OSC House Model
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Author Topic: OSC House Model  (Read 362 times)
voice_of_resistance
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« on: July 19, 2020, 06:29:46 PM »
Check out this new House model from OSC Elections, a bipartisan group of Yale students who have strong stats backgrounds.

https://oscelections.shinyapps.io/OSCElections/

Currently, projected for D+10 GCB with D+7 seat gain. TX-32 is currently the tipping point although I'm sure it could change.
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Astatine
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2020, 08:04:03 PM »
Appears to be a very good model, ratings seem very sensible.

Just some are kinda surprising, I really doubt CA-25 should be treated as Likely Republican?
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2020, 08:14:58 PM »
Must be using Garcia's overperformance relative to demographics and trends to inflate his vote share. Overall, I think this is a good model though.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2020, 08:16:57 PM »
Decent model. As other have pointed out I disagree with CA-25, and it seems a but bullish to Ds overall, but with the way things are heading it certainly is possible.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2020, 08:53:34 PM »
A bit skeptical of IN-5 being Dem favored,  maybe a tossup district sure, but 56% chance to flip seems really generous.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2020, 09:11:53 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2020, 09:57:08 PM by Oryxslayer »
Quote from: Nyvin on July 19, 2020, 08:53:34 PM
A bit skeptical of IN-5 being Dem favored,  maybe a tossup district sure, but 56% chance to flip seems really generous.



In general the percentages see to be oriented in a very steep bell curve. Moving 1% from one candidate to another shifts the percentages drastically.

Also, yeah, CA25* is the statistical error, since it looks like they are using the previous election as a baseline, and the previous election is the weird special one.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2020, 09:19:36 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 19, 2020, 09:11:53 PM
Quote from: Nyvin on July 19, 2020, 08:53:34 PM
A bit skeptical of IN-5 being Dem favored,  maybe a tossup district sure, but 56% chance to flip seems really generous.



In general the percentages see to be oriented in a very steep bell curve. Moving 1% from one candidate to another shifts the percentages drastically.

Also, yeah, TX25 is the statistical error, since it looks like they are using the previous election as a baseline, and the previous election is the weird special one.

How is TX25 an error? Most ratings places seem to put it at Likely R.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2020, 09:57:21 PM »
Quote from: voice_of_resistance on July 19, 2020, 09:19:36 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 19, 2020, 09:11:53 PM
Quote from: Nyvin on July 19, 2020, 08:53:34 PM
A bit skeptical of IN-5 being Dem favored,  maybe a tossup district sure, but 56% chance to flip seems really generous.



In general the percentages see to be oriented in a very steep bell curve. Moving 1% from one candidate to another shifts the percentages drastically.

Also, yeah, TX25 is the statistical error, since it looks like they are using the previous election as a baseline, and the previous election is the weird special one.

How is TX25 an error? Most ratings places seem to put it at Likely R.

CA25*. My bad.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2020, 10:00:35 PM »
I like it and its ratings. A bit skeptical of SC-02 tbh but I'd love to see them kick out Mr. "YOU LIE" with someone who clerked on the Dylann Roof case.

Also, map of the "Titanium seats", where there's either no challenger or it's rated as 100% chance to win the seat.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2oci

Dems: 159
Reps: 76

That's pretty substantial.
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