5 best seats for Democrats to win this year for a more durable majority in 2022?

[S019]

This thread was originally for House seats, but NV-SEN, AZ-SEN (if it flips), NH-SEN, GA-SEN (if it flips) are all top-tier targets for Republicans in 2022.

I almost wonder why Dems should care at all about the House & Senate, knowing they're 99.9% gurranteed to lose majority status in 2-4 years if they have any semblance of a good election.

Wouldn't it be more prudent to spend more time & money on state-level chambers?

The Senate is actually important due to it's influence on the courts and oversight, and as we saw in 2010 and 2018, it can actually be held by the party in power in tough conditions. Democrats can definitely hold the Senate in 2022 if they have say 51 seats or more going into 2022. I like their odds if it's 53 or more though since NH will be a likely loss if Sununu runs, and NV, AZ, and GA will be tough fights. Colorado is the next tier, and I have a very hard time seeing that one flip as long as Bennet gives an effort.

On the other hand Bennet only ran a percent ahead of Hillary in 2016, the moderate D trend from 2012 >2016 means that I guess he might survive a 2014 like year but not sure.

I would start it out as Likely D out of caution. There is no Cory Gardner circa 2014 candidate waiting in the wings for the Colorado Republicans, plus Colorado appears to have gotten more inflexibly blue at the federal level.

As for Monstro's point about the House, I agree as I don't give a $hit about it either aside from the fact that it's an obvious grooming ground for future Senate and gubernatorial races.

I'd argue that Mike Coffman, mayor of Aurora, is such a candidate. He held a bluing seat in the Denver suburbs until 2018, and still managed to get elected mayor of Aurora as a Republican, despite probably losing it in his 2018 re-election bid. The only question is if his image is too moderate for a GOP primary, and given we just saw Colorado toss out a relatively inoffensive Republican, I'm not sure he'd be able to win it. But contrary to what a lot in this thread are arguing, Mike Coffman definitely has better odds than someone like Phil Scott or Larry Hogan running for Senate. But, again, Coffman might not survive a primary, while Phil Scott or Larry Hogan would absolutely make it to the general.

[Roll Roons]

This thread was originally for House seats, but NV-SEN, AZ-SEN (if it flips), NH-SEN, GA-SEN (if it flips) are all top-tier targets for Republicans in 2022.

I almost wonder why Dems should care at all about the House & Senate, knowing they're 99.9% gurranteed to lose majority status in 2-4 years if they have any semblance of a good election.

Wouldn't it be more prudent to spend more time & money on state-level chambers?

The Senate is actually important due to it's influence on the courts and oversight, and as we saw in 2010 and 2018, it can actually be held by the party in power in tough conditions. Democrats can definitely hold the Senate in 2022 if they have say 51 seats or more going into 2022. I like their odds if it's 53 or more though since NH will be a likely loss if Sununu runs, and NV, AZ, and GA will be tough fights. Colorado is the next tier, and I have a very hard time seeing that one flip as long as Bennet gives an effort.

On the other hand Bennet only ran a percent ahead of Hillary in 2016, the moderate D trend from 2012 >2016 means that I guess he might survive a 2014 like year but not sure.

I would start it out as Likely D out of caution. There is no Cory Gardner circa 2014 candidate waiting in the wings for the Colorado Republicans, plus Colorado appears to have gotten more inflexibly blue at the federal level.

As for Monstro's point about the House, I agree as I don't give a $hit about it either aside from the fact that it's an obvious grooming ground for future Senate and gubernatorial races.

I'd argue that Mike Coffman, mayor of Aurora, is such a candidate. He held a bluing seat in the Denver suburbs until 2018, and still managed to get elected mayor of Aurora as a Republican, despite probably losing it in his 2018 re-election bid. The only question is if his image is too moderate for a GOP primary, and given we just saw Colorado toss out a relatively inoffensive Republican, I'm not sure he'd be able to win it. But contrary to what a lot in this thread are arguing, Mike Coffman definitely has better odds than someone like Phil Scott or Larry Hogan running for Senate. But, again, Coffman might not survive a primary, while Phil Scott or Larry Hogan would absolutely make it to the general.

That would be something. Honestly, Coffman is pretty much Colorado's equivalent of Mike DeWine or Jerry Brown - been in politics forever and held a ton of different positions. Winning a Senate seat or the governorship in 2026 would be a good cap to his career.

[Pericles]

Coffman only got 35.7% of the vote and won by 0.3%-maybe he just got lucky from a vote split (in a non partisan race too)? He didn't seem like a particularly strong incumbent in his 2018 race, given while Trump lost his district by 9 points Coffman lost it by 12 (admittedly there was a strong trend, but plenty of similar districts at least had Republicans lose by less than Trump).