DRA stuff

[Dr. MB]

2-2 Mississippi (Extreme)

1st District (Blue): 49.9% Black, 45.8% White, 2.3% Hispanic, D+1.54
2nd District (Green): 51.1% Black, 45.3% White, 2.2% Hispanic, D+5.48
3rd District (Purple): 73.7% White, 21.2% Black, 2.7% Hispanic, R+22.56
4th District (Red): 71.1% White, 21.8% Black, 3.8% Hispanic, R+22.13

[Dr. MB]

Democratic gerrymander in Oklahoma

52% White, 19.3% Black, 17.0% Hispanic, 4.3% Native, 2.4% Asian, 5% Other
53.5–46.5% Obama, average 58.9% D
2012/2016 D+2.37

[Dr. MB]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

[Dr. MB]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

Is it really a good idea splitting Lane, Douglas and Jackson counties?

It fit the best and I'd prefer to have them all in one district, but it was either that or making OR-02 go into Gresham, so I chose the second option. For most of it outside of Jackson, it's really just the far eastern areas of the county.

[Dr. MB]

Also I redrew my state's Senate districts.

(Portland highlight)

(Willamette Valley highlight)


District 1 (Northwest Oregon Blue): 88.4% White, 54.6% Obama, R+1.30
District 2 (Hillsboro-Forest Grove Green): 63.2% White, 56.7% Obama, D+5.93
District 3 (Rockcreek-Cedar Mill Purple): 68.9% White, 65.3% Obama, D+16.52
District 4 (Aloha-Beaverton Red): 66.8% White, 62.6% Obama, D+13.16
District 5 (Tigard-Sherwood Yellow): 76.9% White, 58.3% Obama, D+7.97
District 6 (SW Portland Green): 82.8% White, 79.7% Obama, D+30.38
District 7 (North Portland Gray): 68.6% White, 87.5% Obama, D+39.29
District 8 (NE Portland Purple): 66.8% White, 75.7% Obama, D+28.21
District 9 (SE Portland Light Blue): 79.3% White, 84.5% Obama, D+37.07
District 10 (SE Portland Pink): 62.8% White, 63.9% Obama, D+14.28
District 11 (East Multnomah Green): 76.0% White, 54.3% Obama, R+0.40
District 12 (West Clackamas Blue): 87.1% White, 56.4% Obama, D+4.44
District 13 (North Clackamas Peach): 80.0% White, 58.9% Obama, D+7.04
District 14 (Clackamas/Marion/Linn Brown): 86.5% White, 53.9% McCain, R+13.39
District 15 (Yamhill/Tillamook Orange): 80.4% White, 50.2% McCain, R+6.66
District 16 (Woodburn-Silverton Green): 67.1% White, 52.3% McCain, R+8.00
District 17 (Salem Purple): 63.2% White, 57.5% Obama, D+5.6
District 18 (Monmouth-Albany Yellow): 82.3% White, 49.3% Obama, R+4.69
District 19 (Central Coast Beige): 86.7% White, 53.1% Obama, R+2.11
District 20 (Corvallis-Lebanon Pink): 84.2% White, 59.2% Obama, D+8.12
District 21 (Junction City Maroon): 85.8% White, 55.1% Obama, D+0.79
District 22 (Eugene White): 81.5% White, 76.0% Obama, D+25.56
District 23 (Lane-Douglas Blue): 88.1% White, 49.4% McCain, R+7.17
District 24 (Southwest Oregon Purple): 89.1% White, 56.8% McCain, R+16.96
District 25 (Grants Pass Pink): 87.8% White, 57.6% McCain, R+16.24
District 26 (Medford-Ashland Gray): 81.3% White, 54.9% Obama, D+1.76
District 27 (Southern Oregon Green): 85.4% White, 63.3% McCain, R+21.84
District 28 (Bend-Redmond Pink): 87.5% White, 50.4% Obama, R+2.49
District 29 (North Central Oregon Purple): 68.5% White, 50.2% McCain, R+7.86
District 30 (Eastern Oregon Pink): 80.3% White, 63.8% McCain, R+22.34

Final composition: As-Is 16 D, 14 R
Best R scenario (all R+D<5) 17 R, 13 D
Best D scenario (all D+R<5) 20 D, 10 R

[Dr. MB]

An ungerrymandered Oregon legislative district map really should not give Republicans that good of a chance to take a majority.

I agree that I messed up a bit. I tried to draw them better than they are now but it's not perfect.

[Dr. MB]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

Since there are 6 CDs, is this a potential plan for 2020? If so, are you using new population estimates or the old 2010 population numbers on DRA?

Yeah, it's potential plan but I am using 2010 data

[Dr. MB]

Ungerrymandered Maryland

District 1: 77.8% White, 14.5% Black, 3.7% Hispanic, 1.8% Asian
57.0% McCain, 41.4% Obama
R+11.8

District 2: 61.2% White, 27.2% Black, 4.9% Asian, 4.2% Hispanic
58.0% Obama, 40.4% McCain
D+9.1

District 3: 43.8% White, 29.0% Black, 13.3% Hispanic, 10.3% Asian
70.6% Obama, 28.2% McCain
D+23.3

District 4: 65.9% Black, 15.5% Hispanic, 12.6% White, 3.6% Asian
91.2% Obama, 8.3% McCain
D+41.3

District 5: 70.5% White, 19.6% Black, 4.6% Hispanic, 2.4% Asian
50.5% Obama, 48.2% McCain
EVEN

District 6: 83.3% White, 6.8% Black, 4.2% Hispanic, 3.6% Asian
56.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama
R+11.5

District 7: 56.4% Black, 34.2% White, 4.4% Hispanic, 2.8% Asian
81.2% Obama, 17.6% McCain
D+31.3

District 8: 54.2% White, 15.4% Hispanic, 14.9% Asian, 12.4% Black
69.2% Obama, 29.7% McCain
D+22.0

This gives 5 safe D districts, 2 safe R districts, and one swing district.

[Dr. MB]

Utah new

District 1 (Blue): R+26.4
District 2 (Green): D+4.6
District 3 (Purple): R+25.5
District 4 (Red): R+33.5

I wanted to create a single district out of the rural areas of the state, which are currently divided between all 4, and gerrymandered to favor the Republicans. I also created a D-leaning district out of Salt Lake, Davis, and Summit counties.

This would also put Reps. Rob Bishop and Chris Stewart in a primary against each other for the new 1st district. Mia Love would be able to run in the 4th, and John Curtis in the 3rd. The 2nd wouldn't have an incumbent.

[Dr. MB]

Ungerrymandered South Carolina

1st District (Blue): 48.5% Obama, 50.2% McCain
2nd District (Green): 36.8% Obama, 62.0% McCain
3rd District (Purple): 32.9% Obama, 65.3% McCain
4th District (Red): 39.6% Obama, 59.0% McCain
5th District (Yellow): 56.7% Obama, 42.3% McCain
6th District (Turquoise): 51.7% Obama, 47.3% McCain
7th District (Gray): 47.4% Obama, 51.5% McCain

In practice, we have 3 solid R districts, 1 solid D district, and 3 swing districts. Certainly better than the current situation.

Under the new districts here would be the incumbents:
1st District: Mark Sanford
2nd District: Joe Wilson, Jeff Duncan
3rd District: Trey Gowdy
4th District: Ralph Norman
5th District: Jim Clyburn
6th District: No incumbent
7th District: Tom Rice

[Dr. MB]

Utah new

District 1 (Blue): R+26.4
District 2 (Green): D+4.6
District 3 (Purple): R+25.5
District 4 (Red): R+33.5

I wanted to create a single district out of the rural areas of the state, which are currently divided between all 4, and gerrymandered to favor the Republicans. I also created a D-leaning district out of Salt Lake, Davis, and Summit counties.

This would also put Reps. Rob Bishop and Chris Stewart in a primary against each other for the new 1st district. Mia Love would be able to run in the 4th, and John Curtis in the 3rd. The 2nd wouldn't have an incumbent.

Is the Summit part of 4 connected to the rest of the CD? It's certainly contiguous, but it would be unfortunate if they were only contiguous over a mountain range with no passes there. Box Elder has a similar problem in that there's nothing but dirt trails to connect it with Tooele to the south.

Yeah, there's interstate 80.

[Dr. MB]

Utah new

District 1 (Blue): R+26.4
District 2 (Green): D+4.6
District 3 (Purple): R+25.5
District 4 (Red): R+33.5

I wanted to create a single district out of the rural areas of the state, which are currently divided between all 4, and gerrymandered to favor the Republicans. I also created a D-leaning district out of Salt Lake, Davis, and Summit counties.

This would also put Reps. Rob Bishop and Chris Stewart in a primary against each other for the new 1st district. Mia Love would be able to run in the 4th, and John Curtis in the 3rd. The 2nd wouldn't have an incumbent.

Is the Summit part of 4 connected to the rest of the CD? It's certainly contiguous, but it would be unfortunate if they were only contiguous over a mountain range with no passes there. Box Elder has a similar problem in that there's nothing but dirt trails to connect it with Tooele to the south.

Yeah, there's interstate 80.

I mean it looks like you can't drive to the I-80 part of CD 4 in Summit county without driving through CD 2. Some states require that it is convenient to get to all parts of a district without going through other districts. It's a good neutral redistricting principal that can cut down on certain types of gerrymanders.

Oh, for some reason I thought you meant CD2. Well, you can take State Road 32, which barely goes through CD2 for some parts.

[Dr. MB]

Here's a new Tennessee

District 1 (Blue): R+28.2, current R+28
District 2 (Green): R+19.1, current R+20
District 3 (Purple): R+19.3, current R+18
District 4 (Red): R+24.0, current R+20
District 5 (Yellow): D+4.5, current D+7
District 6 (Turquoise): R+20.5, current R+24
District 7 (Gray): R+20.5, current R+20
District 8 (Light Purple): R+16.2, current R+19
District 9 (Light Blue): D+22.4, current D+28

[Dr. MB]

A practically even Virginia with hardly any gerrymandering

District 1: R+6.2
District 2: D+12.8
District 3: EVEN (R+0.2)
District 4: D+10.5
District 5: R+13.1
District 6: R+13.0
District 7: R+2.9
District 8: D+21.3
District 9: R+19.9
District 10: D+8.0
District 11: D+8.6

[Dr. MB]

District 1: D+4
District 2: D+2
District 3: R+9
District 4: D+13
District 5: R+20
District 6: D+12
District 7: R+11
District 8: R+12
District 9: R+13
District 10: R+17
District 11: R+9
District 12: D+18
District 13: D+2

[Dr. MB]

District 1 (Green): R+1
District 2 (Blue): D+1

[Dr. MB]

Map of Kansas with 2 swing districts (I tried to do 2 D districts but it was impossible).

District 1 (White): R+26
District 2 (Purple): R+21
District 3 (Green): R+3
District 4 (Blue): D+1

[Dr. MB]

A majority-minority district in Washington

D+23
White 43%
Black 14%
Hispanic 16%
Asian 21%
Native 1%
Other 5%

[Dr. MB]

I don't think it's possible to get a maj-min district in Oregon at the district level but I managed one that's 60% white.

[Dr. MB]

And finally, Nevada

Blue district – D+7
48% White, 9% Black, 26% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 4% Other

Green district – D+20
29% White, 15% Black, 46% Hispanic, 6.5% Asian, 3% Other

[Dr. MB]

Majority-minority district in Connecticut
41% White
24% Black
28% Hispanic
4% Asian
3% Other

75% Obama, 24% McCain

[Dr. MB]

Majority-minority district in Massachusetts
37% White
26% Black
24% Hispanic
7% Asian
6% Other

D+30

[Dr. MB]

I've somehow managed to create a majority-minority district in Minnesota (barely).

49.9% White
21% Black
12.4% Hispanic
11.8% Asian
1.3% Native
3.7% Other
D+27.28

[Dr. MB]

Majority-minority district in Wisconsin

39% White
37% Black
18% Hispanic
3% Asian
0.5% Native
2.5% Other

D+26

[Dr. MB]

Updated map

Are they going to get the other states soon?

I was just checking this today, and then saw your post. Since this map was created, NY, FL, and IL have had data added to then. CA at the time of this maps creation only had 12/16 data for it's useless voting districts data (the version with 200,000 pop tracts that is not used by anyone but the census) and now has 12/16 data for the block groups (the one with 2008 data, and with actual precincts).

It is quite possible we never get the at-large states, or get them all last, since the congressional PVIs are the same in their cases as the well known state PVIs.

Ugh, I hope all the states get data.  Sometimes, it is fun to mess around with seeing what would happen if states had more seats than they actually did.

Exactly what I was doing. I wanted to know if Montana got a second district (which could soon happen), would both be red? I think the western part of the state including Missoula would probably just lean red while the eastern district would be as red as it gets.

The western one would be Lean R (but I think Quist would've won it). The eastern one would be R+15 or more.