possibly if at all.

The reason why I asked what "bizwiz" or whatever that term meant was that it was slang I've never heard and I had no idea what it meant. Of course there can be interregation...but people in occupied zones don't always have a real choice in doing what they are found to be doing, and not everyone who takes a paycheck does so with the same intentions.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but not much of the pro-Ukraine stuff is as delusional as "Kherson is Borodino".

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wagner has released and endorsed a video in which they use a hammer to execute one of the prisoners mobilised into Wagner and subsequently captured by Ukraine (apparently convicted as a murderer, originally). They claim to have captured him in Kyiv, but it seems more likely that he was arrested after being sent back to Russia as part of a prisoner exchange.

In a previous video released by Ukrainians, the ex-prisoner had said he wanted to fight for Ukraine. It’s quite possible he said this under duress and wanted to return to Russia, but the publication of that video made a prisoner exchange much more dangerous for him. Either he was foolish, unaware of the publication of the video, or exchanged unwillingly, in spite of Zelensky’s statement that no POW would be exchanged if they didn’t want to be exchanged.

This deserves some clarification and/or investigation from the Ukrainian side and illustrates why the Geneva convention restricts the state w.r.t. publishing footage of POWs. Ukrainian soldiers doing that on social media is not a violation of the convention, but it most likely caused this man’s death. Future Russian POWs will now become less willing to be exchanged, and it’s possible that mobiks become less willing to surrender, for a time.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Woodbury is in pure cope and seethe mode I see lol

[MasterJedi]

Woodbury is in pure cope and seethe mode I see lol

The complete failure of wannabe fascists to take control in the US coupled with fascism falling back in Europe. A bad day for MAGAts.

[Person Man]

Woodbury is in pure cope and seethe mode I see lol

Patriots have been in control throughout the world this week. I don't blame him.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1591857801072377862

Worth noting that MRAPs tend to be significantly less useful in manoeuvre warfare than traditional armoured personnel carriers, as they are large, slow and meant to deal with mines (not artillery/direct fire). They are sometimes sold as police vehicles for especially militarised/paranoid departments and it is possible that export controls would be weaker if vehicles like this one were re-sold without guns attached.

[AndyHogan14]

There’s chatter about the Ukrainians contesting the Kinburn Peninsula on the opposite side of the Dnipro/Bug estuary. The peninsula is already (in theory) under Ukrainian fire control after the liberation of Kherson and it would be near impossible for Russia to defend. However, I cannot imagine the Ukrainians trying to move beyond just trying to ensure the shipping lanes from Mykolaiv. With that said, it should tie down the Russians in the area once the inevitable move towards Melitopol happens.

Again, totally unconfirmed other than a cryptic Tweet from the Ukrainian Armed Forces of them in boats crossing the Dnipro.

[Frodo]

The Antonivskiy bridge (the one closest to Kherson) has been destroyed:

Strategic bridge near Ukraine's Kherson has collapsed - public broadcaster

The Russians probably detonated it after they completed their retreat from the city itself -make it as difficult as possible for Ukrainian forces to cross the river and begin their campaign to retake the rest of Kherson oblast.  

The situation is such that there probably won't be offenses from either side across the river until there are soldiers on the other side via attacking from the flank. The front closed besides artillery and skirmishes, time to focus on Melitopol.

100%. The Ukrainians are already on the east/left bank of the Dnipro just further north in Zaporizhzhia—so just start from there and push towards Melitopol. Trying to cross at Kherson and risk being stuck against the river on the eastern bank would be foolish.

I see no harm psyching the Russians into believing the Ukrainians will continue pressing their advantage from Kherson over the river though, if only to distract them from the real threat to Melitopol. 

[Frodo]

I think in addition to launching an offensive from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol, the Ukrainian army would be wise to make a simultaneous offensive further east, first taking the city of Donetsk, and then attack Mariupol from there, cutting off Russian attempts to reinforce and supply their forces overland, then conduct mopping-up operations on that land bridge ridding it of all remaining Russian forces before pressing on to Kherson oblast and making it ultimately to the gates of Crimea:  



I assume though these will wait for spring.  

[Frodo]

I can't imagine Belarus being too happy about this:

Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Reinforcing Belarus Border, Capital
Despite deploying a massive amount of resources to the east and south, Ukraine has beefed up its forces to the north and is reinforcing Kyiv.

Even if this is a distraction by Putin and Lukashenko, it will ultimately avail them nothing.  Both of them will be lucky to escape this war with their regimes still intact at home.