UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

Labour doing some expectations management with Kingswood, it seems.

I chuckled at the ‘well it was a 11,000 majority in 2019’ which errrr the follow up question is what was the Mid Beds, Tamworth, Selby majority?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Azhar Ali selected as the Labour candidate for Rochdale. He is the leader of the Labour group on Lancashire County Council.

[Duke of York]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

[Logical]

Azhar Ali selected as the Labour candidate for Rochdale. He is the leader of the Labour group on Lancashire County Council.

Labour has fallen so far they can't even rig a selection properly these days smh.

[YL]

Uh oh. Galloway says he's standing in Rochdale.

By my count this will be the eighth essentially different constituency he's been a candidate in.

[YL]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

Assuming they do win the by-elections I think Labour will get a small boost in the general election, but only a small one. They didn't hold Corby in 2015, and they also didn't hold any of their gains in the 1987-92 Parliament at the 1992 election, though they did come very close in Vale of Glamorgan. Additionally, the major boundary changes in the Kingswood area will dilute any effect there to the point of invisibility, and the constituency which takes the largest part, Bristol North East, should be safe for Labour anyway.

For the Lib Dems and their predecessors, on the other hand, holding by-election gains long term has been a significant part of how they've accumulated seats. The obvious topical example is Rochdale: the Liberals won it from Labour in a 1972 by-election (the victor being the now infamous Cyril Smith) and held it for 25 years. The boundary changes affect their chances a bit too, by dismembering Tiverton & Honiton and adding Gerrards Cross to Chesham & Amersham (though that last thing may not be quite the boon for the Tories it once would have been), but North Shropshire is now a plausible Lib Dem seat in the next Parliament in a way which it never would have been if it hadn't been for the by-election.

[TheTide]

Uh oh. Galloway says he's standing in Rochdale.

By my count this will be the eighth essentially different constituency he's been a candidate in.

He'll presumably also be a candidate at the general election (probably not in Rochdale) and in the meantime I think he's also standing for the London Mayoralty. Quite a busy year for him.

[CumbrianLefty]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

Assuming they do win the by-elections I think Labour will get a small boost in the general election, but only a small one. They didn't hold Corby in 2015, and they also didn't hold any of their gains in the 1987-92 Parliament at the 1992 election, though they did come very close in Vale of Glamorgan.

Yes, but those were elections Labour LOST.

Unless you think that is going to happen again, something like 1997 might be a better comparison - when the Tories recouped just a single one of their byelection defeats (Christchurch)

[YL]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

Assuming they do win the by-elections I think Labour will get a small boost in the general election, but only a small one. They didn't hold Corby in 2015, and they also didn't hold any of their gains in the 1987-92 Parliament at the 1992 election, though they did come very close in Vale of Glamorgan.

Yes, but those were elections Labour LOST.

Unless you think that is going to happen again, something like 1997 might be a better comparison - when the Tories recouped just a single one of their byelection defeats (Christchurch)

I wasn't suggesting that the Tories would win them back, just that the boost from the by-elections wouldn't be that big. So the swing might be a little above a typical one for those seats, but not by that much. In a 1992 or 2015 scenario that translates to not winning them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though even when losing, a government has always won at least one of their byelection losses back at a GE - if the Tories fail to manage that this time, it will set a new (unwanted) record.

(that they reversed all their 1987-92 defeats at that election became a cause celebre for them at the time - I remember it being still prayed in their aid just days before the 1997 GE)

[YL]

Well, here are my thoughts on each of the constituencies which have changed hands in by-elections this Parliament.

Hartlepool A lot has changed since that one. Based on current polling I'd expect a straightforward Labour regain, though I do feel that if the Tories recovered into hung parliament territory they might hold on here. There are no boundary changes.

Chesham & Amersham Boundary changes remove some relatively rural territory around Great Missenden, and add Gerrards Cross (upmarket and traditionally very Tory commuter town) and Hazlemere (a rather boring High Wycombe suburb). I suspect this harms the Lib Dems a little, mainly because it brings in people who didn't vote in the by-election, but on current polling I doubt the Tories get enough to win it back, given that it'll be very obvious who to vote for to beat them. There is a Buckinghamshire council by-election pending in Hazlemere which might be worth keeping an eye on.

North Shropshire Anecdotally Helen Morgan seems to be a popular MP, and if anything the minor boundary changes help her, as the areas removed are likely to be relatively strong for the Tories. On current polling I think she holds on, though this is not obviously a natural seat for the modern Lib Dems.

Wakefield The constituency is split in two. The parts of Wakefield proper in the seat go to Wakefield & Rothwell, which would have been low hanging fruit for Labour even without the by-election, while the rest goes to Ossett & Denby Dale, which is considerably more challenging but still winnable. Simon Lightwood has made the obvious choice, and given the split I doubt the by-election will add much to Labour's chances in O & DD, but in a landslide they're winning it anyway.

Tiverton & Honiton This is another case where the seat has been split. Some goes to Tiverton & Minehead, which I suspect will go Tory, but the bulk joins with parts of the current East Devon to form Honiton & Sidmouth, and Richard Foord is standing there. I think Honiton & Sidmouth is a bit unpredictable: there's no Lib Dem tradition in the added areas, which have been Tory since 1835, but Claire Wright's independent campaign suggests some latent non-Tory potential which the Lib Dems might be able to exploit. Still I think this is a relatively likely Tory win.

Selby & Ainsty Labour are helped by the boundary changes, which remove the "Ainsty" area and Tadcaster and add the usually Labour (at least locally) Kippax & Methley ward of Leeds, and if they're winning a majority I suspect Keir Mather holds on here.

Somerton & Frome This is another one with major boundary changes. Sarah Dyke is standing in the new Glastonbury & Somerton, which would look like a plausible Lib Dem gain even without the by-election, and I think she wins. The other seat, Frome & East Somerset, is complicated, but possibly the by-election will help Lib Dems claim that they're the challengers.

Rutherglen & Hamilton West The new Rutherglen would be one of the most obvious Labour targets in Scotland even without the by-election. Michael Shanks should hold on here.

Mid Bedfordshire The Labour winner Alistair Strathern lives in Shefford, which is being moved into the new Hitchin seat, which looked a more plausible Labour gain, and he is standing there; perhaps his incumbency will help Labour a little, though he's only the incumbent in a minority of the seat. The rump Mid Beds looks challenging for Labour even in a landslide, though the Tory performance in the by-election was so awful as to give pause for thought.

Tamworth Boundary changes are fairly minor. The Tories were on over 40% even in the by-election (the only one of their losses this is true of) and I suspect they will win this back.

[Continential]

Uh oh. Galloway says he's standing in Rochdale.

By my count this will be the eighth essentially different constituency he's been a candidate in.

How has his vehicle performed in local elections or has it been dormant since Batley and Spen?

[YL]

Uh oh. Galloway says he's standing in Rochdale.

By my count this will be the eighth essentially different constituency he's been a candidate in.

How has his vehicle performed in local elections or has it been dormant since Batley and Spen?

They stood a few candidates in 2022; the best results I'm aware of are in Batley & Spen (Batley East and Heckmondwike wards). They only seem to have had one in 2023, in Torbay of all places.

[warandwar]

Uh oh. Galloway says he's standing in Rochdale.

By my count this will be the eighth essentially different constituency he's been a candidate in.

How has his vehicle performed in local elections or has it been dormant since Batley and Spen?

They stood a few candidates in 2022; the best results I'm aware of are in Batley & Spen (Batley East and Heckmondwike wards). They only seem to have had one in 2023, in Torbay of all places.

The sect it was linked to, the CPGB-ML, left it. He might just do an independent campaign.

[YL]

The writ for Rochdale has been moved today. Polling day will presumably be Thursday 29 February, giving opportunities for candidates to use the word “leap” in their election slogans.

[Torrain]

Anti-Galloway intervention by Tony Lloyd’s family/staff:
https://twitter.com/tony4rochdale/status/1751981487719670084

[YL]

The Rochdale campaign is already featuring some profoundly unpleasant behaviour from certain right-wing online personalities and their Twitter sheep.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would appear that Rochdale's divine punishment for its electoral past is to have not one but two extremely obnoxious former Labour MPs running in the by-election there, as Simon Danczuk has been announced as the Reform candidate...

[TheTide]

The hustings could be quite a spectacle.

[xelas81]

It would appear that Rochdale's divine punishment for its electoral past is to have not one but two extremely obnoxious former Labour MPs running in the by-election there, as Simon Danczuk has been announced as the Reform candidate...

Worth nothing that Danczuk ran as independent in 2017 got 1.8% of the votes.
And Brexit party ran in 2019 and got 8.2% of the votes.

[YL]

It would appear that Rochdale's divine punishment for its electoral past is to have not one but two extremely obnoxious former Labour MPs running in the by-election there, as Simon Danczuk has been announced as the Reform candidate...

Given the reason why he is a former Labour MP, is this a wise choice?

[Zinneke]

Sunak should call a GE early just to spare us from this.

[YL]

11 candidates for Rochdale:

Azhar Ali (Lab)
Mark Coleman (no description) [1]
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK)
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem)
Paul Simon Ellison (Con)
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain)
Michael Howarth (no description) [2]
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) [3]
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green)
Ravin Rodent Subortna (OMRLP)
David Anthony Tully (Independent) [4]

[1] Anglican priest who supports Just Stop Oil. Twitter account
[2] Someone of this name is involved in running some bars in Rochdale. Maybe that's who this is?
[3] Founder of Parents Against Grooming UK. Twitter account
[4] Well there's a car repair place in Rochdale called David Tully & Co; whether this candidate has anything to do with it I don't know this candidate seems to be the owner.

[Duke of York]

Sunak should call a GE early just to spare us from this.

why?

[Zinneke]

Sunak should call a GE early just to spare us from this.

why?

We've seen a Galloway show before. And it'll be extra-insufferable because of Israel-Palestine flaring up.