2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

As expected all the media counts slow down dramatically to now see what numbers CEC comes up with so they can converge their numbers to the real count.

We should read the media numbers as their educated guess on what the count should be + the need to have a higher number for the political lean of their likely viewers.   In that sense, it is weird that TVBS has a better number for DPP Lai then SETN.  Historically TVBS is usually more accurate so I put more weight on TVBS numbers than SETN.

TVBS count

DPP Lai    39.6
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     27.2


SETN Count

DPP Lai    38.4
KMT Hou  33.6
TPP Ko     28.0


CEC count - tiny numbers (mostly South rural lean)

DPP Lai    43.1
KMT Hou  33.5
TPP Ko     22.4

[jaichind]

In the very early PR count, it seems TSP is underperforming.  This bodes well for DPP to tie KMT for the PR vote.  Still, the numbers are tiny so not a trend yet.

[jaichind]

So this seems to lean more to the "bad for KMT" loss you were talking about, right? TPP only 4-5% behind KMT definitely makes things tough

Correct.  TPP Ko is not finished as a force with these results so the KMT will have its work cut out for it if it wants to beat DPP Lai in 2028.  DPP Lai will have a difficult term without a legislative majority but it is not at all clear that the KMT can take advantage of it in 2028 with TPP Ko out there.

[jaichind]

All things equal in more pro-Blue urban areas there are signs that KMT-TPP consolidation took place for legislative races but most likely did not take place in rural areas where the DPP incumbency advantage still held sway.  So my prediction for pro-Blue urban areas was mostly accurate but off in rural seats where some of the DPP incumbents will hold on.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 20% of the vote in) (at this stage of the count there will be a clear DPP and rural lean)

DPP Lai    42.6
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     24.2

PR

DPP         38.8
KMT        34.5
TPP         19.8
NPP          2.3

TSP got almost nothing which is an ominous sign for KMT to beat out DPP on the PR vote

[jaichind]

UDN model says

DPP Lai       40.4
KMT Hou     34.9
TPP Ko        24.7

[jaichind]

KMT party vote is outrunning Hou which means that there is a large number of KMT PR - Ko President votes.

Correct.. that was always the problem for KMT Hou and it showed up in all the polling

[jaichind]

Looking at district seats so far I would say that DPP is much more likely to be SLP although KMT+ and DPP might be neck to neck.   TPP will hold the balance of power.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 33% of the vote in) (at this stage of the count there will be a clear DPP and rural lean)

DPP Lai    42.1
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     24.7

PR

DPP         38.3
KMT        34.4
TPP         20.3
NPP          2.3

[jaichind]

Media count converging

TVBS count

DPP Lai    40.3
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     26.5


SETN Count

DPP Lai    40.5
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     26.3

[jaichind]

If DPP Lai goes above 40% and beats KMT Hou by 6% then the KMT is lucky to have prevented a DPP majority and fight DPP to a virtual tie in terms of seats by bloc.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 45% of the vote in) 

DPP Lai    41.8
KMT Hou  33.1
TPP Ko     25.1

PR

DPP         37.9
KMT        34.4
TPP         20.7
NPP          2.4

Pan-Green vote consolidated around DPP Lai and DPP on the PR vote.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 55% of the vote in)

DPP Lai    41.4
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     25.4

PR

DPP         37.5
KMT        34.4
TPP         21.1
NPP          2.4

[jaichind]

KMT-TPP alliance in Taichung worked.  KMT outperformed in Taiching legislative races.  This puts the KMT mayor of Taichung Lu next in line to be the 2028 KMT Prez candidate to take on Lai.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 65% of the vote in)

DPP Lai    41.2
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     25.6

PR

DPP         37.3
KMT        34.4
TPP         21.3
NPP          2.5

[jaichind]

Media count converging

TVBS count

DPP Lai    40.5
KMT Hou  33.5
TPP Ko     26.0


SETN Count

DPP Lai    40.2
KMT Hou  33.4
TPP Ko     26.4

[jaichind]

The media count (TVBS and SETN) seamlessly converge their number to CEC and starting around now are just reporting the CEC count.

[jaichind]

DPP Lai has around 51% in Tainan, 49% in Kaohsiung, 48% in Jaiyi County, and 48% in Pingdong County.  That is an outperformance in all of them and shows that TPP Ko failed to cut into the core DPP vote.  It is in Central North areas where DPP Lai underperformed a bit.  TPP Ko was able to eat into the youth swing vote for DPP Tsai in those regions that were never part of the core DPP vote and these results show it.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 72% of the vote in)

DPP Lai    41.0
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     25.8

PR

DPP         37.0
KMT        34.4
TPP         21.4
NPP          2.5

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 83% of the vote in)

DPP Lai    40.9
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     25.9

PR

DPP         37.0
KMT        34.4
TPP         21.5
NPP          2.5

[jaichind]

In the New Taipei City 7th district sex tape famed DPP incumbent Lo is behind his KMT challenger 45.8 to 45.1

[jaichind]

Fun multi-cornered races

Taidong at large - DPP rebel did better than I thought
KMT          34.8
DPP           31.3
DPP rebel   25.4 (incumbent)
KMT rebel    6.2

Taipei 5th - I expected Pan-Blue consolidation which failed to show up
DPP           39.8
KMT          34.8
pro-TPP      23.1   (Pan-Blue background)

Yilan at large - I expected the KMT to win based on the TSP split of the vote which did not work out
DPP          42.1
KMT         33.7
TPP          20.9
TSP           2.4

Hsintsu City at large
KMT          35.2
DPP           32.2
pro-TPP     19.5 (Ko's sister)
NPP           12.6

Taipei 1st - as expected Pan-Blue split allowed DPP to win
DPP          47.3 (incumbent)
KMT         36.8
pro-NP     14.7 (backed by TPP)

Keelung at large
KMT         43.5
DPP          33.7
pro-NPP    17.3 (son of former DPP MP) (de facto support from TPP)

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 83% of the vote in)

DPP Lai    40.9
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     25.9

PR

DPP         37.0
KMT        34.4
TPP         21.5
NPP          2.5

So, will the KMT and TPP form a coalition?

At least in the legislature, it seems that is where we are headed.  In theory, Ko can do a deal with DPP but that would pretty much destroy him politically as he ran the election on an anti-New Tide platform and DPP Lai and the DPP legislative leadership are now going to be New Tide.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 90% of the vote in)

DPP Lai    40.5
KMT Hou  33.3
TPP Ko     26.2

PR

DPP         36.6
KMT        34.4
TPP         21.8
NPP          2.5

DPP looks en route to win the PR vote against the KMT in an upset.  KMT lost some votes to TPP while all Pan-Green parties' PR votes collapsed and consolidated around DPP.

[jaichind]

The count in district seats is getting a bit more favorable for KMT.

Right now the best guess on results are

District: KMT 36  pro-KMT Ind. 1  DPP 36
Aborihgine: KMT 3 pro-KMT Ind. 1 DPP 2
PR: KMT 13 DPP 13 TPP 8

Which results in:
KMT 52 pro-KMT Ind. 2 DPP 51 TPP 8

So KMT does become SLP by one seat which is an outperformance.

If someone told me that DPP Lai would beat KMT Hou by 6%-7% I would say DPP SLP for sure with a reasonable chance at DPP+ majority.