2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/SpareBostonian/status/1424520474327924744

I don't think this means much.   The lawyers would basically play the role of saying what's allowed and not allowed when they draw the map, but that wouldn't be the final say on what's allowed to be drawn.

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 13-district map of Michigan.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

60/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
88/100 on the Compactness Index
81/100 on County Splitting
58/100 on the Minority Representation index
57/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Michigan: 9R to 4D

2018 Michigan Attorney General Election: 8R to 5D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Michigan: 7D to 6R

2018 Michigan Gubernatorial Election: 10D to 3R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Michigan: 8R to 5D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Michigan: 7R to 6D


Opinions?

[Nyvin]

Using the regions the commission posted it's possible to make 2 northern districts using whole counties and keep most of the regions together, just have to give Kalkaska to Northeast/East Central.

It pushes the Ottawa district south which is part of the southwest region, but the map still looks fine.  



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1ebc24d-66b3-4e54-8f55-66480b747c95

It's possible to inch the two VRA district's BVAP up to 50%, but it probably requires municipality splits.

[Tekken_Guy]

Using the regions the commission posted it's possible to make 2 northern districts using whole counties and keep most of the regions together, just have to give Kalkaska to Northeast/East Central.

It pushes the Ottawa district south which is part of the southwest region, but the map still looks fine.  



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1ebc24d-66b3-4e54-8f55-66480b747c95

It's possible to inch the two VRA district's BVAP up to 50%, but it probably requires municipality splits.

A few questions here:

Would Debbie Dingell run in the Western Wayne district or the Washtenaw-based district here?

What happens to the Oakland County reps (Stevens, Slotkin, Levin, Lawrence)? They all live in Oakland but there's only two seats in the county.

[Nyvin]

Using the regions the commission posted it's possible to make 2 northern districts using whole counties and keep most of the regions together, just have to give Kalkaska to Northeast/East Central.

It pushes the Ottawa district south which is part of the southwest region, but the map still looks fine.  



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1ebc24d-66b3-4e54-8f55-66480b747c95

It's possible to inch the two VRA district's BVAP up to 50%, but it probably requires municipality splits.

A few questions here:

Would Debbie Dingell run in the Western Wayne district or the Washtenaw-based district here?

What happens to the Oakland County reps (Stevens, Slotkin, Levin, Lawrence)? They all live in Oakland but there's only two seats in the county.

No idea about Dingell.

It's possible to add a third district to Oakland.  I don't think the commission is going to add multiple county splits just to satisfy incumbents though,  most likely only 1 non-detroit metro district goes into the Detroit Metro region to equalize population IMO.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b65dc7f6-204b-414f-8204-4541a260e549

[CookieDamage]

Two attempts at a DEM gerrymander. I prefer the latter one.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's the purpose of splitting the UP? It doesn't look like the western district is a particularly realistic Democratic prospect, so it doesn't look worth the effort.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b9e84208-7e5e-4fd1-b1fb-23230a1c58fc
Map I made on basis of these regions.
5 seats nested entirely within Detroit. Lines were drawn to be compact. 11th becomes white plurality but remains black performing, shifting more into Oakland. The bulk of Detroit forms the core of the new MI-12. There is a clear Lansing CD, and a CD in Michiana that has land borders that are two perfect straight lines. 4 Clinton districts, 10 Whitmer districts, 6 Stabenow districts, 5 Peters districts, and 7 Biden districts.

A shame my MI-06 doesn't work under the actual 2020 numbers...

[Nyvin]

Here's an interesting way to do it, whole counties everywhere except what South Central region needs to fill in the population, along with the Detroit Metro obviously.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/ace0f20b-59cc-44e3-b098-0c5ef18646e9

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The basis for this map was 2 black seats entirely within Wayne and seeing how it influenced the map overall. I also designed the map to have 7 Biden districts.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/294fb031-bfd7-4fce-8a28-1c004b2ce17b
This was the result.

[CookieDamage]

What's the purpose of splitting the UP? It doesn't look like the western district is a particularly realistic Democratic prospect, so it doesn't look worth the effort.

I mean what effort? Took two seconds on DRA and besides it looks fun and unique, not like other girls (single UP districts)

EDIT: It could also go very narrowly DEM in a wave or special election with a horrible GOP-er.

[S019]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

[lfromnj]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

They had actual ok maps* and then they remade into these. They split up Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor and East Lansing and Lansing.
Somehow Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor have "different" values according to Dem hack public comments but Monroe County and Ypsilanti make perfect sense to place together.
This districting process is equally as bad as the 2010 process but at least the 2010 process faced media criticism.
I now 100% oppose independent commissions because at least partisan gerrymandering is in the public light instead of all this stuff.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

They had actual ok maps* and then they remade into these. They split up Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor and East Lansing and Lansing.
Somehow Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor have "different" values according to Dem hack public comments but Monroe County and Ypsilanti make perfect sense to place together.
This districting process is equally as bad as the 2010 process but at least the 2010 process faced media criticism.
I now 100% oppose independent commissions because at least partisan gerrymandering is in the public light instead of all this stuff.

Nah the real reason the college towns were split was because that proposed map had only 2 Dem districts, both safe, and 5 GOP ones. Then as few people noted that Biden won the region overall and the commission as a whole couldn't justify giving R's a supermajority of seats in this region with that data.

Note that I don't exactly think drawing a map one region at a time is all that good cause it leads to situations like this, when you look at one region without its impact on the whole. The Commission is going to find it rather hard to get more than 1 R seat out of Wayne for instance.

[lfromnj]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

They had actual ok maps* and then they remade into these. They split up Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor and East Lansing and Lansing.
Somehow Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor have "different" values according to Dem hack public comments but Monroe County and Ypsilanti make perfect sense to place together.
This districting process is equally as bad as the 2010 process but at least the 2010 process faced media criticism.
I now 100% oppose independent commissions because at least partisan gerrymandering is in the public light instead of all this stuff.

Nah the real reason the college towns were split was because that proposed map had only 2 Dem districts, both safe, and 5 GOP ones. Then as few people noted that Biden won the region overall and the commission as a whole couldn't justify giving R's a supermajority of seats in this region with that data.

No it is obvious lying because they said they weren't even going to look at partisan data today.  Maybe they could justify it later on other grounds but today on COI grounds the idea that Monroe and Ypsilanti belong together just show independent commissions are useless. The intent is obviously partisan in the end but they left that secret and tried to justify it on the most absurd grounds possible. There is 0 point to this charade when they are just drawing what a Democratic legislature would have drawn with previous Michigan rules which still limited township and county splits.

[Gass3268]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

They had actual ok maps* and then they remade into these. They split up Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor and East Lansing and Lansing.
Somehow Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor have "different" values according to Dem hack public comments but Monroe County and Ypsilanti make perfect sense to place together.
This districting process is equally as bad as the 2010 process but at least the 2010 process faced media criticism.
I now 100% oppose independent commissions because at least partisan gerrymandering is in the public light instead of all this stuff.

You can watch this process on YouTube. It's extreamly transparent. They are following the rules set forth by the Michigan State Constitution which literally puts partisan fairness over county/city/township lines or compactness. Thankfully we have Independent member Anthony Eid to make sure the Michigan Constitution is upheld.  

[lfromnj]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

They had actual ok maps* and then they remade into these. They split up Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor and East Lansing and Lansing.
Somehow Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor have "different" values according to Dem hack public comments but Monroe County and Ypsilanti make perfect sense to place together.
This districting process is equally as bad as the 2010 process but at least the 2010 process faced media criticism.
I now 100% oppose independent commissions because at least partisan gerrymandering is in the public light instead of all this stuff.

You can watch this process on YouTube. It's extreamly transparent. They are following the rules set forth by the Michigan State Constitution which literally puts partisan fairness over county/city/township lines or compactness. Thankfully we have Independent member Anthony Eid to make sure the Michigan Constitution is upheld.  

I watched the process and they said they were not focusing on partisanship at all today and they didn't mention partisan data today. Eid managed to bs his way. I assume they would adjust later but trying to defend Monroe and Ypsi over Ypsi and AA is an absolute joke from any perspective but pure partisanship.

[It’s so Joever]

Ypsilanti does not belong with Ann Arbor. Trying to argue it does is pure partisan hackery on your part.

[Stuart98]

Ypsilanti does not belong with Ann Arbor. Trying to argue it does is pure partisan hackery on your part.

Noted non-partisan redistricting expert, Forumlurker.

[Oryxslayer]

Today was mainly state house districts in the Upper Peninsula and north of the state. No real surprises, most decisions were made off population when it comes to this region, though I think the pop shifts made the Marquette seat bluer. There also is this potential swing district:

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1431022646376996869?s=20

Seems like a gift for the Dems, though given that Grand Traverse must be cut maybe this works out best with the county pop totals of the region. Or maybe a forward thinking GOP expects the lakefront vacation area to become Dem before the end of the decade and wants a future pack. Or maybe people want competitive seats in regions that are safe for one party or the other.

[Gass3268]

Here are the official Communities of Interest clusters. A brief description of how they were created:

This is an initial round of COI clusters, or "emergent COIs," extracted from public commentary from March through July. We will produce a second and final round incorporating August submissions as well, to be delivered on September 1. We chose a data resolution that produced 36 clusters, which are numbered A1–A36. This choice can be varied, but it’s important to consider usability by the commission, balanced with ensuring sucient richness of the supporting data.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1431123730017792000?s=20

Matching the maps to these clusters is the 3rd most important criteria set forth by the Michigan Constitution. Only behind following federal law and being contiguous.

[Gass3268]

The Commission is going to start drawing Congressional districts today. Going to start in the UP/North before heading to the Southeast and Lansing areas.

[BoiseBoy]

The Commission is going to start drawing Congressional districts today. Going to start in the UP/North before heading to the Southeast and Lansing areas.

Is there a way to watch this happen live, like with the Utah redistricting?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Commission is going to start drawing Congressional districts today. Going to start in the UP/North before heading to the Southeast and Lansing areas.

Is there a way to watch this happen live, like with the Utah redistricting?

They should live stream it on YT. I’ll post a link if I see it.

Here’s a channel link: https://m.youtube.com/user/MichSoSOffice/featured