2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Andddd Rasmussen back to R+7 in the GCB lol

2 weeks ago: R+1
1 week ago: R+4
this week: R+7

momentum!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580931653135785985

[Devils30]

Washington Post-Ipsos poll of Latino voters finds D+27 on the GCB, 63-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/14/hispanic-voters-democrats/

Also says Dems have huge leads in Midwest, West, and Northeast, but only up by 9 in the South. Bolds well for Kelly and Masto, then.

That is not good news for RGV Dems though. Also that overall number I believe is basically the 2020 result with Hispanics

Cuellar is far better than generic D and TX-34 is too Dem to work for the GOP. Ironically they might have created a GOP pack in TX-15 instead of giving their side 2 winnable seats. TX-28's rural trends might ironically be offset by population gains and Dem trends in Bexar. GOP might regret that arm into the city of San Antonio.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1580916904725999616

[Person Man]

Andddd Rasmussen back to R+7 in the GCB lol

2 weeks ago: R+1
1 week ago: R+4
this week: R+7

momentum!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580931653135785985

They had Rs leading in their last poll in 18

[swf541]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/us/politics/midterm-republican-ad-spending.html?auth=login-google

Very interesting article, the ad rate disparity is much worse for the GOP then I anticipated, very much worth a read

[Young Conservative]

Andddd Rasmussen back to R+7 in the GCB lol

2 weeks ago: R+1
1 week ago: R+4
this week: R+7

momentum!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580931653135785985

Slay

[Devils30]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/us/politics/midterm-republican-ad-spending.html?auth=login-google

Very interesting article, the ad rate disparity is much worse for the GOP then I anticipated, very much worth a read

The Dem candidates even in these seats like CA-27, 45, NM-2 do have money. These seats are not a Mastriano situation where there is a 35:1 disparity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the GCB except Rassy have the Ds ahead and the state by state numbers prove that Ds are ahead Users are so anxious over results early voting is underway we just have to be patient

We are nowhere near where we were in Summer of 2022 when Gas Orices all over and we were behind in most of the state by state polls

Also we have a chance to get 52 plus seats in Sen WI, PA, OH, NC, UT and then IA, IN and especially SD and we must be mindful of FL, DEMINGS have enough cash not Crist to save herself that doesn't need outside help

Big Village had it 51/45 D and Morning Consult had it 48/44 D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Andddd Rasmussen back to R+7 in the GCB lol

2 weeks ago: R+1
1 week ago: R+4
this week: R+7

momentum!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580931653135785985

Slay

Where are the polls showing Oz and Mastriano plus 8 Corbett was up 10 on Ontario in 2010 and so was Synder on our D GOV candidates in MI and Walker won easily the Rs we're plus 6 on GCB in 2010)14 and they won WI MI and PA Gov, but all our 2010 candidates for in 2010 we're weak

[Brittain33]

Washington Post-Ipsos poll of Latino voters finds D+27 on the GCB, 63-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/14/hispanic-voters-democrats/

Also says Dems have huge leads in Midwest, West, and Northeast, but only up by 9 in the South. Bolds well for Kelly and Masto, then.

That is not good news for RGV Dems though. Also that overall number I believe is basically the 2020 result with Hispanics

RGV Dems are struggling for sure but there are far more Caribbean Hispanics in that southern US total than Mexican-Americans in the RGV.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/us/politics/midterm-republican-ad-spending.html?auth=login-google

Very interesting article, the ad rate disparity is much worse for the GOP then I anticipated, very much worth a read

Yeah, the thing to remember through all of this is that GOP outside groups are being forced to spend double what Dems are because most of the GOP candidates are terrible at fundraising.

[new_patomic]

From Labor Day through early this week, Senate Republican super PACs and campaigns spent more than their opponents on the airwaves in key races in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and New Hampshire, according to data from the media-tracking firm AdImpact. But when measured in rating points — a metric of how many people saw the ads — the Democratic ads were seen more times in each of those states, according to two Democratic officials tracking media purchases.

In other words, Democrats got more for less.

You love to see it.

[Person Man]

From Labor Day through early this week, Senate Republican super PACs and campaigns spent more than their opponents on the airwaves in key races in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and New Hampshire, according to data from the media-tracking firm AdImpact. But when measured in rating points — a metric of how many people saw the ads — the Democratic ads were seen more times in each of those states, according to two Democratic officials tracking media purchases.

In other words, Democrats got more for less.

You love to see it.

Penny wise.  Dollar foolish.

[Lief 🗽]

lol

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1581008620094775298

[wbrocks67]

Harvard-Harris - which has overturning Roe v Wade at 50/50 approval and Trump's fav at 47/47, has the GCB tied, 50/50

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-october-3/

[Person Man]

Harvard-Harris - which has overturning Roe v Wade at 50/50 approval and Trump's fav at 47/47, has the GCB tied, 50/50

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-october-3/

So that’s probably the cap on Republican efforts. They were 51/49 D earlier.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are users obsessed with polling this close to Eday, just relax it's the weekend we are all voting, it's anxiety, it's a 303 map anyways Sisolak, GRISHAM, Kotek, Evers, Whitmer and Shapiro are winning and CCM, Hassan, Fetterman, Warnock, Barnes and McMullin are gonna give us 53/47 we don't need OH, FL or NC because McMullin will be offered a chairmanship by Schumer if he caucus with us and locking the Rs out the S for 24 with OH, WV and MT and if Gwen Graham runs in 24 Scott is DOA and Collins is DOA on 26

It's not news that McMullin is gonna give Ds 53/47 Senate because why would he caucus with Rs if they are the minority he called Rs on MSNBC MAGA Anyways SO WE DINT JEED OH, NC OR FL BUT DO WE Have A SHOT AT OH, NC YES WE DO AND Obama not Biden is coming into WI to campaign for Barnes on Halloween

[Gracile]

RRH Elections is raising money to poll three House races (which districts TBD):

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2022/10/14/weekend-open-thread-for-october-14-16-2022/

I would be quite interested in seeing these given how few non-internal House polls we have gotten, and they had a good track record this cycle based on the two special elections they polled (their TX-34 poll was right on the money, and their NM-01 result wasn't that far outside the margin of error in addition to nailing the GOP candidate's vote share).

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see Dems are in good shape in PA-17.

DeLuzio outraised Shaffer by double in Q3 - $1.46M to $720K

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1581358010718224384

These #s for PA-06 are also painful for the GOP

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1581272551611072513

[It’s so Joever]

Glad to see Dems are in good shape in PA-17.

DeLuzio outraised Shaffer by double in Q3 - $1.46M to $720K

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1581358010718224384

These #s for PA-06 are also painful for the GOP

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1581272551611072513

Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

[President Johnson]

Glad to see Dems are in good shape in PA-17.

DeLuzio outraised Shaffer by double in Q3 - $1.46M to $720K

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1581358010718224384

These #s for PA-06 are also painful for the GOP

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1581272551611072513

Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

On Atlas, many fellow bloggers think:

Democrats outraising Republicans: Fundraising means nothing, candidates with smaller warchests often win as well

Republicans outraising Democrats: These fundraising numbers clearly indicate Democrats are headed for a major defeat

[wbrocks67]

Wow. And some of this may have even been Scheller self-funding.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1581383012423372800

[Ferguson97]

Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

POV: you know nothing about campaign finance

[ꙮ]

Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

On Atlas, many fellow bloggers think:

Democrats outraising Republicans: Fundraising means nothing, candidates with smaller warchests often win as well

Republicans outraising Democrats: These fundraising numbers clearly indicate Democrats are headed for a major defeat

Pairs well with the Atlas guide to polling:

D+10 or more: This poll is ridiculous, clearly wrong, and shouldn’t be taken as indicative of anything
D+6 to D+9: When you consider the massive Democrat bias in polling, this is only indicative of the fact that the race is competitive. Tossup
D+2 to D+5: Bad poll for Democrats, if you apply the 2020 polling error this is a clear Republican lead. Tilt R, maybe Lean R.
EVEN to D+1: Polling error and undecideds mean that this race will not be close in the end, Lean R.
R+3 to R+1: If even <Pollster> is showing the Dems behind, this race is over. Likely R.
R+9 to R+4: Nothing to see here. Safe R.
R+10 or more: This poll is gospel. Safe R. The Republicans are going to win in a landslide, 55 Senate seats and 250 House seats are not out of the question.

[Aurelius]

Is this the thread for us to post our individual House predictions in? If not, is there such a thread?