Survey USA 50 State Senate Poll

[Smash255]

6 Senators 70% or over (4 Dems & the 2 GOP Maine Senators)
Johnson D-SD 72-22
Snowe  R-ME 72-24
Collins R-ME 72-25
Conrad  D-ND 71-24
Dorgan D-ND 71-25
Obama D-IL 70-25

Three Senators with 0 net approval (2 dems, 1 GOP)
Frist 47-47
Bill nelson 42-42 D-FL (interesting, though even if more than a blip or outlier means nada with Harris, with his approval in the other recent polls this looks like an outlier)
Menendez 39-39 D-NJ

12 Senators with Neg Approval (10 republicans, 2 Dems)

Chambliss R-GA 44-45
Martinez R-FL 43-44
Talent R-MO 43-44
Allard R-CO 44-46
Kyl  R-AZ 44-47
Cornyn R-TX 43-47
Burr R-NC 41-45
Dayton D-MN 41-46
Lautenberg D-NJ 39-45
Bunning R-KY 40-48
Burns R-MT 40-56
Santorum R-PA 36-57

Link to these & the rest

http://surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenatorApproval060523Net.htm

[Smash255]

The Chambliss numbers make no sense.  The DeWine numbers are not available, apparently.

Their is always a chance of an outlier,  but he has had a several months where he has been within a few points of where he is now, so its not like he is that far off from any other month.  His disapproval went up a bit, but his approval has only been above 50 a couple times & that was only 51%, and is only about 3-4 points below his average approval for the last year.

Don't know what problem you had getting into Dewine, pulled right up for me.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4937ce44-a9dd-409c-9415-c515bfdc2eb0

[Smash255]

Someone explain to me why Santorum is going to win again? Now you got these numbers in addition to the match up ones.

Explain how a 50-35-12 party breakdown is representative of PA *at all*.

His #'s are brutal regardless.  I decided to see what his approvals would be using a few different serts of a partisan breakdown

42% Dem, 38% GOP. 20% Ind Santorum would be at 37.3 % approve/ 56.5% disapprove

Using a 40% Dem, 35% GOP, 25% Ind,  Santorum would be at 37.1% approve, 56.8% disapprove

Using a 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind breakdown, Santorum is at 36.6% approve, 57.4% disapprove

And even if you split into 3 ways making it 33.33% each Santorum is only at 37.6% approve, 56.4% disapprove

PS is generally about 4-6 points more Dem than GOP, and in a year like this could be more of 7-10 points in the state (depending on the political situation of the time a state could swing a few points in its party representation from its typical representation