CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Holmes]

Just what California needs. A populist Republican.

Safe D.

[Holmes]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

California isn't gonna vote for a Republican... period. California has changed considerably since 2010, and don't forget that Republicans also suffered serious losses in California in 2010. You can make the point that a Republican can win with 30% of the vote if the recall passes, but using "lean/likely/safe" ratings in this case is flawed.

[Holmes]

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

I thought you would endorse Newsom. He’s been the best governor when it comes to COVID!

[Holmes]

This kind of crap is the GOP's future. The scary part here is that she could be elected in another state that's more conservative than deep blue CA.

Sucks to be that state I guess.

[Holmes]

Gonna be fun when the networks insta-call this for Newsom and the right freaks out.

Gavin Newsom is Gray Davis even if Cox wins he has to deal with a Supermajority D State Legislature, so it won't make a dines worth of difference, Newsom has to get 50% or he is recalled

It won't be a blowout 20 pt Newsom lead

That's why I might vote to recall Newsom, if he loses Steyer would run against Cox in 2022

Orange suburbs aren't D always

You’d vote for a Republican governor now to maybe get a different Democrat later? One who probably wouldn’t even run?

[Holmes]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

Why is Wendy Williams friends with known grifter and scammer Vicki Gunvalson (she ran a cancer scam with one of her old boyfriends that became a huge deal on and off the show)? Gunvalson's "fiance" (many think is was just for show when she was on the Real Housewives of Orange Country t have a storyline) fraudulently tried to run for city council in Anaheim by claiming he lived in the city when in fact he didn't. He also tried to claim he was Hispanic, which also isn't true.

CA recently reported a 75 billion dollar budget surplus. Yeah, Wendy, the CA economy is a "joke". Maybe she doesn't like CA. Guess you can't expect too much from trash like her.
 

So Lodge is a fraud, I guess? Lodge is a former police officer and US military member.....

https://www.instagram.com/stevelodge_oc/

Vicki is a scammer too? Oh boy....She's not the only housewife on that franchise to be involved in shady business deals....

We don’t care about cops and military in California. This isn’t Long Island or whatever tf.

[Holmes]

I voted for Elder

Jester, you have done it again. Constantly raising the bar for the circus.

[Holmes]

NEWSOM  is gonna win anyways, the state is done flirting with Larry Elder

You voted for him.

[Holmes]

NEWSOM  is gonna win anyways, the state is done flirting with Larry Elder

You voted for him.

He also voted "No" on the recall.

Which doesn’t invalidate his vote on the second question.

[Holmes]

So whoever I vote for in the second question will be the first person I ever vote for in the US, and I don’t think I want that person to be Paffrath or any of the other losers on the ballot, so I just might not vote for a replacement.

[Holmes]

So whoever I vote for in the second question will be the first person I ever vote for in the US, and I don’t think I want that person to be Paffrath or any of the other losers on the ballot, so I just might not vote for a replacement.

If you're voting for "No" on the first question, then Newsom will technically be the first person whom you ever vote for in the U.S. (& congrats on your first time voting here, btw!). In this instance, consider your vote on the second question as less of a vote for somebody - since you voted for Newsom - & more of an "in case of emergency"-type insurance policy.

Kind of, I mean I’m not voting to elect Newsom but rather keep him on the first question, and also maybe I’m so dissatisfied with the recall that I don’t even want to bother giving anyone in the clown car my vote.

[Holmes]

Well, I dropped off my ballot.

Baby got ballot or whatever.

[Holmes]

This is the California recall thread, not your stupid “I hate the term Latinx” thread.

[Holmes]

Well, so far Republicans are a little bit more motivated to get rid of Newsom than they were to keep Trump.

[Holmes]

How many ads for candidates in the recall are people seeing? Granted, I imagine that Republican candidates might not find it cost-efficient to spend in the Bay Area media market, but literally every television ad I've seen has been against the recall.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a for the recall ad, except for some online ads for Elder. But all ads on YouTube or the radio have been against. I have seen some random recall Newsom signs on freeway overpasses though.

[Holmes]

Potentially stupid question that may have been answered already elsewhere: Will the replacement votes be published if Newsom defeats the recall and is kept in office?

Yes.

[Holmes]

DeJoy is sabotaging the mail-in voting and rigging the recall in favor of the GOP. That's why I think Newsom loses.

Mods please mute.

[Holmes]

As someone who isn't really following this, how in the world can the 1 Democrat in the race not get the ~30% of the vote needed to win if Newsom is recalled? A single Democrat should be able to do that in almost every state, much less California...

Are the parties printed on the ballot?

Yes the parties are printed and there are multiple Democrats running actually. It’s just none are serious and the Democratic Party is not endorsing anyone and even outright telling people not to vote for a replacement. Which I think is fair because the “vote no to replace Newsom but also vote for x to replace Newsom” would be pretty schizophrenic messaging.

[Holmes]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

[Holmes]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

Well, Dems can’t just nominate someone else with the top two primary system, unless you’re advocating for a D vs D general.

Not sure 2022 will be redder than 2021 in California though.

[Holmes]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

I think California 2022 will be bluer than 2021.

How come? Because of Afghanistan or something else?

Why do you think it’ll be redder in 2022? California bucked both previous red waves in 2010 and 2014.

[Holmes]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Ask MA voters. There is clearly a reason one of the bluest states in the nation loves their Republican governors

Congrats to Massachusetts but that won’t be us.

[Holmes]

I’m so tired. When Newsom wins the recall, I hope he takes it as a mandate to ban Republicans.

[Holmes]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

Yeah, I think whatever chance the recall had of succeeding went out the window when he emerged as the leading alternative.

Not that they ever had a chance of winning, but Republicans really did their best to lose this one.

[Holmes]

Also what are the odds of the race being called for Newsom at poll closing? What would it take for that to happen?

An exit poll.