FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL (user search)
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  FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL  (Read 5304 times)
Gass3268
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« on: March 13, 2016, 03:42:31 PM »

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

Will be interesting to see if Bernie takes any of the collar counties. In Michigan we saw Hillary win Wayne and Oakland, yet he still won the state. Eager to see how Lake and DuPage vote.

I imagine that Will County will be his best of the 5 collar counties. While Bernie didn't win Macomb, Oakland, or Wayne, he was able to keep the margins down in Wayne while essentially tying in the suburban counties. This allowed him to match the vote there with the rest of the state. The strategy needs to be the same here. Keep the margin reasonable in Cook, get a net tie in the collar counties, and then dominate the rest of the state.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 04:07:55 PM »

The thing about the suburban counties around Detroit is that they have a lower median income than the collar counties around Chicago. DuPage and Lake are full of wealthier establishment Democrats who are more likely to vote for Clinton.

I know that anecdotal evidence should always be taken with a grain of salt, but if anyone knows the collar counties, it's muon:

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2016, 04:23:30 PM »

I assume that Sanders will dominate the rural counties along the Wisconsin and Iowa border.
But how about the southern part of the state? The whites there are more like their counterparts in the South than those in Upper Midwest.

That's a good question.
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