BC Election on October 24th

[Oryxslayer]

All this talk about the other Minority govts in Atlantic Canada following Higgs lead, when it was actually BC we should have been paying attention to. I have no doubts that if polling follows the trend seen in NB, Horgan will get his majority, even though BC has a polarized seat allocation similar to NB.

One thing to remember though is that about 2/3's of the NDP's current Polling lead can be attributed to the nonexistent BC Conservatives pulling about 10-12% out of the Libs column. Last time they ran ten candidates and got less than 1% despite enticing poll numbers before the election was called. They currently have no candidates listed. It will be interesting to see if these voters come home like they always have in the past when it is clearly a two-horse race (and deny the NDP a large majority), or whether they will find a home to cast protest votes against Wilkinson.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe people are mistaking my post. The BC Con vote in the polls is unstable, and it may just end up returning to the Libs. Even if it does though, the NDP will/should still be leading, just they would be on track for a small majority similar to Higgs's last week rather than a demolishing victory. Only about 2/3s of the party gap is because of the Cons. Something else would need to happen to change the trajectory of the election for the Libs to pull even.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1312417972544311299?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Since you brought up a BC Lib internal, now is probably a good time to talk about how BC won't count all their votes until after polls close in the US. The mail in ballots should be anywhere from 25%-35% of the final total, and they can't be opened tonight because BC law is worse than NY. The mail ballots could favor the NDP, meaning that the results tonight may favor the Libs by more than the end result.

[Oryxslayer]

I did hear from a number of sources BC Liberals internals are much more optimistic and expect them to win 34-40 seats, 37 or 38 most likely.  I think they are making same mistake Romney made in assuming a lower turnout than it will be, but I guess we will find out soon or at least get an idea.  My guess is still BC Liberals get in 20s although wouldn't be surprised due to NDP strength in mail in ballots BC Liberals finish tonight in low 30s and fall into 20s after mail in ballots counted.

Might it be a case of 'priming the pump' where they expect to have a decent result tonight before the mail votes are counted. If the pump is primed, then story heading into the week will be different from the expected one. this could still allow for a moral victory, and maybe challenge the NDPs legitimacy/political capital.

[Oryxslayer]

BC Con leading in Peace river north!...1/73 polls.

[Oryxslayer]

First seat called, Mid-Island Pac rim for the NDP. 50-point NDP lead so, unexpected.

[Oryxslayer]

17 NDP seats projected, 4 Lib.

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone tell me why the Greens are doing as well as they are?

Good Debate performance, NDP voters seeing the polls and casting a Green vote, and Initial polls being unrepresentative of full seats. Of course the Greens are doing decent in their targets seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Speaking of Greens, Saanich North and the Islands gets called for them, the only truly safe Green seat in the country.

[Oryxslayer]

So here are my thoughts:

This is essentially the NDP's moment to change it's perception. As was noted upthread, this election saw the battle lines more or less drawn between Federal Liberals + NDP vs Federal conservatives when it came to the voters. Traditionally, Federal Liberal-leaning voters would be more divided but side with the BC Libs. The last time the NDP got a majority the political parties remade themselves to prevent another NDP majority. Times and values though have changed. The NDP is in a position where they can a favorable reputation among urban and suburban voters to change who is perceived as the natural party of power in BC. On the other hand, the NDP base voters may demand the party spend its political capital on the types of policies that would exclude voters outside of the base. In this regard, it might have been better for the NDP to get a slimmer majority, so that the govt feels more cautious because they lack a cushion.

Also, this is what a 10% lead in the margins looks like, and we haven't even seen the NDP-favoring mail ballots. Some of the seats that flipped around Vancouver wouldn't have been thought of as targets unless the swing to the NDP was concentrated - which it was. I hope everyone is paying attention, since the NDP had a lead in polls only slightly larger than Bidens...

[Oryxslayer]

I think there’s approximately 6k mail-in ballots per constituency. The NDP’s lead among those voters  is almost 30 points, compared to their 10 point victory with in-person ballots. So, I’d wager that the NDP approximately nets 1000 votes over the Liberals in each constituency. Of course, this will differ by constituency, based on how many mail-in ballots there actually are for each constituency.

For example, there are a lot of mail ballots in the Vancouver seats, but CBC projected the greens won Sea-to-Sky because their margin is larger than the mail ballots left in the district.

[Oryxslayer]

I think there’s approximately 6k mail-in ballots per constituency. The NDP’s lead among those voters  is almost 30 points, compared to their 10 point victory with in-person ballots. So, I’d wager that the NDP approximately nets 1000 votes over the Liberals in each constituency. Of course, this will differ by constituency, based on how many mail-in ballots there actually are for each constituency.

For example, there are a lot of mail ballots in the Vancouver seats, but CBC projected the greens won Sea-to-Sky because their margin is larger than the mail ballots left in the district.

Not sure how that could be - the Green margin is 600 votes and there were over 7,000 vote by mail requests in West Van-Sea to Sky - and we know that about 2/3 of mail in requests were returned so there should be about 5,000 more votes to count in that seat.

Then CBC commetators are  full of BS. Simple.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cbcnewsbc/status/1320834716984053761?s=20

Elections have consequences, etc, etc.

[Oryxslayer]

There's also power to waiting if one expects Ottawa to have a shakeup in the near future. There are rumors of Trudeau wanting to replicate Horgan and Higgs's success next year, but of course there is the potential of that 'bill coming due' and govt changing hands if voters go to the polls. Either adjustments in govt would change how the parties approach the voters.