Like-a-Fishhook Election Tracking
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Author Topic: Like-a-Fishhook Election Tracking  (Read 15821 times)
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #25 on: August 20, 2008, 08:15:02 PM »

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.
Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Unlikely. The coattails aren't strong enough.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #26 on: August 20, 2008, 08:25:38 PM »

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.
Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Unlikely. The coattails aren't strong enough.

     The way PR-STV is set up, you're not going to have anyone be pulled up by coattails unless the margin for them to reach the quota is razor-thin or the person they get coattails from wins first preferences by a vast margin.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #27 on: August 20, 2008, 08:26:51 PM »

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.
Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Unlikely. The coattails aren't strong enough.

     The way PR-STV is set up, you're not going to have anyone be pulled up by coattails unless the margin for them to reach the quota is razor-thin or the person they get coattails from wins first preferences by a vast margin.

True, but they do nevertheless exist.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2008, 09:04:35 PM »

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.
Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Unlikely. The coattails aren't strong enough.

     The way PR-STV is set up, you're not going to have anyone be pulled up by coattails unless the margin for them to reach the quota is razor-thin or the person they get coattails from wins first preferences by a vast margin.

True, but they do nevertheless exist.

     I never said they didn't. I said that they are not really significant, barring extraordinary circumstances.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2008, 03:51:14 AM »

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.
Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Hugely unlikely, unless I'm greatly underestimating the total votes yourself and Xahar will receive; or underestimating the number of #1 preferences HappyWarrior will end up with.

You can't transfer any more than your surplus. So far in this election, nobody has had a surplus greater than 1 vote.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #30 on: August 21, 2008, 04:16:25 AM »

Updated count to Verily...

[This count contains just about anything that a PR-STV election count can throw at you. It should be a useful guide for anyone seeking to get to grips with the system. As is usual, any questions are welcome.]

Total Valid Votes: 21
Quota: 4

Count 1
DWTL5
Xahar3(5 #2 preferences)
Colin3(3 #2 preferences, 3 #3 preferences)
Sensei3(3 #2 preferences, 0 #3 preferences)
AndrewCT2(4 #2 preferences)
Al2(1 #2 preferences)
CultureKing2(0 #2 preferences)
Jas1
benconstine0(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior0(5 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator0(1 #8 preference)

Notes
*Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

*On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

*DWTL surpasses the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can 'materially affect the progress of the count' (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last ranked candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 2 (Distribution of DWTL's surplus)
DWTLElected(-1)
Xahar3.6(+0.6)
Colin3
Sensei3
AndrewCT2
Al2
CultureKing2
Jas1
benconstine0.2(+0.2)
HappyWarrior0
Evilmexicandictator0
Non-Transferable0.2(+0.2)

Notes
Given his surplus of 1 (with the quota at 4), the 5 votes for DWTL are transfered at a value of 1/5 each.
PiT, Smid and DWTL all preferenced Xahar as #2, so he gains 0.6
Inks preferenced benconstine #2, so he gains 0.2
SPC did not preference any other candidate, so 0.2 is non-transferable.

Following the redistribution, no new candidates were elected and no surpluses are available to distrbibute. Therefore we must start eliminating candidates. EMD and HappyWarrior are eliminated on 0 votes, changing nothing. Therefore next to be eliminated is benconstine.


Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)
DWTLElected
Xahar3.6
Colin3.2(+0.2)
Sensei3
AndrewCT2
Al2
CultureKing2
Jas1
benconstine0(-0.2)

Notes
ben's 0.2 comes from the vote of Inks, which now flows to his #3 preference, Colin.
With nobody elected, Jas is now eliminated.


Count 4 (Distribution of Jas's vote)
DWTLElected
Colin4.2(+1)
Xahar3.6
Sensei3
AndrewCT2
Al2
CultureKing2
Jas0(-1)

Notes
Gustaf's vote for Jas flows to his #2 preference (Colin) who is deemed elected with a surplus of 0.2
As the surplus is enough to save the bottom ranked candidate from elimination, it will be distributed.


Count 5 (Suppy fun happy distribution of Colin's surplus)
DWTLElected
ColinElected(-0.2)
Xahar3.61(+0.01)
Sensei3
AndrewCT2.095(+0.095)
Al2.095(+0.095)
CultureKing2

Notes
Fractional surpluses are probably the most difficult aspect of PR-STV counting.
As before, surpluses are transfered at a reduced value (Surplus/Candidate's Total Vote).
Therefore each of Colin's 4 full votes is transfered at a value of 1/21 of a vote.
The 0.2 of a vote (that of Inks) is transfered at 1/105 of a vote.

Taking each vote individually:
bullmoose: Flows to #2 preference AndrewCT
Colin: Skips #2 preference, Jas (already eliminated); Flows to #3 preference, Al
Verily: Flows to #2 preference AndrewCT
Gustaf: Flows to #3 preference, Al
Inks: Skips #4 preference, Jas (eliminated); flows to #5 preference, Xahar

Therefore, AndrewCT and Al both gain 2/21 of a vote each, and Xahar gains 1/105 of a vote. As allowed in the Act, I've used decimals in the count above and rounded off for presentation.

Nobody is elected, so CultureKing is eliminated.


Count 7 (Distribution of CultureKing's votes)
DWTLElected
ColinElected
Sensei5(+2)
Xahar3.61
AndrewCT2.095
Al2.095
CultureKing0(-2)

Notes
CultureKing's votes (those cast by Alcon and CultureKing) both transfer to their #2 preference, Sensei.
Sensei therefore passes the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can affect the count (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last placed candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 8 (Distribution of Sensei's surplus)
DWTLElected
ColinElected
SenseiElected(-1)
Xahar3.61
AndrewCT2.695(+0.6)
Al2.495(+0.4)

Notes
Sensei's surplus of 1 (with the quota set at 4) means that each of the 5 votes will be transfered at a value of 1/5, i.e. 0.2 each.

Sensei's surplus can only be distributed to either Xahar, Colin, AndrewCT or Al - whichever of them is ranked highest on each of the ballots.

Bacon King's vote skips Colin and Jas, flowing to AndrewCT
Alcon's vote skips Colin and Jas, flowing to Al
Sensei's vote flows to AndrewCT
CultureKing's vote flows to Al
GM3's vote flows to AndrewCT

Therefore, AndrewCT gains 0.6, and Al gains 0.4

Nobody else is elected and no surplus is available to distribute. With only 4 candidates for the 3 remaining seats, the lowest placed candidate (Al) is eliminated and the remaining 3 candidates deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Colin
#3 Sensei
#4 Xahar
#5 AndrewCT
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #31 on: August 21, 2008, 05:00:15 AM »

Jas, thanks for covering this Election, much appreciated, when I still do not know how the PR system of electing Senators works. Not to mention, I like your analysis on the candidates and which sort of Atlasian voter is voting for them, I didn't expect that. I do hope if you decide to cover the next batch of elections, that you will do just that. Keep up the good work Jas Smiley.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #32 on: August 21, 2008, 06:05:42 AM »

Jas, thanks for covering this Election, much appreciated, when I still do not know how the PR system of electing Senators works.

No problem. The best way to understand PR-STV is by example. Hopefully these electoral snapshots should prove useful in that regard for all those interested. At the first PR-STV election, there was some confusion as to the counting method. Lewis was spot-on each time then, so I've decided to jump onto his bandwagon here and hopefully keep everyone prioperly informed of the standings.

Not to mention, I like your analysis on the candidates and which sort of Atlasian voter is voting for them, I didn't expect that.

It's a fascinating election. Now about 21 votes in, we're between a third and half way to the final vote totals, with still 7 (or 8, if you count myself) candidates in with a reasonable shot of getting elected. Having 10 candidates to preference gives us a lot of information about voter preferences, that we don't get very often in Atlasia where it's usually a 2 or 3 man race. Some of the choices are very interesting, just thought I'd comment a bit about it.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #33 on: August 21, 2008, 01:51:39 PM »

I need to focus on getting more non right-wing preferences.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #34 on: August 21, 2008, 02:05:39 PM »

I need to focus on getting more non right-wing preferences.

     What's wrong with the right-wing? Sad
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #35 on: August 21, 2008, 02:08:35 PM »

I need to focus on getting more non right-wing preferences.

     What's wrong with the right-wing? Sad

You're not big enough.
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bgwah
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« Reply #36 on: August 21, 2008, 04:16:43 PM »

Oh Xahar, why didn't you ever challenge Ebowed's bill... Tongue
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #37 on: August 21, 2008, 04:16:48 PM »

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2008, 04:20:55 PM »


     You have plenty of SDP supporters in addition to the RPP second preferences.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2008, 04:21:43 PM »

Oh Xahar, why didn't you ever challenge Ebowed's bill... Tongue

I never got around to it, and I'm not even sure it'd be illegal.


     You have plenty of SDP supporters in addition to the RPP second preferences.

I hope so.
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Sensei
senseiofj324
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« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2008, 04:55:14 PM »

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"
This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2008, 04:56:15 PM »

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"
This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.
And the Southeast is accusing of having stupid laws Tongue

Although this one I must say is quite humorous. 
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2008, 04:59:10 PM »

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"
This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.
And the Southeast is accusing of having stupid laws Tongue

Although this one I must say is quite humorous. 

     What's the law? Anyone who dares to challenge Governor bgwah shall be listed as "Chode" on the ballot?
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Sensei
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« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2008, 05:02:08 PM »

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"
This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.
And the Southeast is accusing of having stupid laws Tongue

Although this one I must say is quite humorous. 

     What's the law? Anyone who dares to challenge Governor bgwah shall be listed as "Chode" on the ballot?
no, just Xahar, due to his talent for getting on the JCP's nerves.
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« Reply #44 on: August 21, 2008, 05:23:26 PM »

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"
This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.
And the Southeast is accusing of having stupid laws Tongue

Although this one I must say is quite humorous. 

     What's the law? Anyone who dares to challenge Governor bgwah shall be listed as "Chode" on the ballot?
no, just Xahar, due to his talent for getting on the JCP's nerves.

     Nice. Smiley


     I noticed that DWTL continues to be extremely divisive. Smiley
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #45 on: August 21, 2008, 05:24:07 PM »

     I noticed that DWTL continues to be extremely divisive. Smiley
Just the way I like it, wouldn't be doing my job if the results suggested anything different Smiley
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bgwah
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« Reply #46 on: August 21, 2008, 05:44:08 PM »

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"
This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.
And the Southeast is accusing of having stupid laws Tongue

Although this one I must say is quite humorous. 

     What's the law? Anyone who dares to challenge Governor bgwah shall be listed as "Chode" on the ballot?

https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/Accuracy_in_Balloting_Act

Ebowed and Friz voted for it, and Xahar voted against. lol
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #47 on: August 21, 2008, 05:46:13 PM »

What do "chode" mean?
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #48 on: August 21, 2008, 05:50:19 PM »

Thankfully I am glad someone doesn't know this, I always thought it was a word made up in my local area and it was sort of a code word

I suggest using urban dictionary, but let's just say it has to do with anatomy
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bgwah
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« Reply #49 on: August 21, 2008, 09:04:10 PM »

I felt kind of bad writing the ballot, but the law is the law...
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