Canada 2005: seat by seat predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If this is anything like my U.K predictions, I'll call some areas very well, most fairly well... and will mess up bigtime in one or two areas... oh and they'll be a couple of ridings scattered all over the place that throw me completely. But they'll do that to everyone else so it's o.k...

I've also sent some predictions into www.electionprediction.com

Now for the key...

S: Safe
SL: Strong Lean
L: Lean
M: Marginal
SF: Slight Lean
NCF: No Clear Favourite

* indicates a pickup

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Atlantic

Newfoundland & Labrador

Avalon: Lib S
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor: Lib SL
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte: Lib S
Labrador: Lib S
Random-Burin-St Georges: Lib SL
St John's East: NCF
St Johns's South-Mount Pearl: NCF

Prince Edward Island

Cardigan: Lib S
Charlottetown: Lib S
Egmont: Lib S
Malpeque: Lib S

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton-Canso: Lib SL (?)
Central Nova: Con S
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley: Con S
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour: NCF
Halifax: NDP L
Halifax West: Lib L
Kings-Hants: Lib L
Sackville-Eastern Shore: NDP S
South Shore-St. Margaret's: NCF
Sydney-Victoria: Lib L (?)
West Nova: Lib M

New Brunswick

Acadie-Bathurst: NDP S 
Beauséjour: Lib S
Fredericton: Lib SF
Fundy: Con S
Madawaska-Restigouche: Lib M
Miramichi: Lib SL
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: Lib S
New Brunswick Southwest: Con S
Saint John: Lib SF
Tobique-Mactaquac: Lib SF

This WILL be updated. A lot. Note that the two Cape Breton ridings could see some strange voting patterns... again. Depends how the voters react to the fact that the promised cleanup of the Sydney Tar Ponds has yet to happen

[2952-0-0]

Oh and my seat (Saanich Gulf Islands) goes Tory because it's full of retirees.

[minionofmidas]

"Saint John's South - Mount Pearl"? Can't remember that name from last year. Are they fiddling with boundaries again?

[2952-0-0]

DAMN first past the post!!!

[Volrath50]

"Saint John's South - Mount Pearl"? Can't remember that name from last year. Are they fiddling with boundaries again?

No, they just renamed a number of ridings. Why people would want _longer_ names is beyond me, but longer names they have.

Two of the worst:

West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale

And then there are the Québec ridings with about six names strung togethers...

[minionofmidas]

West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country

That is a really, really, really weird name. I hope everybody living between the sea and the sky will be allowed to vote. Including me.

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That one existed at the last elections IIRC.

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Six? Are these guys nuts?

[Volrath50]

West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country

That is a really, really, really weird name. I hope everybody living between the sea and the sky will be allowed to vote. Including me.

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That one existed at the last elections IIRC.

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Six? Are these guys nuts?

Yes, A--D--F--W did exist last time, I meant I thought it was one of the worst overall, not worst of the new ones.
6 names strung together was exaggeration, but there are some crazy Québec names like:

Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute-Côte-Nord

I live in nice, simple Haldimand—Norfolk.

Edit: Ack! This is actually an _improvement_ over some older Québec riding names. I think I found the most hyphenated riding name ever:

Verdun—Saint-Henri—Saint-Paul—Pointe-Saint-Charles

Other former ugly names include:
Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup—Temiscouata—Les-Basques
Bonaventure—Gaspé—Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Pabok
Bellechasse—Etchemins—Montmagny—L'Islet
Beauport—Montmorency—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île-d'Orléans

What is it with Québec and stringing names together. At least they didn't use "Pays-Mer-à-Ciel"...

[Hatman 🍁]

What's really fun is when they conduct votes in the House, and they have to say the district name after a person when he or she has the same surname as someone else in the house. It takes for ever to say the woman from the Rimouski riding.  Say this three times fast "Mme. Thibault, Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques"

And remember Al, I am challenging you. While it is to soon to make predictions, I will start making them now, since you have started. I will amend them later.

[Gabu]

Oh and my seat (Saanich Gulf Islands) goes Tory because it's full of retirees.

No, it goes Tory pretty much purely because the leftists can't agree on any one party.  If you had taken any of the leftist candidates from the last election and transferred all of his or her votes to any other candidate, the latter candidate would have won.

[Hatman 🍁]

By the way, there will be one boundary change (Acadie-Bathurst) because the previous boundary was illegal.

"Depends" indicates that it depends how the parties are polling

My predictions, Atlantic Canada:

Newfoundland and Labrador:
Avalon:  Liberal
Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor: Conservative (depends)
Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte: Liberal
Labrador: Liberal
Random—Burin—St. George's: Liberal

Prince Edward Island
Cardigan: Liberal
Charlottetown: Liberal
Egmont: Liberal
Malpeque: Liberal

Nova Scotia
Cape Breton—Canso: Liberal
Central Nova: Conservative
Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley: Conservative
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour: Liberal
Halifax: NDP
Halifax West: Liberal
Kings—Hants: Liberal
Sackville—Eastern Shore: NDP
South Shore—St. Margaret's: Conservative
Sydney-Victoria: Liberal
West Nova: Liberal

New Brunswick
Acadie-Bathurst: NDP
Beauséjour: Liberal
Fredericton: Liberal
Fundy Royal: Conservative
Madawaska—Restigouche: Liberal
Miramichi: Liberal
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe: Liberal
Saint John: Liberal
New Brunswick Southwest: Conservative
Tobique—Mactaquac: Liberal

Changes:
Conservatives +1
Liberals -1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quebec

Montreal

East

Ahuntsic: BQ SF*
Bourassa: Lib SF
Hochelaga: BQ S
Honoré-Mercier: NCF
La Pointe-de-l'Île: BQ S
Laurier-Sainte-Marie: BQ S
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie: BQ S
Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel: Lib S

Central & West

Jeanne-Le Ber: BQ SF*
Lac-Saint-Louis: Lib S
LaSalle-Émard: Lib L
Mount Royal: Lib S
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine: Lib S
Outremont: Lib SF
Papineau: BQ SF*
Pierrefonds-Dollard: Lib S
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville: Lib S
Westmount-Ville-Marie: Lib S

Laval[/i]

Alfred-Pellan: BQ SL
Laval: BQ S
Laval-Les Îles: Lib M
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: BQ S

more soon

[Hatman 🍁]

Laval is not in Montreal, Al. 

Ok, well it seems you have skipped across eastern Quebec.. I will stick to my east to west predictions

Quebec - Part 1 = Eastern, Central, Northern and Western Quebec

East
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord: BQ
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine: BQ
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia: BQ
Jonquière—Alma: BQ
Lévis—Bellechasse: BQ
Manicouagan: BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup: BQ
Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute-Côte-Nord: BQ
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques: BQ
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean: BQ

Quebec City
Beauport—Limoilou: BQ
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles: BQ
Louis-Hébert: BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent: BQ
Québec: BQ

Central Quebec
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour: BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé: BQ
Joliette: BQ
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: BQ
Montcalm: BQ
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier: BQ
Repentigny: BQ
Saint-Maurice—Champlain: BQ
Trois-Rivières: BQ

Eastern Townships
Beauce: Liberal
Brome—Missisquoi: BQ pickup
Compton—Stanstead: BQ
Drummond: BQ
Mégantic—L'Érable: BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska: BQ
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: BQ
Shefford: BQ
Sherbrooke: BQ

Northern and Western Quebec
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou: BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue: BQ
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel: BQ
Gatineau: BQ pickup
Hull—Aylmer: Liberal
Laurentides—Labelle: BQ
Pontiac: Liberal
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles: BQ
Rivière-du-Nord: BQ
Terrebonne—Blainville: BQ

Predicted Change:
BQ: +2
Liberals: -2