2004: Mission Accomplished!

[Maxwell]

Mission Accomplished

President Bush not running for re-election

May 2003 - Like James Polk before him, President Bush has announced that, along with ending major combat operations in Iraq, he would not be running for a second term. This has opened the field wide open for potential Republican Presidential candidates. Several names are rising through the cracks, with frontrunners being Virginia Senator George Allen, Majority Leader Bill Frist, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Arizona Senator John McCain. This came as a shock to everyone, and it looks like it'll be difficult for these candidates to get their funds and campaigns together. Not everyone, however, is so behind on the times.

Little Known Texas Congressman Ron Paul announces Presidential run



"This President has been pushing more and more big government, and I think we need to look at the results of that. We are heading for crisis if we do not turn around and look at what we've done. It's the same policies and we are heading for a disaster."

Alan Keyes jumps into the race!



"There is the same conversation in the party that goes in circles and circles, a constant capitulation of ideals in favor of electibility. I will not back down, I will fight on principle, and if you vote for me, you know what you are getting. Freeing yourselves of the influence of liberalism is the first step to enlightenment."

Bush is out!



"Look, I'm not running. Florida is keeping me busy enough. I will endorse someone when the time comes, but at this point, it's early, we are still digging through the candidates."

Early Polling: Allen's the favorite, McCain in 2nd

May 2003 - George Allen has consistently denied a bid for the Presidency, but early polling shows he would start off strong, at the top of the field. McCain has strong numbers, but barely holds on to a moderate coalition, and all polling shows that the smaller the field gets, the weaker McCain's chances get. With conservatives, McCain is persona non grata, voting against the Bush tax cuts and pushing a campaign finance bill, it's hard to see how he lasts into the later season.

Dick Cheney has the highest raw favorability numbers, but he has a lot of negatives as well, so the most favorable person is actually New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, even though he is not one of the top tier candidates. John McCain's favorability numbers are in shambles among Republicans, but he does better across the board.

National Republican Primary Poll:
25% Senator George Allen
22% Senator John McCain
14% Vice President Dick Cheney
8% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Mayor Rudy Giuliani
4% Congressman J.C. Watts
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Favorability Ratings (Among Party):
59/10 Senator George Allen
48/38 Senator John McCain
63/26 Vice President Dick Cheney
52/22 Majority Leader Bill Frist
62/5 Mayor Rudy Giuliani
39/11 Congressman J.C. Watts
4/12 Congressman Ron Paul
2/19 Commentator Alan Keyes

Candidates currently in the race are in italics.

[Maxwell]

June Announcements:

George Allen's In!



"President Bush's accomplishments in his first term as President are numerous: uniting America in a post-9/11 world, fighting terror, putting deadly leaders in Iraq on trial, and cutting taxes so job creators can make America a competitive place in the world. I will only continue this agenda, and push for more of the good of this administration! That's why I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States in 2004!"

John McCain comes to the forefront!



"We don't need more party linemen, we need more people willing to fight the good fight, to step beyond the party line, and to act. This country needs bold, brave leadership, and I have the skills to do it. As a representing voice of the American people, we can change the regular order in Washington, and I am willing to lead that charge!"

Former Governor John Engler announces exploratory committee



"If I am going to run for President, it will be on a platform of addressing serious concerns in our social security system. Let's face it: it's going to go broke in a couple of years. I have innovative, new ideas to fix the system, without sacrificing the program itself. The future of America depends on it."

Congressman J.C. Watts announces exploratory committee!



"I see the black people of America, and they don't look toward the GOP for answers. I always have to ask them why: and the answer seems to be a couple of tiers. Well, I want to get the message loud and clear to my people that the Democrats are not a welcome place for blacks! They do not get to the heart of the problems in America, and the Republican party does. Getting that message out there is the reason for this exploratory committee"

The Month of June: Candidates getting off their asses

June 2003 - With the surprise of Bush still in the air, candidates are frantically getting things together. Senator George Allen, the frontrunner as of this point, has announced his candidacy for President. What's strange about his campaign is the infrastructure: Allen is not set up well in Iowa or New Hampshire. Instead, he has his sights on a win in South Carolina bringing him to the nomination. When asked why, his campaign manager replied: "No Republican Nominee has won the nod without South Carolina, plain and simple." This may be true, but stands as an odd strategy in todays climate.

John McCain, on the other hand, is erring on the safe side in terms of states. The McCain infrastructure in Iowa is empty, and there is very little sign that it will build up at any point. However, his infrastructure in New Hampshire is already building and solid, and it looks like New Hampshire will be the place for John McCain to shine once again. The question will be is it enough, and if 2000 is anything to note, it might not be. However, McCain folks are optimistic that times are different now.

In the dark horse category, filed under huh, is Former Michigan Governor John Engler. After leaving office, he has spoken on the solvency of Social Security, and from the looks of it, his campaign will be a focus on those programs. That didn't work out well for Pete DuPont, but Engler seems keenly aware of that situation, but knows he can be different. Engler has stated; "Well, I started behind before, and during my terms as Michigan Governor, started behind many times, but I've gotten to where I am through the work effort I have put in, and I think where I started will have no effect on where I end."

Another, slightly lighter dark horse is Congressman J.C. Watts. Like Engler, represents sort of a single issue campaign, but unlike Engler, has the sort of wayward movement that could make him something hard to compete with. His efforts are strong in Iowa, and he has visited the state more than any of the currently mentioned candidate, and his efforts are being rewarded (besides Oklahoma, Iowa is the only state where Watts is in double digits).

Nationally, the trend continues of McCain is slipping and Allen reaping the benefits, but there seems to be more beyond the surface...

National Republican Primary Poll:
26% Senator George Allen
18% Senator John McCain
13% Vice President Dick Cheney
9% Majority Leader Bill Frist
7% Congressman J.C. Watts
4% Governor John Engler
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Iowa Republican Primary Poll:
29% Senator George Allen
16% Vice President Dick Cheney
13% Congressman J.C. Watts
10% Majority Leader Bill Frist
8% Senator John McCain
6% Governor John Engler
4% Congressman Ron Paul
2% Commentator Alan Keyes

New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll:
27% Senator John McCain
23% Senator George Allen
15% Vice President Dick Cheney
6% Majority Leader Bill Frist
3% Congressman J.C. Watts
3% Governor John Engler
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Senator Tom Daschle enters weak Democratic Field

June 2003 - After weeks of blech with Howard Dean holding a narrow but decisive lead over the field, Tom Daschle enters the race and shakes the entire thing up. Announcing a platform that attacks Bush's expansive deficit, increasing unemployment, and the way the Republicans are managing Iraq, Daschle moves to the top of the field immediately. However, more liberal Democrats aren't enthused, noting Daschle's palling with lobbyists, and his more moderate stances on a wide array of issues including immigration and the enviorment. With a big chunk of the Democratic electorate still undecided, Daschle's entrance doesn't change too much about the unimpressive Democratic field.

National Democratic Polls:
21% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
16% Governor Howard Dean
12% Senator John Kerry
10% Senator Joe Lieberman
6% Minority Leader Dick Gephardt
4% Senator John Edwards
2% Reverend Al Sharpton
1% Senator Bob Graham
1% Fmr. Senator Carol Mosely Braun

[Maxwell]

I am very interested in this - would be cool to see Bush's approval ratings in the next poll. With Iraq considered to be a win and ending so quickly, along with the post 9/11 bounce, I'd expect it to be pretty high.

I don't think there was a change made in Iraq, I think that Bush just also announced that he wasn't running for re-election during his infamous "Mission Accomplished" speech. But this is a great TL so far.

Yes this is correct. The war is running the same, it's just that Bush, during his grand pronouncement, went that step further.

[Maxwell]

Later/Last Announcements:

Vice President Dick Cheney out!



"I don't desire the Presidency, I don't want it, and frankly, I don't need it. I will leave that to the people with more to prove. I've proven myself in this life."

Majority Leader Bill Frist enters the race!



"The Democratic party represents a turning back of our values. I can not, and will not, endorse such a reversal on our ideals. It's time the Republican Party stands up for families, and does so with the vigor that it requires. None of the candidates so far have addressed that as a sheer importance, which is why I believe it is my job to do so."

Health Secretary and Former Governor Tommy Thompson makes his entrance!



As does Former Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire




And now the field is rounded out... Or is it?

July and August were rocked by two big announcements, and pushed a little by two minor announcements. Vice President Dick Cheney, whose polling numbers showed he'd start strongly but not have much room for growth, has decided not to enter the Presidential race. When asked of who to endorse, he merely said "The Campaign matters most of all, and I will be looking to that for my endorsement."

Majority Leader Bill Frist, who many insiders thought was leaning against the race, decided to make a move and enter in Cheney's absence. Frist in this race is entering as the christian right candidate, which makes his candidacy all the more formidable in Iowa, where he is strongly building his forces. In terms of resources, the campaign is starting off somewhat weak, but are catching up quick as the hiring of Campaign Manager Steve Schmidt can tell you.

And then two announcements that matter a lot less: Health and Human Services Secretary and Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson and Former Senator Bob Smith. Thompson's announcement is a bit more major, and he has potential given his record in Wisconsin, but his campaign infrastructure is weak, and he's not exactly the most star studded candidate. Smith, on the other hand, is completely irrelevant. After his loss to Sununu, his candidacy smacks of perennial, and chances are, he'll be hanging around Ron Paul and Alan Keyes numbers.

However, still to come is the Iowa Straw Poll. With John McCain out and George Allen focusing elsewhere, it will be a horse race to see who comes out on top as the next big challenger. J.C. Watts, Tommy Thompson, and Bill Frist are noted as the top contenders, though not to be counted out are John Engler and even a candidate not already in the race, Former Undersecretary of Education Gary Bauer.

With a new poll out, Top Republicans leading Top Democrats by double digits, Allen nearly 10 points in the lead, and Bush Approvals at 60%.

National Republican Primary Poll:
28% Senator George Allen
19% Senator John McCain
14% Majority Leader Bill Frist
6% Congressman J.C. Watts
4% Former Governor John Engler
4% HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson
2% Congressman Ron Paul
2% Former Senator Bob Smith
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Top Republicans v. Top Democrats

v. Tom Daschle

51% Senator George Allen
41% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
6% Undecided

54% Senator John McCain
36% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
9% Undecided

48% Majority Leader Bill Frist
37% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
12% Undecided

v. Howard Dean

53% Senator George Allen
35% Governor Howard Dean
10% Undecided

58% Senator John McCain
32% Governor Howard Dean
8% Undecided

54% Majority Leader Bill Frist
38% Howard Dean
5% Undecided

V. John Kerry

50% Senator George Allen
42% Senator John Kerry
6% Undecided

52% Senator John McCain
37% Senator John Kerry
7% Undecided

51% Majority Leader Bill Frist
45% Senator John Kerry
4% Undecided

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's performance?
60% Approve
35% Disapprove
5% Unsure

Wesley Clark to endorse Tom Daschle for President

Instead of fading to the background like the last couple of Democratic frontrunners, Tom Daschle has been fighting hard to continue his narrow lead in the polls. Receiving endorsements from Democratic power brokers like Senator Patrick Leahy, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and even Former President Bill Clinton, he has cemented himself as the establishment candidate, pushing Congressman Dick Gephardt to as much as openly contemplate his future on the campaign trail. And now he has received the endorsement of someone who very much contemplated entering the race, General Wesley Clark. This endorsement not only bodes well for Daschle in terms of less competition, but boosts his advantage in Iowa (Clark's a fan of Ethanol), where him and Howard Dean are currently in a brawl for the win.

Democratic Primary National Polling
24% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
17% Governor Howard Dean
11% Senator John Kerry
8% Senator Joe Lieberman
5% Senator John Edwards
4% Congressman Dick Gephardt
2% Senator Bob Graham
1% Reverend Al Sharpton
1% Former Senator Carol Mosely Braun

[Maxwell]

The Road to the Nomination

REPUBLICAN SIDE

November of 2003

"Let's give a welcome to Macca here! Welcome to the Real World of America!"

After months of holding large leads over Senator John McCain, footage leaks of George Allen at a rally chastising a McCain cameraman in a extremely racist manner. The blowback gets worse when Allen first denies it, then claims he made "Macca" up, then apologizes for in an insincere way. Combining that with less than stellar debate performances, and you get a candidate whose numbers are dropping like a pile of bricks. Senator Frist benefits from this, but if only it had happened later...

January of 2004

Iowa Caucus Results:
29.1% Congressman J.C. Watts
27.7% Majority Leader Bill Frist
14.2% Former Governor John Engler
9.7% Senator George Allen
9.2% Senator John McCain
7.1% Congressman Ron Paul
2.2% Former Senator Bob Smith
0.8% Ambassador Alan Keyes
0.3% Others
0.1% Former Governor Tommy Thompson

J.C. Watts, in a last ditch effort, tours around the state of Iowa, opening Campaign offices in every single county, and surprises when, after trailing in the polls by 5-10 point margins, beats the Majority Leader in a triumph. Surprises include John Engler, who wasn't much of a factor at all, and Ron Paul, who was left out of most polls. After Iowa, Tommy Thompson drops out of the race and endorses Frist, and Bob Smith drops out of the race and endorses Ron Paul.

Many McCain supporters were disappointed by the results in Iowa, but have no fear, because New Hampshire was bound to be a McCain slide. The major contest, in fact, would be the second place winner, and that's the contest that Frist, with his stronger resources, was able to compete and win.

New Hampshire Primary Results:
45.2% Senator John McCain
21.2% Majority Leader Bill Frist
12.3% Congressman J.C. Watts
10.1% Congressman Ron Paul
5.2% Former Governor John Engler
3.1% Senator George Allen
1.5% Others
1.4% Ambassador Alan Keyes

Ron Paul's surprise performance was merely a flash in the pan. With the endorsement of a Former Senator in the state, many pundits brushed it off, and gave him very little attention. Engler's prospects looked grimmer and grimmer, but from the start he had promised to make his campaign about entitlement reform, and planned ahead for his own state primary to get him some delegates and some weight. Meanwhile, South Carolina looked like the contest to be, with three candidates who were vying for their vote. McCain, while desperately unpopular with conservative Republicans, struck a cord with moderates in the party, and increasingly, the waring Watts and Frist made the primary look like an opening for McCain. There was hope.

South Carolina Poll:
27% Senator John McCain
23% Majority Leader Bill Frist
23% Congressman J.C. Watts
10% Senator George Allen
5% Former Governor John Engler
3% Congressman Ron Paul
0% Ambassador Alan Keyes
9% Undecided

National Poll:
30% Senator John McCain
25% Congressman J.C. Watts
21% Majority Leader Bill Frist
6% Former Governor John Engler
4% Senator George Allen
3% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Ambassador Alan Keyes
10% Undecided

DEMOCRAT SIDE

January of 2004

Democrats were not very excited about Minority Leader Tom Daschle, and were seeking alternatives for his nomination. However, with none coming about, he looked like a surefire winner in Iowa, and sure enough, he won the state in a big way.

Iowa Caucus Results:
42.2% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
24.8% Former Governor Howard Dean
15.3% Senator John Edwards
10.1% Congressman Dick Gephardt
3.2% Senator John Kerry
1.1% Senator Joe Lieberman
0.5% Preacher Al Sharpton

The result was surprising in some ways. Howard Dean had fallen in the polls for a while after negative advertising had backfire in a big way against Daschle, and most polls had Edwards surging to second place. However, this was considered a big win for Mr. Dean. Dean proclaimed Iowa has the center of his comeback. Edwards, meanwhile, continued to center his efforts around a very crucial win in South Carolina.

Pictured: Howard Dean's Iowa Concession Speech

"If Iowa has told us anything, it's that this campaign is going to go onward, to all of the states of America. They said we couldn't get where we are today, but we did, and we are going to do much more!"

After this result, Senator Kerry dropped out to endorse Daschle, and Gephardt did the very same thing. With most of the resources and endorsements, Daschle looked on his way to winning New Hampshire. However, there was a snag in his plans:

New Hampshire Primary Results:
43.4% Former Governor Howard Dean
31.2% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
15.2% Senator John Edwards
8.2% Senator Joe Lieberman
1.3% Preacher Al Sharpton
0.7% Others

Daschle saw this as a tiny setback to ultimately the nomination being his, and the press made much the same point. Dean, however, touted New Hampshire, and resources for his campaign began to come back, seeing him as a winner. Edwards performance did not shake him, as his numbers were robust in states like New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, and while nothing was definite, these next few states were Edwards time to shine.

Senator Lieberman dropped out and, in a shocking move, endorsed John McCain from the other side. This move angered Democrats and put some pressure on Daschle to remove Lieberman from his chairmanships, but Daschle saw this as a conflict of interest in a way, and did no such thing.

Arizona: Lean Daschle
Delaware: Toss-Up
Missouri: Lean Daschle
New Mexico: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Definite Daschle
Oklahoma: Lean Edwards
South Carolina: Toss-Up

Pre-NH National Poll:
43% Minority Leader Daschle
18% Former Governor Howard Dean
17% Senator John Edwards
12% Senator Joe Leiberman
2% Preacher Al Sharpton
8% Undecided

Post-NH National Poll:
40% Minority Leader Daschle
27% Former Governor Howard Dean
23% Senator John Edwards
3% Preacher Al Sharpton
7% Undecided

[Maxwell]

REPUBLICAN SIDE

In Michigan and Florida, hope could go away from for one candidate and be gained by another. McCain has held a narrow lead in both states, and that means an ending for John Engler and a beginning for McCain as the unstoppable frontrunner. However, one of those turned out not to be...

Michigan Primary Results:
39.5% Senator John McCain
30.9% Former Governor John Engler
12.3% Majoirty Leader Bill Frist
10.1% Congressman J.C. Watts
4.2% Congressman Ron Paul
1.1% Ambassador Alan Keyes
0.9% Others

Florida Primary Results:
33.4% Majority Leader Bill Frist
32.9% Senator John McCain
20.1% Congressman J.C. Watts
9.3% Former Governor John Engler
3.2% Congressman Ron Paul
1.1% Others



"This nominating contest is far from over! We aren't stopping this train for nobody!"

McCain had been vying hard for the endorsement of Jeb Bush, but combined with his general hostility towards the Bush administration, and the fact that Bush had looked more and more favorably towards Frist, McCain failed to catch the endorsement. In addition, Watts campaign looked to lower resources in Florida in the name of cheaper primaries, allowing his numbers to sink and move toward Frist.

McCain decided at that point to stop running away from Republicanism and instead run toward it. He ran on a platform of a strong Iraq mission, applauding the administrations policy decisions on that front. He amped up his fight against pork barrell spending, criticizing both Watts and Frist for projects that they were bringing toward their states. This helped his numbers, and his Super Tuesday was helped immensely by this strategy:

Super Tuesday Results!
McCain: Alaska, Hawaii, Wyoming, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Nevada

Frist: Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah

Watts: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri

Post-Super Tuesday National Poll:
46% Senator John McCain
27% Majority Leader Bill Frist
17% Congressman J.C. Watts
4% Congressman Ron Paul
6% Undecided

John McCain was looking more and more like the frontrunner, with a strong delegate lead and a growing money chest. However, Bill Frist wasn't about to let this go so easy, and very quickly after the Super Tuesday contests...

"We can not afford to let the party fall into the wrong hands. As much as I think my vision for America is the best, we can not let it stand to fall for John McCain, who has moved too far for our party to tolerate. I will be leaving this race and endorsing our Majority Leader, Senator Bill Frist, for President of the United States!"

Post-Watts National Poll:
47% Senator John McCain
41% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Congressman Ron Paul
7% Undecided

On the Republican side, things were still looking like all out civil war, with Frist's resources and endorsements still of abundance, and McCain still looking unacceptable even after his fight for Republican values shook up the race and won him plenty of states. It would have to take the man in the White House to change the tide of this race...

DEMOCRATIC SIDE

Minority Leader Tom Daschle was quickly losing a grip of the nomination that was almost promised to be his. Following poor debate performances and notable gaffes, he was slipping in his numbers and Howard Dean and John Edwards were quickly gaining on him. The results of the last few primaries surprised many observers:

Tom Daschle: Missouri, South Dakota
John Edwards: Oklahoma, South Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico
Howard Dean: Delaware

Post-SC National Polls:
32% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
31% Senator John Edwards
27% Former Governor Howard Dean
3% Preacher Al Sharpton
6% Undecided

Senator Edwards wowed Democratic voters. With his youth, his charisma, and his points on poverty, Senator Edwards was quickly becoming the hottest new thing for the Democratic Party. He inspired the people like no one else, and certainly not Tom Daschle. After these set of primaries, Edwards started looking like the one...

"The people have been antagonized by this administration, their lack of willingness to fight poverty, their willingness to bomb people elsewhere, and their willingness to intentionally misrepresent and misuse information. Any Republican running now would do the same. I am willing to be a change of pace for this country!"

Edwards light was starting to outshine that of Howard Dean, whose lone Delaware win caused some concern with donors. It was going to take a win in both of the next two contests in order for voters to continue to take his candidacy seriously, and unfortunately for him:

Michigan Primary Results:
36.6% Former Governor Howard Dean
31.7% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
31.3% Senator John Edwards
0.4% Others

Washington Primary Results:
36.2% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
35.7% Former Governor Howard Dean
25.9% Senator John Edwards
1.6% Preacher Al Sharpton
0.6% Others

Dean's loss in Washington would cause his candidacy to no longer be taken as seriously as the contest between Edwards v. Daschle. Despite this, Dean would still continue to be in the running, criticizing both for a perceived willingness to follow the administration on war, and Daschle for his relatively conservative immigration and energy policy views.

February 8th to Super Tuesday
Maine: Definitely Dean
Tennessee: Definitely Edwards
Virginia: Definitely Edwards
D.C.: Toss-Up
Nevada: Lean Daschle
Wisconsin: Toss-Up
Hawaii: Toss-Up
Idaho: Lean Daschle
Utah: Lean Daschle

Post-Wash/Mich National Poll:
35% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
34% Senator John Edwards
23% Former Governor Howard Dean
2% Preacher Al Sharpton
5% Undecided

[Maxwell]

Awesome TL! Keep it up!

Thank you!

If Bush, Jr., didn't seek reelection in 2004, the GOP would still hold the White House that year though because they were stronger on national security than the Democrats.

I'm not so sure, it was pretty close, and a different Democrat/Republican scenario could change things.

[Maxwell]

Beginning of March, Crunch Time!

REPUBLICAN SIDE

February 9th:
Kansas: 64% Frist, 33% McCain, 3% Paul
Louisana: 70% Frist, 27% McCain, 2% Paul

February 12th:
Virginia: 53% Frist, 43% McCain, 3% Paul
Maryland: 47.5% McCain, 46.2% Frist, 4% Paul, 2% Keyes
D.C.: 50% McCain, 45% Frist, 4% Paul

February 19th:
Washington: 52% McCain, 39% Frist, 7% Paul
Wisconsin: 49% McCain, 46% Frist, 4% Paul

February 24th:
Puerto Rico: 82% McCain, 18% Frist

National Poll:
53% Senator John McCain
36% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Congressman Ron Paul
6% Undecided

Texas Poll:
47% Majority Leader Bill Frist
36% Senator John McCain
8% Congressman Ron Paul
9% Undecided

Ohio Poll:
47% Senator John McCain
42% Majority Leader Bill Frist
3% Congressman Ron Paul
8% Undecided

February was a good month for the McCain campaign. In spite of facing a strong challenge from Majority Leader Bill Frist, his pushing toward a strong management of the Iraq war made him more popular in the party than he had been in a long time. After losing the primary in Kansas and Louisana heavily, some worried McCain's nomination was in danger by losing the Potomac Primaries , but managed to slip by with endorsements from Senator John Warner and Governor Bob Ehlrich. While McCain trails in the Texas primary, he narrowly leads in Ohio, and run laps around Frist in the other two.

Frist says he's far from done, but the signs are there: Campaign Co-Chair and Governor of Massachussets Mitt Romney has left the campaign, and he's yet to be replaced. Frist's stump speech has suffered immensely by the last couple of primaries, and he's starting to fall behind in resources. When asked if he would accept a VP spot on the McCain ticket, there was some snap back, but also some acceptance of the possibility. Not only does Frist trail in the primary, but he's also clearly the less electable candidate: McCain's favorability has him still popular, at 49/32, while Frist trails nationally 28/36. Because of Bush's continually narrowing popularity, both lead the Democrats, but the question is how long will this last?

52% Approve of President Bush
46% Disapprove of President Bush
2% Unsure

McCain v. Democrats
50% McCain - 41% Daschle
52% McCain - 40% Edwards

Frist v. Democrats
44% Frist - 43% Daschle
45% Frist - 41% Edwards

Winners bolded if outside of a five point margin of victory.

DEMOCRAT SIDE

February 8th:
Maine: 43% Dean, 29% Daschle, 27% Edwards

February 10th:
Tennessee: 49% Edwards, 30% Daschle, 20% Dean
Virginia: 48% Edwards, 26% Daschle, 25% Dean

February 14th:
D.C.: 40% Dean, 39% Daschle, 15% Edwards, 6% Sharpton
Nevada: 36% Daschle, 35% Edwards, 28% Dean

February 17th:
Wisconsin: 36% Edwards, 34% Daschle, 29% Dean

Howard Dean withdraws, makes no endorsement

February 24th:
Hawaii: 66% Edwards, 32% Daschle
Idaho: 58% Daschle, 41% Edwards
Utah: 51% Edwards, 48% Daschle

National Poll:
49% Senator John Edwards
42% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
9% Undecided

Inspite of having more money, more endorsements, and a record of organization for Democrats, continually Tom Daschle has been upset and beaten by the Edwards campaign. Smartly putting its money where it needs to, it has been avoiding states either already within a range of victory (as polls in Virginia and Tennessee had previously shown), and investing heavily in winnable situations (Utah, Wisconsin). Daschle has shown a surprising lack of adeptness in terms of combating Edwards.

However, Super Tuesday looks like a day for Daschle to recover. Most of the states are big money states, states where Daschle is far more able to compete in. He's put in big block advertising in delegate heavy states like California, New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio, touting his record of supporting working people. Edwards hope is that he pulls closer than expected in the bigger states and sweeps some of these smaller, caucus states.

Debate polling has Edwards consistently ahead, showing him as quicker, with more and more Democrats vehemently against the President, and Daschle's attempts to be the Democrat that can win is not giving them the fuel for their fire. In addition to that, Daschle's connections with lobbying firms has not helped him in anyway, and given more fuel to fire the base towards an Edwards nomination.

[Maxwell]

Liking this scenario.

Surprised Giuliani stayed out, since he would have been popular in 2004 than in 2008.

Giuliani was secretly behind McCain from very early on, and as a result, did not enter because of that support.

[Maxwell]

End of the Nominating Process - July 1st, 2004

REPUBLICAN SIDE

Pennsylvania Republican Primary:
62% Senator John McCain
32% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Congressman Ron Paul



"Pennsylvanians understand the problems that ail this country and the solutions are right there in front of us, we just have to move forward to reach them! I am ready to lead the Republican Party and the American people to victory!"

Around the beginning of April, John McCain won a commanding victory in the state of Pennsylvania. With this victory, the Republican nominating contest is basically over: Frist had hoped to close the gap to less than 10 in a very McCain favored state, but McCain won by 30. Uniting Republicans of all stripes, McCain became more and more popular, and he started to look like an invincible general election candidate.

On June 5th, however, tragedy struck. On his way to Alaska, McCain's airplane crash landed, killing everyone on-board. The Senator and his wife were both on the plane.

R.I.P. John McCain - August 29th, 1936 - June 5th, 2004

This left a convention of McCain's delegates to decide who would take his place. A lot of the more moderate delegates were divided between Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, but ultimately conservative delegates had a large majority, and went along with the nomination of McCain's opponent: Majority Leader Bill Frist. This wasn't considered much of an offense to his life: many in the McCain extended family and friends knew Frist and him weren't deeply enemies. They weren't super friendly, but compared to someone closer to J.C. Watts or on the more conservative wing, he was one of the better choices.

Sympathy for Senator McCain allowed for Frist's numbers to increase, and with a vicious Democratic nominating process underway, his favorables were looking stronger than ever, and so were his prospects.

Republican Nominee: Majority Leader Bill Frist



"Even in times of stiff opposition, McCain held his beliefs firmly, and honestly. He is a great American hero, someone who has truly leadership abilities, and I will forever respect him. He is the type of person who we should all follow in the footsteps of."

Talked About VPs:
Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge
Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Vice President Dick Cheney
Governor Bill Owens
Former Governor John Engler
Senator Chuck Hagel
Senator Jon Kyl
Governor George Pataki
Businessman Donald Trump
HUHA Secretary Tommy Thompson

DEMOCRATIC SIDE

Daschle withdraws, doesn't endorse Edwards



"The path toward the nomination no longer exists for me, and I think it's time I take my name out of the ring for the Presidency of the United States.

On May 27th, running out of money, definitely out of chances, and barely clinging on to a lead in his home state of South Dakota, Tom Daschle makes an emotional statement withdrawing from the Presidential race. His disappointment shows: he will have no Senate seat to go home to in 2005, he had made it clear that the Presidential race would be his first priority. What a shock for observers that he had lost the nomination he had so strongly fought for and coveted.

Meanwhile, with sympathy toward McCain high and Edwards running low on resources due to a competitive primary, Democratic chances at the Presidency looked lower than ever. Edwards had strongly fought for the nomination, but polls had consistently placed him as the weaker of the two possible general election candidates, and this showed him far behind.

Democratic Nominee: Senator John Edwards



"We need to fight poverty where ever it is. That will be my focus as President of the United States, making a compassionate case for helping those who can not help themselves. I thank all of my supporters for pushing me toward the nomination, and I will fight for you as hard as I can as President!"

Leaked VP List:
Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin
Senator John Kerry
Former Defense Secretary William Cohen
Governor Tom Vilsack
Senator Joe Biden

President Bush Approval:
52% Approve
45% Disapprove

Majority Leader Bill Frist - 47% Favorable, 37% Unfavorable
Senator John Edwards - 32% favorable, 49% Unfavorable

National Poll:
53% Majority Leader Bill Frist
37% Senator John Edwards
2% Others
8% Undecided

As of July 1st, the only thing that looked like it could help Edwards close the gap and change public opinion was the Democratic nominating process, which was coming up in a weeks time. At this point it seemed like doom for the campaign, but insiders in the campaign knew anything could change in a moment.

[Maxwell]

Democratic National Convention

July 7th - VP Choice



"In order to defeat the problems that face us, we have to have a united front. Poverty, terror, crime, all of these issues are ones that, if we work together, can be solved. That's why my running mate is a man whose strengths are very obvious, and whose ideas may differ from mine, is a reliable man capable of the Presidency. Therefore, the next Vice President of the United States shall be..."

Former Secretary of Defense William Cohen



"Thank you Senator Edwards. Today we see a country very different from what was 4 years ago. I don't think it is in a good way. Our foreign affairs are filled with misinformation and chaos. My views have developed from back when I was in the Senate, and for all intents and purposes, I can no longer identify as a Republican. It's like Ronald Reagan said: I didn't leave the party, the party left me. Edwards is an honorable man, he will do the right thing."

Post-VP Pick National Polls:
51% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R)/Unknown
39% Senator John Edwards (D)/Former Defense Secretary William Cohen (D)
2% Other
8%

On July 7th, Edwards made the coveted VP pick, and it surprised many observers. Picking Former Republican, Former Defense Secretary William Cohen brought up a risky strategy: alienating Democrats in favor of the center. However, William Cohen did do something very good for the Edwards ticket: he brought experience, credibility, and bi-partisanship. Cohen made it known to anyone who would ask that now he was a Democrat, but his rhetoric always smacked of the same centrist pragmatism that was his Senate career.  It helped out a lot with Independents, Republicans, and undecideds, and did a surprising amount early on to boost Edwards numbers.

Republicans went after Cohen, putting pictures all over the internet with Cohen's face over a picture of Benedict Arnold, but the conclusion was already there: Cohen was a strong backing man for Edwards, and it was a sign of good fortune for his campaign.

The Democratic Convention was a wild success. In the second week of July, Democrats brought on all stars: Joe Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, and even brought out unexpected faces: State Senator Barack Obama, wowing the crowd with his hopeful message, and Minority Leader Tom Daschle, who would endorse the ticket strongly, and snipe at his close rival Bill Frist, calling his leadership "Pathetic", issuing a warning to the Republicans "If you run on scaring people, you'll only succeed in doing that."

But the man who came out on top that night was the man at the top of the ticket. Edwards inspired the crowd in a way he never had before, and if you had heard him right, it was like he was talking directly to you.

"We talk about the future, what changes that we want to make, but that doesn't matter unless the people are behind it. We forget it in the Washington bubble all the time: policies this policies that, it's the people that we need to think about. The Edwards-Cohen administration will be one that actively listens to the citizens of this great nation, each and every one of them, to bring forward change and hope. This is a democracy in America, and it's time we start acting like one!"

Post-DNC Convention National Poll:
50% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R)
44% Senator John Edwards (D)
1% Others
5% Undecided

For the first time in months, it looked like Democrats really had a shot at turning this election around. But it was going to be a long road until then...

[Maxwell]

Events leading up to the Republican National Convention

Anti-Edwards Ad - Liberal lawyer



"Shame on Senator John Edwards. His whole career he has spent as a trial lawyer, affiliating with fellow trial lawyers, and when he gets to congress, he fights tort reform. Senator Edwards has voted hundreds of times in favor of granting amnesty to illegal immigrants, people who violate this nations laws. Senator Edwards supports ending minimum sentences, allowing more criminals on our streets. John Edwards: A liberal lawyer, liberally interpreting the law."

I'm Bill Frist and I approve this message.

Ad season had begun right during the Democratic convention, and with millions more in fundraising, Frist begun to go after Edwards. With his campaign, he ran against Edwards roots as a trial lawyer, running hard on his policies as a liberal. However, these ads seem to lack a certain kick to them. Without the strategic mind of Karl Rove behind the Frist campaign, there was a noticeable void there. These ads didn't make too much of a dent in the Edwards armor, which was starting to build.

August 10th, 2004 - VP Announcement



"This next person is a man outside of the Washington establishment. He is someone who has led one of the largest states in the country to fiscal solvency. And most importantly, in one of the darkest days of this country, he led millions of people through it with gravitas, heart, and did it through sheer force. He is undoubtedly qualified for this job and any job he applies himself to. Give it up, for the next Vice President of the United States..."

New York Governor George Pataki



"Thank you, President-elect *cheers* This nation has seen what it is like to have a philandering, trial lawyer in office before. I mean, just look a little bit over 4 years ago. And now we are in a time of terror, and a time of hostility, and we simply need a steady hand over the wheel. I have more confidence in him than in anyone else, Bill Frist has that steady hand!"

National Poll as of August 10th:
49% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN)/Governor George Pataki (R-NY)
44% Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/Former Defense Secretary Bill Cohen (D-ME)
2% Others
5% Undecided

With the pick of Pataki, Frist did some to stop the bleeding. However, it didn't do nearly enough: Pataki struck observers as competent but boring, and not nearly enough to carry the state of New York. Giuliani had polled far better in national polls, and didn't even bother conservatives as much as it could've. Simply put, it was good, but could be a lot better.

This started to make conservatives worry. It was almost like they were blowing a very strong advantage early on, and the race is already competitive. The Edwards campaign inherited the Dean infrastructure, surviving off of individual donations, getting more efficient and better oiled. The Frist organization was a shell of the Bush one, large, but increasingly clunky and inefficient.  This was starting to spell doom for the Republicans.

Senate Updates!

Narrowly, Flake wins Special Primary for McCain's seat, will face Attorney General Goddard



Republican Primary:
35.8% Congressman Jeff Flake
34.1% Fmr. Congressman Matt Salmon
14.7% Superintendent Tom Horne
12.3% Fmr. Governor Jane Dee Hull
3.1% Scattered Others

Competitive Senate Races
Alaska - 49% Knowles, 42% Murkowski
Arizona - 48% Goddard, 45% Flake
Colorado - 48% Salazar, 47% Coors
Florida - 50% Castor, 44% McCollum
Georgia - 47% Isakson, 44% Oxford
Lousiana - 44% Vitter, 26% John, 15% Kennedy
Kentucky - 47% Mongiardo, 46% Bunning
North Carolina - 46% Bowles, 46% Burr
Oklahoma - 48% Coburn, 44% Carson
Pennsylvania - 47% Toomey, 46% Hoeffel
South Carolina - 52% DeMint, 41% Tanabaum

Interesting Races
South Dakota - 55% Thune, 42% Bradford
Utah - 52% Cannon, 42% Matheson
Connecticut - 51% Bysiewicz, 43% Shays
Illinois - 51% Obama, 42% Rauschenberger

In the Senate, the map begun to look very interesting. Democrats and Republicans both had many possible pick up seats, and many incumbents leaving due to retirement (Dodd, Daschle, and Bennett), or being picked off by a primary challenge (like Arlen Specter).

Democrats have had a lot of chances to lose seats, but they've also done marvels with recruitment. Broad names in states where there definitely shouldn't be a competitive possibility  are competitive. This means the chances for a Democratic majority is existent, the numbers are there, and it's all down to the Presidential election to decide whether that becomes real.

[Maxwell]

Republican Convention, and Events Leading up to the Debates



"I grew up in Europe, and I know, from experience, that there is no place more generous, more compassionate, and more caring than the United States of America!"

In one of the few uplifting speeches of that night, Arnold Schwarzeneggar struck a strong note with the American people. His speech, putting in our minds an immigrant who loves this country, made the crowds go wild.

Besides Schwarzeneggar, though, the Republican Conventions were mostly a wash. Pataki, never very inspiring in the first place, felt dull. Frist made people question whether or not he should've been the nominee, and left the question of his foreign policy credentials out in the open.

President Bush got up to speak only for a short time, and that was very telling of the mood. It seemed as if the GOP was taking the Presidency for granted: looking at the opinion polls and seeing still regularly large/decent sized leads for the ticket even with the most powerhouse DNC anyone could remember. That, was the mistake of the night.

Post-RNC Polling:
49% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN)/Governor George Pataki (R-NY)
43% Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/Former Defense Secretary Bill Cohen (D-ME)
2% Others
6% Undecided

30% - Toss-Up (within 3)
50% - Lean (between 4-8)
70% - Likely/Safe (Lead of 9 or more)

Toss-Up States:
Florida - 49% Frist, 46% Edwards
Iowa - 48% Frist, 45% Edwards
Minnesota - 48% Edwards, 47% Frist
New Hampshire - 47% Frist, 46% Edwards
New Mexico - 49% Frist, 47% Edwards
Ohio - 48% Frist, 45% Edwards
Oregon - 49% Edwards, 46% Frist
Pennsylvania - 48% Frist, 47% Edwards
Wisconsin - 48% Edwards, 46% Frist

Compared to where they were, the Edwards campaign looked ready to go. The President's education legislation was becoming increasiningly unpopular, as was the President himself, and Edwards knew where to hit the president on this issue. Combined with attacking the Presidents handling of the economy and the war, and linking it to Frist, it became clear that Frist had been defined by the actions of the President.

"We see where this administrations priorities are: lying to Americans about military interventions, putting wealthy donors ahead of the common man, and signing an Education bill that will only leave more of our children behind. We can't handle four more years of this lack of leadership, and that's all that Bill Frist really has to offer: is more of the same. I'm offering a healthcare plan that breaks of the old system, that actually helps people than helping insurers, and saves money. I'm offering a serious plan to smartly deal with Iraq while truly facing terror head on. And most importantly, I am offering an administration of transparency: one where the voice of the people, not the voice of insiders, matters."



"I see Bill Frist out there, and what's clear to me is frightening: he's at a complete lack of foreign policy expertise. Now, I have no problem with that, we all have different skills. But the fact that he can lack this knowledge and still pretend that he is qualified for this new role is utterly false. A president needs to be a foreign affairs leader, and he is utterly lacking in that area. Compare that to Edwards: a member of the intelligence committee, the first to say that this information we have been given is faulty. Edwards is the man we need in the White House, Frist is completely wrong."

Breaking News: Powell to leave administration, endorse Edwards



"My concern with the Republican ticket is an over forcefulness. I really believe that we need to take these next couple of steps lightly. I think John Edwards understands that far better than the Republican ticket, and his VP choice tells me that he has a mature idea of what his administration should be like, rather than choosing for electibility. Edwards has swayed me to the Democratic ticket, and I have never voted Democrat in my life."

Pre-Debates National Polls:
48% Frist
45% Edwards
2% Others
5% Undecided

The polls should one thing, but momentum clearly showed another.

[Maxwell]

Debates and Important Senate Races

 

First Debate - 55% Edwards, 34% Frist
VP Debate - 52% Cohen, 42% Pataki
Second Debate - 49% Frist, 46% Edwards
Third Debate - 51% Edwards, 43% Frist

After three Presidential debates and a Vice Presidential debates, the momentum of Edwards has finally pushed him to a lead after trailing in June by over 20 points. Both candidates made a pact not to talk about the death of Senator John McCain, and not to invoke his image in any of their ads or their debates. The strategy of Edwards was to paint the image of Frist before Frist could paint him, and he managed to do so quite effectively.

Frist was imagined as a foreign policy dunce, a fierce partisan who couldn't care less about the future of America, but instead cared about what was in it for him. The populist message about fixing poverty made ways with many Americans, particularly those in the South and the Rust belt, where Edwards numbers began to balloon. Most importantly, the Edwards campaign took a third way position on foreign policy, talking about specifics and ways to get done with Iraq quickly rather than just chastising the administration.

In truth, Cohen sounded more aggressive than Edwards did during the debates, and Republicans tried to spin his performance as petulant and angry, and put Pataki as someone who was just trying to survive out there.

Even with all that going for the Edwards campaign, however, President Bush's approvals begun recovering after a long weak run, and this made it harder for the Edwards people to call this race anything but a toss-up.

Late October National Poll:
48% Edwards/Cohen
47% Frist/Pataki
1% Others
4% Undecided

Toss-Up States:
Florida - 48% Edwards, 47% Frist
Iowa - 48% Edwards, 46% Frist
Missouri - 49% Frist, 46% Edwards
Nevada - 48% Frist, 45% Edwards
New Hampshire - 49% Edwards, 47% Frist
North Carolina - 49% Edwards, 48% Frist
Ohio - 49% Edwards, 47% Frist
Virginia - 48% Frist, 46% Edwards
West Virginia - 47% Frist, 44% Edwards

Important Senate Races

Carson: The strongest campaign, but can it win?



Oklahoma: 48% Tom Coburn, 47% Brad Carson

Congressman Brad Carson's campaign was named by experts in the field as the best campaign of the season. In spite of Majority Leader Bill Frist dominating Edwards by 20 point margins in the state, Carson barely trails his predecessor in Congress. Whether this is because Coburn is too conservative even for Oklahoma is a question, but almost certainly Carson is making it a race to watch.

Other Competitive Senate Races
Alaska - 50% Knowles, 44% Murkowski
Arizona - 48% Goddard, 47% Flake
Colorado - 51% Salazar, 46% Coors
Georgia - 48% Isakson, 46% Oxford
Lousiana - 43% Vitter, 31% John, 12% Kennedy
Kentucky - 49% Mongiardo, 46% Bunning
North Carolina - 47% Bowles, 46% Burr
Pennsylvania - 47% Hoeffel, 46% Toomey
Utah - 51% Cannon, 45% Matheson

Interesting Races
Florida - 52% Castor, 43% McCollum
South Carolina - 53% DeMint, 42% Tenebaum
South Dakota - 58% Thune, 39% Bradford
Connecticut - 52% Bysiewicz, 44% Shays
Illinois - 53% Obama, 40% Rauschenberger

[Maxwell]

Edwards wins surprisingly large victory

Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/Former Defense Secretary William Cohen (D-ME) - 51.7%, 355 EV's
Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN)/Governor George Pataki (R-NY) - 47.1%, 183 EV's
Others - 1.2%, 0 EV's

In spite of a pretty poor performance in the West Coast, The Edwards-Cohen ticket won a large electoral victory over Frist/Pataki. The campaign was riddled with a strange absence of President Bush and Vice President Cheney on the campaign trail, a weak campaign structure from Frist/Pataki, and a strong Democratic apparatus. The message from Edwards-Cohen, which was third way on some issues and populist on others, made surprising headway in the South, where they barely lost South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisiana.

With that, Democrats also performed strongly in the Senate races. His results pushed forward a lot of Democrats:

Competitive Senate Races
Alaska - 49.2% Knowles, 49.1% Murkowski, 1.7% Others
Arizona - 50% Goddard, 48% Flake, 2% Others
Colorado - 55% Salazar, 43% Coors, 2% Others
Georgia - 49% Isakson, 48% Oxford, 3% Others
Lousiana - 45% Vitter, 32% John, 15% Kennedy, 8% Others
Kentucky - 52% Mongiardo, 47% Bunning, 1% Others
North Carolina - 53% Bowles, 46% Burr, 1% Others
Pennsylvania - 50% Toomey, 49% Hoeffel, 1% Others
Oklahoma - 49.5% Carson, 49.4% Coburn, 1.1% Others
Utah - 52% Cannon, 45% Matheson, 3% Others

Interesting Races
Florida - 56% Castor, 43% McCollum
South Carolina - 53% DeMint, 45% Tenebaum
South Dakota - 61% Thune, 39% Bradford
Connecticut - 54% Bysiewicz, 44% Shays
Illinois - 58% Obama, 38% Rauschenberger
Missouri - 54% Bond, 45% Farmer

+2 Democratic Gain

Democrats - 50
Republicans - 49
Independents - 1

House Elections

+8 Democratic Gain

222 Republicans
212 Democrats
1 Independent

Interesting Gubernatorial Races
Indiana 50% Daniels, 48% Kernan
Missouri: 51% McCaskill, 48% Blunt
Montana: 49% Brown, 48% Schweitzer
Washington: 50.1% Gregoire, 49.3% Rossi

0 Gains for Either Party!

Edwards win managed to sweep in some surprising contenders. Even in the two most unlikely places, Arizona (where McCain's death left a special election) and Oklahoma (where it voted against Gore by over 20 points), Democrats won elections. In spite of that, Democratic seats were left open for Republicans to take, which leaves the Senate in a very competitive place.

Edwards would have to face a divided government. Whether he could handle it, is whats next...

[Maxwell]

I take it Vitter and Isakson both won their runoffs as well? Still, excellent results.

I forgot Georgia did run offs, I will do those next!

[Maxwell]

The Peculiar case of Georgia and Lousiana: Run-up to the Run-Off



"Congressman Isakson thought he had this thing locked  up, but our campaign has been in Georgia, connecting with people, and I think this Senate seat is going to be the People's seat. They want someone who isn't beholden to special interests, and I clearly won't be."



"Georgia knows me. They know I'm reliable, they know I've represented their interests for years. Who they don't know is Mr. Oxford. They don't know how much he pays in taxes, and in these last months, I am going to demand we see his tax returns! We can't have someone who is taking advantage of a broken system in the office of Senator."

In Georgia, Cliff Oxford faced a hard obstacle: facing a strong candidate in Johnny Isakson, without the turnout of a Presidential election, in deep red Georgia. Money wasn't tight though, as a millionaire, Oxford was able to keep up with Isakson. However, Isakson, as of late taking a populist route, began ragging Oxford's business dealings, and demanding to see his tax returns. This helped Isakson considerably in the run up polls, and Oxford began to drop hard.

Georgia Results:
56.2% Congressman Johnny Isakson
43.8% Businessman Cliff Oxford

"Lousiana has seen the problems with tax and spend policies. I won't embrace them, my opponent does. I will embrace common sense policies that save Lousianans money."



"David Vitter is having relationships with prostitutes. Now is that what Lousiana wants? I want someone who will represent Louisana to the fullest, and that's what I'd do as Senator."

Congressman Chris John went hard on the offensive when they made it to the run-off. However, without proper turnout, it was as if he was floundering for anything. Vitter kept on the talking points, and even though Johns margins were creeping closer, Vitter seemed safe. That's why the close margin came as a shock to the Vitter campaign:

Lousiana Result:
50.2% Congressman David Vitter
49.8% Congressman Chris John

[Maxwell]

The First Couple of Months

Cabinet of President John Edwards



"I, John Edwards, do solemnly swear..."

Vice President: William Cohen
Chief of Staff: Kathleen McGlynn

Secretary of State: Richard Halbrooke
Secretary of Treasury: Roger C. Altman
Secretary of Defense: Warren Rudman
Attorney General: Dennis Archer
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack
Secretary of HHS: Jeanne Shaheen
Secretary of Homeland Security: Lee Hamilton
Secretary of Transportation: Ray LaHood
Secretary of Labor: David Bonior
Secretary of Commerce: Jim Johnson
Secretary of Housing and Development: Andrew Cuomo
Secretary of Energy: Wesley Clark
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Merrill McPeak
Secretary of Education: Rahm Emanuel

Approvals by March 2005:
53% Approve
35% Disapprove
12% Unsure

On January of 2005, John Edwards was inaugerated as the 44th President of the United States. Getting started right away, he announced a huge amount of cabinet employees and got most of them through with few controversies. He made sure to eliminate just about everyone from the Bush administration, even some of the less controversial ones, to clean out the administration with his own people.

The most controversial pick was that of Wesley Clark for the Department of Energy. Liberals criticized the pick, noting his close relationship with Former Minority Leader Tom Daschle, and demanding a more liberal nominee. Clark noted his support of ethanol and his dedication towards a more energy independent country, but many slammed the book on him. It took convincing of Republicans, which Cohen still had distant but existent relationships, in order to push Clark through.

Republicans attempted to filibuster Richard Halbrooke, former Clinton ambassador, but he nevertheless managed to pass by a relatively narrow 62-35 in the Senate. The quickness of these proceedings was embraced by the press.

Senate Leadership:
Majority Leader: Harry Reid (D-NV)
Majority Whip: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Leader: Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Minority Whip: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

House Leadership:
Speaker of the House: Dennis Hastert (R-IL)
Majority Leader: John Boehner (R-OH)
Majority Whip: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Foreign Policy - First Elections, New Terror Strategy

In foreign policy, the first elections occurred in Iraq, which Republicans quickly hailed as the beginning of a democratic Iraq. Edwards, testing out a pragmatic foreign policy, acknowledges the war was done under faulty intelligence, and promises to move quickly toward a safer Iraq, keeping troops in the region to help secure progress before any form of exit. This causes some anger from fellow Democrats, but his approvals hold steady. Bombings still occur, and the overall mission is still questionable.

Secretary Holbrooke announced the roll out of a new strategy in combating terror in Afghanistan. Upon receiving new information on the location of Osama Bin Laden, Holbrooke shifted more troops over to Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to search for him. Knocking out terror as a whole required defeating the taliban in their country, and the focus of foreign policy was from then on shifted to that mission.

Domestic Front - Poverty and Tort Reform



"I said from Day 1 of this campaign that we would fight the good fight against Poverty, and with a significant win of this office, I am going to keep my promise. We are drafting the first comprehensive legislation combating poverty since LBJ's 'Good Society', and I can assure all of you, we need this for our children. I am hoping we can bring along people of all strides, Republican, Democrats, Independents, to get their voices and make the legislation as inclusive as possible."

On an economic agenda, the Edwards people and the Democratic Senate began drafting a large piece of anti-poverty legislation. Minority Leader Jon Kyl said of the legislation in a backroom meeting with Republican Leadership -

"The bill from the President's office is dead in the water. We will not negotiate on it. We will not build on it. We will not stand with it. Our mission in the next four years is to defeat John Edwards and this is the centerpiece of his administration."

This comment sparked a firestorm in the press, and caused Minority Leader Kyl's approvals to drop dramatically. Edwards and many other key members of the administration called on Republicans to denounce the words of Senator Kyl and build on the project. Even Jack Kemp called out Kyl for his comments and said it was shameful that "Republicans won't even talk about poverty!"

More on the Domestic front, Edwards vetoes the Class Action Fairness Act, calling the bill "a travesty, a violation of the peoples rights, and an expansion of power for large corporations". The Senate votes largely in favor of the piece of legislation, but barely miss the veto override requirement (64-33), with some prominent Democrats switching their vote after the Edwards veto. Republicans called the Democrats cowards for their backing off the legislation and the leader of the fight, Senator Chuck Grassley, stated that he would continue to fight for tort reform in the Senate.

[Maxwell]

Foreign Progress, but problems continue at home



"The President is dedicated to increasing spending and running up deficits, all the while the mission in Iraq is becoming a disaster in front of our very eyes. This Presidents negligence toward the Troops is disgusting, and we will be proposing a surge of troops in Iraq."

Presidential Approval (July 30th, 2005):
47% Approve
45% Disapprove

As of the end of July, Republicans have continued to stall the President's poverty agenda, pointing to high levels of spending and called it a distraction from the War on Terror that is going on. They have similarly blocked other pieces of legislation pushed by the President, wanting to focus on the war at hand.

"Gun control is a crucial issue, and we need to fight the problem of gun violence continually, and with a new Democratic Senate, I believe we can work together to defeat this problem by banning Assault Weapons."

On July 5th, the Administration stood with Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) and Senator Susan Bysiewicz (D-CT) with the introduction of a slightly reformed Assault Weapons Ban. Originally wanting to re-introduce the bill wholesale, Feinstein got concerned when Senators Goddard and Bowles told her straight forward that they would not vote for any Gun Control that isn't changed fundamentally to meet the center. Most vote counters still don't take the bill seriously, with very few Republicans willing to cross over on any Democratic bill, and many Democrats hesitant to join the administration on such a prominent issue as guns.

"The President is targeting real terror. In Iraq, we are working on the mission, finishing up what we are doing, and shifting our focus on what needs to be done. And what needs to be done is eliminate Osama Bin Laden and the Talaban, and we are doing just that in Afghanistan."

In Iraq, A Prime Minister was recently elected, and Jalal Talabani was elected President of Iraq. Bombing still occurs in Iraq, and it's still volatile. Republicans have attacked the President mercilessly for his handling of Iraq, even going on to calling him a coward for his shift of focus on Afghanistan. The administration still is very hesitant to any sort of withdraw, much to the impatience of Democratic liberals.

Progress is being made in Afghanistan, however. Major terrorists are being targeted and knocked off in the region, and the administration is heading closer and closer to Osama bin Laden. Defense Secretary Warren Rudman noted progress in this area, as did State Secretary Richard Holbrooke, and many are viewing foreign affairs as a success for the President, but domestic policy to be going through a bad start.

Virginia and New Jersey Polls
45% Kaine - 44% Davis - 4% Potts
51% Corzine - 32% Schundler

New Jersey Dem Primary: 56% Corzine, 38% Codey
New Jersey Rep Primary: 43% Schundler, 41% Forrester, 13% Murphy
Virginia Rep Primary: 51% Davis, 43% Hager
Virginia Dem Primary: 100% Kaine

[Maxwell]

I take it Kaine holds the Virginia governorship for the Democrats.

Warner's massive popularity helps him.

On McCain: I believe Gov. Napolitano would appoint a placeholder.

Normally, I would agree. However to respond to the McCain thing: It was the year of his election. I think Napolitano would just let the election happen. Again, this is me, not really knowing Arizona law, so maybe I'm off.

[Maxwell]

Virginia Gubernatorial Results:
52.3% Congressman Tom Davis
46.7% Lt. Governor Tim Kaine



New Jersey Gubernatorial Results:
47.1% Senator Jon Corzine
45.3% Mayor Bret Schundler

In Virginia and in New Jersey, Democrats saw the effects of effective/ineffective candidates. Tom Davis ran on a campaign of bipartisanship, running toward the center, criticizing President Edwards for his lack of leadership, not signing a bipartisan tort reform bill, and pushing hard on poverty. By the time the election came around, Tim Kaine, who had been leading until October, had nothing to do but lose.

In New Jersey, Senator Corzine's business dealings increasingly came under scrutiny, and by the time of the election, Corzine was one of the most unpopular people to win elected office. Schundler struck voters as far too conservative for New Jersey, which lead to the very unpopular Jon Corzine to be elected the states Governor, by a shockingly close margin (most polls still had Corzine ahead by 5-10).

[Maxwell]

If Kaine had lost in 2005 to Davis, would the Dems get him to run for the US Senate in 2006 against Allen ?

We know Mark Warner would likely win the other US Senate seat in 2008.

I'm not sure, probably not since the stench of losing might be too much.

[Maxwell]

"We are still working hard to fight another War on Poverty, but Republicans are continuing to push and shove this project away. These are the same people that fought social security and Medicare, two programs that Americans are empowered by. We need to fight poverty further, and we need to do so now."

Presidential Approval (Dec. 2005):
42% Approve
51% Disapprove

The President begins to face the problems of a divided congress: Gun Control, in spite of being negotiated, is soundly rejected, with Senators Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Tony Knowles, Blanche Lincoln, Ken Salazar, and Evan Bayh voting against it on the Democratic side, and only Senators Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Pat Toomey, a major contributor to the legislation, voting for it on the Republican side. Many Democrats and some Republicans were on the fence on the legislation, and some felt that bringing out Former Senator and VP William Cohen would've pushed this legislation closer to passage, but the filibuster from Senator DeMint ultimately sunk the legislation.

Increasingly, poverty legislation looked impossible. With Senators Brad Carson, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Evan Bayh still on the fence, and very few Republicans are even willing to talk, citing the administrations need for revenue on the project. Senator David Vitter took to the hill to make it clear: the bill will not pass unless there are cuts to other projects and no taxes.

Republicans also started pointing to Edwards as LBJ - a vicious, power hungry man whose appetite for destruction knows no bounds. The failure of Vietnam in Iraq's management, the failure of Poverty legislation to the Good Society, the comparisons fell into place.

"Democrats want a big bloated program. They think, because they had electoral victories in 2004, that they can just run roughshod with their agenda. Well, John Edwards seems very power hungry to me, and with his failed management of Iraq, and failed management of just about everything else in his administration, he's going to go down in history as a vicious, failed President. We don't like to be blamed, we just want to fix the problem without costing American tax payers more money. If our concerns aren't met, there will be no Poverty legislation. It will fail."

On the judiciary, William Rehnquist died on October 3rd, 2005, after a struggle with thyroid cancer, and along with him, Justice O'Connor announced she would leave the court upon the confirmation of her successor. Democrats saw this as an opportunity to put two people forward to the Supreme Court to change the balance of the court. However, the proceedings were some of the most hostile and most partisan ever seen.

Associate Justice Eric Holder

The first nominated was Eric Holder for O'Connor's spot in the Court. Eric Holder was the deputy Attorney General under Bill Clinton, and was heavily criticized for his role as Attorney General. Holder struck some Democrats as a problem, due to his views on national security and the Patriot Act, and this allowed for a rare bipartisan coalition to form on both sides. Diane Feinstein voted with Lindsay Graham, but Ron Wyden voted with David Vitter, as more partisan Republicans rejected the pick as "packing the courts". The vote ended up an embarrassingly narrow 53-44, but Holder was confirmed.

Chief Justice Sonia Sotomayor

The other nominee was Sonia Sotomayor. Less controversial than Holder in terms of her judicial record, but more so in terms of her past. She was the beneficiary of affirmative action, causing many Republicans to say that she did not earn her position. Striking a nerve, she spoke out against these comments as a kind of racism, and after her hearing, not many were questioning her qualifications. She passed more easily - 63-32, but for a Supreme Court nominee, still very narrowly.

On foreign affairs, prisoners in Iraqi prisons were found to be tortured, beaten, and starved. After some progress in terms of getting the country together in the middle of July, and it seems the country is unraveling. More problems are arising, more bombings in the country are occurring, and more people are dying. The decision keeps coming to Edwards door: should we leave the chaotic mess in Iraq to save our own men, or should we continue to try to stabilize the region. Public opinion had continued to sour on the War, looking at it as another Vietnam situation. The Edwards people were still concerned over whether or not to leave with Halbrooke feeling like leaving is the right decision, and Cohen and Rudman still concerned over whether that's the right decision.

[Maxwell]

Senate/Governors Update

Senate Retirements
Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI)
Senator Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)
Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)
Senator Mark Dayton (D-MN)
Senator Jim Jeffords (I-VT)

Open Senate Polling
Hawaii - 48% Lingle, 43% Case/47% Lingle, 41% Abercrombie
Maryland - 46% Cardin, 45% Steele
Massachusetts - 46% Capuano, 39% Weld
Minnesota - 45% Klobuchar, 42% Kennedy
Vermont - 44% Sanders, 43% Douglas

The beginning of the electoral season has proven to be a strong recruiting cycle for Republicans. With the retirement of popular Senator Daniel Akaka, One term Republican Governor Linda Lingle has announced her candidacy for Senate, and at the right time too, her popularity puts her in the top tier of Governors in the nation. she leads Democratic primary challengers Congressman Ed Case and Congressman Neil Abercrombie by 5 and 6 points. In other states, Republlican recruits are competitive or near competitive (Former Governor Bill Weld trails by 7, but that makes him far more competitive than many of the last nominees for Ted Kennedy's seat. This cycle is proving to be toxic for Democrats.

Vulnerable Seats
Arizona - 44% Kyl, 42% Gordon
Florida - 45% Nelson, 44% Martinez
Michigan - 47% Stabenow, 43% Cox
New Jersey - 45% Kean, 38% Menendez
Pennsylvania - 46% Santorum, 44% Knoll
Rhode Island - 51% Chafee, 41% Whitehouse/ 46% Whitehouse, 36% Laffey
Tennessee - 47% Frist, 41% Ford/ 45% Bryant, 42% Ford
Washington - 48% Cantwell, 43% Rossi

With that being said, there are pick-up oppurtunties for Democrats: Even though democrats dislike Lieutenant Governor Knoll, Rick Santorum proves to be one of the least popular Senators in the country. Even Mike DeWine and Jim Talent, other relatively unpopular Republicans, have drawn meek opposition (DeWine leads Sherrod Brown by 10 points, Talent leads Nancy Farmer by 8 points, a strong margin for Missouri). The most unpopular Senator, Jon Kyl with a lowly 36% Approval rating, has remained content to fight for his re-election, maneuvering his way out of a Republican primary and battling Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon for the political fight of his life.

Republican primaries are also proving to play a pivotal role in the control of the Senate: Senator Bill Frist faces a strong primary challenge from Former Congressman Ed Bryant, and if he loses, Congressman Harold Ford faces an easier set of stairs to climb. Even more so in Rhode Island, where Lincoln Chafee leads Sheldon Whitehouse by 10 points, and Steve Laffey loses by that same 10 point margin to Whitehouse.

Vulnerable Governors
Arizona - 44% Napolitano, 41% Salmon
Illinois - 45% Topinka, 37% Blagojevich, 5% Whitney
Iowa - 48% Nussle, 38% Pederson
Kansas - 47% Brownback, 43% Sebelius
Maryland - 46% Ehrlich, 44% O'Malley
Michigan - 45% Camp, 41% Granholm
New York - 46% Pataki, 42% Spitzer
Oklahoma - 46% Henry, 45% Fallin
Pennsylvania - 47% Rendell, 42% Meehan
Texas - 32% Perry, 22% Strayhorn, 21% Bell, 14% Friedman
Wisconsin - 45% Green, 40% Doyle

Democrats have a lot of Gubernatorial seats to fear losing. Incumbents are falling hard, particularly in states with strong Republican recruits. Only Maryland, where Bob Ehrlich faces the Maryland electorate, and New York, where Pataki faces the same, do Republicans look like they will have a hard time re-electing their Governor.

Gubernatorial Retirements
Ted Kulongoski (D-OR)
Bob Taft (R-OH)
Kenny Guinn (R-NV)
Linda Lingle (R-HI) [Running for Senate]
Jim Douglas (R-VT) [Running for Senate]
Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Jim Risch (R-ID)
Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Bill Owens (R-CO)
Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Frank Murkowski (R-AK)

Competitive Retirement Races
Oregon - 47% Saxton, 43% Hill
Ohio - 46% Strickland, 38% Petro
Nevada - 48% Gibson, 37% Titus
Hawaii - 47% Hanabusa, 45% Aiona
Vermont - 46% Markowitz, 42% Dubie
Massachussets - 45% Patrick, 43% Brown
Colorado - 46% Beauprez, 42% Ritter
Arkansas - 43% Beebe, 43% Hutchinson

The plus, however, is a lot of Republicans are retiring, leaving oppurtunties for Democratic pick-ups. The hottest races are in states were liberal Republicans are running for Senate: State Senate Majority Leader Colleen Hanabusa leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona narrowly for Governor, as does Deborah Markowitz over Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. Out of nowhere State Senator Scott Brown has come to a shocking close margin already to U.S. Attorney Deval Patrick.

Kulongonski is the only outright Democratic Party retirement, and that's because his approval ratings are in the dumps and he would trail his primary opponent, Jim Hill, by a 10 point margin (44-34). Same happened with Frank Murkowski, but small town mayor Sarah Palin leads Mark Begich by a substantial margin.

[Maxwell]

Cannon-Bowles Entitlement Reform Package introduced

On February 22nd of 2006, Senator Chris Cannon (R-UT) and Senator Erskine Bowles (D-NC) put forward a bipartisan plan to reform Social Security and Medicare. The plan has members of both parties fuming: the plan raises the retirement age to 68, changes some elements that ultimately cuts benefits, and keeps Social Security solvent for another 30 years. Most Republicans critique the plan as not going far enough, while Democrats see it as an attack on Social Security. However, many Republicans and Democrats who are against it at the moment are saying that they would be willing to come to the table and negiotiate to find a better solution and amend the bill.

Co-Sponsors include Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR), Brad Carson (D-OK), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Evan Bayh (D-IN) , John Warner (R-VA), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Kit Bond (R-MO), Chuck Hagel (R-NE).

Poverty has continued to stall, with Republicans continuing to budge and Democrats such as Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, and Evan Bayh still holding back on the bill. However, one notable Republican hopped on board: Senator John Warner of Virginia. After conceding on a couple of provision, the aging Republican Senator kept his word and came on to support the legislation. In a televised statement, he said -

"This has been a far longer process than I think most would imagine would be ideal. However, over the course of this debate, I have come over to the idea of this bill, and I have no choice but to go on my word and endorse this legislation. Poverty is a serious problem in this country, and we, in congress, have to do our part to fight it, and this legislation has ceded to a realistic middle ground that won't bust the budget to do so."

Naturally, Senator Warner has earned the spite of his fellow Republicans, with some in leadership threatening to take away his positions on all of his committees. Warner announced at that time he would not be running for re-election, so this may be the last straw of whether he resigns before his term ends, or if he just finishes out his term.

Scandal: Hundreds of Millions in agriculture subsidies have been going to dead farmers!



"Under the Bush administration, the agriculture program had opened up a few loopholes that had exploited then, and since those numbers have exploded, that has become a massive problem where money from the department has sunk into people who aren't alive. I will take some of the blame myself, but this is a problem of efficiency, and we are thinking of a solution to this."

On March 1st, 2006, scandal hit the Agriculture Department, after a discovery that hundreds of millions of Agriculture subsidies have been given to dead farmers. The programs ineffeciency is being hit hard by Republicans and Democrats, with Agriculture based Senators Chuck Grassley, Tom Harkin, Brad Carson, and Jim Inhofe calling for Secretary Vilsack's resignation. Vilsack's office has reported that they will be working hard to fix the loophole, but some sources on the hill are saying that after the introduction of reform to the program, Vilsack will be leaving the administration.

Some are saying this scandal goes deeper, but at this moment, no evidence of that has arisen.

President Edwards Approval (Mar. 2006):
38% Approve
58% Disapprove

With the agriculture department debacle, a stalling economy, and a unwillingness to back a lot of bills that reach his desk, President Edwards has had a bad first year in office. Foreign policy is where things have seemingly gone better, but the terror situation has not gotten significantly better, and more and more Americans are becoming testy on Iraq. Only 28% of Americans say we should stay in Iraq, with the significant change being a massive drop in Republican support. Senators Chuck Hagel and John Warner introduced legislation that would get troops out of Iraq within the next year, which was endorsed by several more liberal Democrats and some moderate Republicans. However, the bill failed to reach post-filibuster range, and was rejected.

The administrations combination of populist domestic policy and third way foreign policy, while on the outskirts what got him elected and seemingly popular, has thus far proven to be hindrance, with his rejection of a lot of bills causing grief among all sides. Indeed, it's time for a change of heart, before its too late.