Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1589981361108299777

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1589981361108299777

I can't wait for Hump or Dennis to climb back into bed with Islamists in 2025. Fool us once, shame on us... fool us twice... well, uh..., we won't be fooled again @:)

[Badger]

Yeah, the Wapo article says it is all about PR, rather than substance and I agree. There will never be a  peace agreement unless and until Putin gets desperate. In the meantime he thinks he can just hold on, until public opinion in the West snaps. The West on the other hand hopes continual progress in rolling Russia back will help to anneal the will to bear the burden to stand up and thwart the existential threat.

I wonder if there is any way to induce China to shut the war down short of handing them Taiwan.

After a peace agreement, Putin will violate the agreement and will invade Ukraine in 5-10 years. Putin wants to wipe out Ukraine and annex the whole country.

The only way to end the war sooner is to send Ukraine heavy weapons like Leopard 2 tanks and fighter jets. The only thing Putin understands is force, not diplomacy.

Any deal that does not entail a commitment by the West to formally ally with Ukraine in the event it is invaded again, would be a disgrace, yes.

Honestly? Make whatever deal necessary to drive Putin's forces back, and then break it with an alliance, whether unilateral, multilateral, whatever pending full NATO membership over turkey and hungary's inevitable b**** Fest

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590092525632913409?s=20&t=RrDHwnnZ...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590092525632913409?s=20&t=RrDHwnnZ...

This is one of those Kherson posts I'd caution against. Stremusov is basically Alex Jones with fewer brain cells and on crack. I think he was appointed as a flex on Ukrainians by their would-be colonial masters, and even that eventually backfired when he publicly told Shoigu to kill himself.

Even as a pro-Russian source acknowledging concessions, he isn't at all reliable.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1590134284375175168?s=20&t=WiWJZAWJKdX...

[Woody]

Russian media reports that Stremousov is dead. Died in a car accident...

..supposedly

[Logical]

What a bad 24 hours it has been for SirWoodbury

[Storr]

Probably locals, but still indicative:https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1590342634622492672?s=20&t=kpe51ocd_4Q...

[rc18]

Sounds like another gesture of goodwill is happening now in Kherson.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kherson!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/guyelster/status/1590362266217906180

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1590134284375175168?s=20&t=WiWJZAWJKdX...

Which is the last significant settlement of Mykolaiv oblast that is still in Russian hands.

[jaichind]

Interesting Russia held off on announcing this until after the USA midterm elections.  I guess they did not want to give Biden a domestic political victory before the elections.  Well the GOP underperformed anyway but I guess perhaps they would have done worse if the Biden administration got such a political win before the elections.

[2952-0-0]

The Russians are now about to lose the capital city of what is supposedly one of its regions, with barely a whimper. What a disaster!

Interesting Russia held off on announcing this until after the USA midterm elections.  I guess they did not want to give Biden a domestic political victory before the elections.  Well the GOP underperformed anyway but I guess perhaps they would have done worse if the Biden administration got such a political win before the elections.

Maybe. Perhaps the Saudis will become more willing to loosen the oil spigots for the same reason.

[jaichind]

This is a PR disaster for Russia.  They have up territories that are legally part of Russia as per their Consitution.   Now Putin is legally obligated to try to retake Kherson.  That very legal fact now locks Russia into a long war.

[2952-0-0]

This is a PR disaster for Russia.  They have up territories that are legally part of Russia as per their Consitution.   Now Putin is legally obligated to try to retake Kherson.  That very legal fact now locks Russia into a long war.

Yes, and Putin is too chicken to whip out the red button.

As for the legal niceties, the law in Russia is whatever Putin declares it, nothing more. For political reasons, Putin can't afford to officially sign a peace treaty recognizing his loss. But, he afford to keep a simmering conflict going indefinitely, similar to the Korean DMZ, and reminiscent of the "perpetual war" in George Orwell's most famous book.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is a PR disaster for Russia.  They have up territories that are legally part of Russia as per their Consitution.   Now Putin is legally obligated to try to retake Kherson.  That very legal fact now locks Russia into a long war.

He can just ignore or change the law if he wants to avoid a long war (and I'm not sure he does want to avoid a long war, given that it procrastinates a negotiated settlement).

That's embarrassing, but it's not the be-all-and-end-all. The downsides here are the enragement of hardliners (who would have been at least somewhat upset even without the legal declaration that "Kherson is Russia") and the encouragement of others to take Russia's laws and government less seriously.

Of course, taking Russia's laws and government less seriously has implications for their deterrent when it comes to Crimea, but that's a lot more defensible and maybe Ukraine would never have been deterred to begin with.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590364844053925888?s=20&t=ezYOG-G1Qb9S9o...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590370457269960704?s=20&t=ezYOG-G1Qb9S9o...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590378447494602753?s=20&t=ezYOG-G1Qb9S9o...

[Storr]

Predictable cope on Russian state television:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1590382773017415680?s=20&t=nCnQH549...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1590414828564545537?s=20&t=EOptF7LVVz...

[Oryxslayer]

Kherson!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/guyelster/status/1590362266217906180

Wait this is actually happening? Midterms obviously sucking all interest. F yeah, any day when combatants decide to not put urban civilians through a 21st century siege is a good day.

[Storr]

Kherson!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/guyelster/status/1590362266217906180

Wait this is actually happening? Midterms obviously sucking all interest. F yeah, any day when combatants decide to not put urban civilians through a 21st century siege is a good day.

Probably, if I were to guess. The Ukrainians are skeptical, as they should be. You don't want to fall for enemy propaganda and end up in a trap.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1590421531829866498?s=20&t=xzet9Pt-...

[CanadianDemocrat]

The Russians are now about to lose the capital city of what is supposedly one of its regions, with barely a whimper. What a disaster!

Interesting Russia held off on announcing this until after the USA midterm elections.  I guess they did not want to give Biden a domestic political victory before the elections.  Well the GOP underperformed anyway but I guess perhaps they would have done worse if the Biden administration got such a political win before the elections.

Maybe. Perhaps the Saudis will become more willing to loosen the oil spigots for the same reason.

Kherson is as Russian as Moscow or Saint Petersburg, according to Putin. What a humiliating strategic and political loss this is for Russia.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1590497735090012162?s=20&t=ZNaFu9ajpH5...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine’s Russian causalities report might actually be a conservative estimate
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1590562871544778752