blacknwhiterose
Rookie
Posts: 93
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« on: December 05, 2016, 01:38:45 AM » |
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Depends how the Democratic Party platform evolves from here. If they go in the activist/leftist/socialist direction of many Bernie supporters, I think the Industrial Belt will continue to trend Republican, actually quite hard Republican if Trump does an even half-way decent job with the economy. If they double down on the Clinton/Obama/Reid neoliberalism while pandering to various leftist/activist/diversity causes, I also think Republicans will continue to make gains here. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are full of middle/working class people who vote on the "kitchen table" issues. Common-sense people who, while not particularly religious/moralist, are a long ways from being as pozzed as many voters on the coasts. Bernie's plans to renegotiate trade policies may have stolen some of Trump's thunder in this region, however the highly confrontational identity politics and various diversity/SJW nonsense of many of his followers repels this demographic. Bernie Sanders actually did make economic fairness the central message of his campaign, but reigning in some of his most vile young supporters is another thing. A reformed Democratic platform that focuses on common-sense center-left economic policies as a common denominator while taking some of the confrontation identity political stuff off the table could certainly keep this region well in play for Democrats.
As for the Sunbelt, I'm not as familiar with the region, but I doubt there's enough suburban soccer moms to turn these states Blue. The hispanic vote projections are over-baked, best-case-scenario, assuming immigration rates stay (or go back to?) where they were a decade ago, and new hispanic voters vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Neither of these have proven to be true. Legal and Illegal immigration from Latin America is in decline, and studies show that as hispanics assimilate into America (e.g. English becomes first language in family household), they become much more open to voting Republican.
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