The Hill: State by State: Pennsylvannia, Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Maryland

[TeePee4Prez]

according to DCPolitical Report, these are Sestak's declared opponents: GOP activist Andrew Reilly (R), Michael Puppio (R)

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.  PA-10 was a miracle and I'm thinking we'll lose that seat.  I think DKos is too optimistic.  They're basically saying PA could be all Dem except PA 5, 9, 16, and 19.  Wishful thinking, but I know that could never happen.  Here's my order as of now:

PA 10 D->R
PA 6 R->D

I think the above will actually happen

PA 18 R->D
PA 4 D->R corrected

Big Gap.

PA 15 R->D

Above COULD happen.  Gap widens after this

PA 3 R->D
PA 8 D->R
PA 7 D->R

Below would need either a 1994 scenario and/or a marquee candidate or a scandal

PA 17 D->R
PA 13 D->R

[TeePee4Prez]

according to DCPolitical Report, these are Sestak's declared opponents: GOP activist Andrew Reilly (R), Michael Puppio (R)

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.  PA-10 was a miracle and I'm thinking we'll lose that seat.  I think DKos is too optimistic.  They're basically saying PA could be all Dem except PA 5, 9, 16, and 19.  Wishful thinking, but I know that could never happen.  Here's my order as of now:

PA 10 D->R
PA 6 R->D

I think the above will actually happen

PA 18 R->D
PA 4 D->R corrected

Big Gap.

PA 15 R->D

Above COULD happen.  Gap widens after this

PA 3 R->D
PA 8 D->R
PA 7 D->R

Below would need either a 1994 scenario and/or a marquee candidate or a scandal

PA 17 D->R
PA 13 D->R

Corrected to show PA 4.

I'm optimistic about PA 6 because you have State Rep. Mike Gerber as a candidate with the possibility of State Sen. Andy Dinniman.  Both are far superior candidates to Lois Murphy.

[TeePee4Prez]

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

So you totally ignored the points about U.S. Attorney Meehan. Typical.

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.

Uh, how?

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Hahaha...right. They're insane. They do realize that 10 and 17 have GOP registration advantages, right?

Yes Phil I realize that and am also calling for PA 10 to flip back considering you have a large field of candidates plus it's a very GOP area.  If Scranton was in the district, I'd still call it for Carney, but considering the Dem areas are in PA 11 in NE Pennsylvania, it will be tough for Carney to hold.

Pat Murphy is not going anywhere and is making a name for himself already.  Mike Fitzpatrick took positions outside the views of his district and got burnt despite his prior popularity.  2008 will be no different and a comeback attmept will be an uphill battle for Mike Fitzpatrick.