European Union Expansion by 2030

[Sam Spade]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

[Sam Spade]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on expansion in the Union itself?

From an economic common sense standpoint; yes.  However, I think that the political will for a United Europe is too strong for little things like economic sense to stand in the way.  That all changes, of course, if Greece defaults.

Greece will default, technically (they may term it restructuring or whatever, but it will be "default" for the language on the debt).  It is a guarantee, and since there are few guarantees in this world, it should not be ignored.  And it will occur before 2020 (long before).  Portugal, Spain, Ireland and (probably) Italy are on the same path, but none as quick as Greece.

With that in mind, I ask the same question again.

[Sam Spade]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

I doubt the ECB will let themselves lose face by allowing any Eurozone members to officially drop out of the zone. But look the other way as some countries introduce unofficial units of account (leaving the Eurozone by stealth) in order to speed up the internal devaluation they need, perhaps.

That will be viewed as default by the credit markets.