Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Kalimantan]

Nate Silver's opinions on the different tracking polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html

Interesting read

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/22
Obama 47% (nc)
McCain 42% (+1)

GWBattleground - 10/22
Obama 49% (+1)
McCain 47% (nc)

[Lief 🗽]

DailyKos/Research2000:
Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

The last three days were Obama +8 Sun, +9 Mon and +12 Tues.

Dems also hold a 49-34 lead in the generic Congressional ballot and McCain's net favorables are at an all time low of -10.

[TheGlobalizer]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 22:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans. Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans. McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604

Zogby should just give up the pretense and start writing fiction novels.

[Rowan]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.7%(-1.2)
McCain 42.0%(+1.1)

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.7%(-1.2)
McCain 42.0%(+1.1)

The sample that dropped off today looked like a bit of an outlier, imho.

[TheGlobalizer]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.7%(-1.2)
McCain 42.0%(+1.1)

The sample that dropped off today looked like a bit of an outlier, imho.

Yeah, this poll was buried by that one sample.

[J. J.]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 22:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans. Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans. McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604

Zogby should just give up the pretense and start writing fiction novels.

Why?  Kos has the market for that sown up.

[TheGlobalizer]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 22:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans. Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans. McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604

Zogby should just give up the pretense and start writing fiction novels.

Why?  Kos has the market for that sown up.

I thought you'd be a fan of some free-market competition...

[J. J.]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 22:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans. Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans. McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604

Zogby should just give up the pretense and start writing fiction novels.

Why?  Kos has the market for that sown up.

I thought you'd be a fan of some free-market competition...

Yes, but Kos has the monopoly on BS.

[André]

ABC / Washington Post tracking poll

likely voters:

Obama: 54 % (+1)

McCain: 43 % (-1)

[freedomburns]

ABC / Washington Post tracking poll

likely voters:

Obama: 54 % (+1)

McCain: 43 % (-1)

Looks good.  It is undeniable at this point.  There can be no doubt that the race is widening.  Obama looks like he is on his way to a big landslide.

[J. J.]

ABC / Washington Post tracking poll

likely voters:

Obama: 54 % (+1)

McCain: 43 % (-1)

Looks good.  It is undeniable at this point.  There can be no doubt that the race is widening.  Obama looks like he is on his way to a big landslide.

I would be looking at one poll, especially that one.  Today, surprisingly, the results have been mixed.

[Sam Spade]

I have a rumor that Zogby will show Obama's lead increasing tomorrow (don't know by how much or anything)...

[Reds4]

Zogby says:

Obama 52.2% McCain 40.3%


I think Obama may have some momentum, but zogby's numbers are certainly looking nutty.

[Tender Branson]

Zogby says:

Obama 52.2% McCain 40.3%


I think Obama may have some momentum, but zogby's numbers are certainly looking nutty.

Hmm. Zogby must be taking something. Obama leads by almost 30 with Independents ?

[J. J.]

Zogby says:

Obama 52.2% McCain 40.3%


I think Obama may have some momentum, but zogby's numbers are certainly looking nutty.

Hmm. Zogby must be taking something. Obama leads by almost 30 with Independents ?

It's Zogby!

[Verily]

ABC / Washington Post tracking poll

likely voters:

Obama: 54 % (+1)

McCain: 43 % (-1)

Looks good.  It is undeniable at this point.  There can be no doubt that the race is widening.  Obama looks like he is on his way to a big landslide.

I would be looking at one poll, especially that one.  Today, surprisingly, the results have been mixed.

ABC/WaPo is a good poll, easily the best of the news organization polls. I wouldn't consider it over Rasmussen or Gallup, but probably over pretty much everything else. Of course, you're certainly right that one poll does not a trend make, but the numbers overall have suggested that the McCain "comeback" was the polling fluke, not Obama's peak numbers. Of course, I don't expect Obama to improve past his peak lead of ~8 points, and to end slightly less than that ahead on Election Day (~6 points), but it will very obvious who will win come Nov. 4 unless some unforeseen Happening happens.

[J. J.]

ABC / Washington Post tracking poll

likely voters:

Obama: 54 % (+1)

McCain: 43 % (-1)

Looks good.  It is undeniable at this point.  There can be no doubt that the race is widening.  Obama looks like he is on his way to a big landslide.

I would be looking at one poll, especially that one.  Today, surprisingly, the results have been mixed.

ABC/WaPo is a good poll, easily the best of the news organization polls. I wouldn't consider it over Rasmussen or Gallup, but probably over pretty much everything else. Of course, you're certainly right that one poll does not a trend make, but the numbers overall have suggested that the McCain "comeback" was the polling fluke, not Obama's peak numbers. Of course, I don't expect Obama to improve past his peak lead of ~8 points, and to end slightly less than that ahead on Election Day (~6 points), but it will very obvious who will win come Nov. 4 unless some unforeseen Happening happens.

We've actually had mixed results today.  If Rasmussen hadn't jumped, I'd say it was McCain's day.

This one isn't a good poll, and will probably be ignored by Freedumbburnout if it shifts back.

[Sam Spade]

ABC / Washington Post tracking poll

likely voters:

Obama: 54 % (+1)

McCain: 43 % (-1)

Looks good.  It is undeniable at this point.  There can be no doubt that the race is widening.  Obama looks like he is on his way to a big landslide.

I would be looking at one poll, especially that one.  Today, surprisingly, the results have been mixed.

ABC/WaPo is a good poll, easily the best of the news organization polls. I wouldn't consider it over Rasmussen or Gallup, but probably over pretty much everything else. Of course, you're certainly right that one poll does not a trend make, but the numbers overall have suggested that the McCain "comeback" was the polling fluke, not Obama's peak numbers. Of course, I don't expect Obama to improve past his peak lead of ~8 points, and to end slightly less than that ahead on Election Day (~6 points), but it will very obvious who will win come Nov. 4 unless some unforeseen Happening happens.

ABC/WP is ok, but a weird methodology.

[Sam Spade]

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

[cinyc]

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

Zogby "polling" to make news headlines?  Who would have thunk that?

[Lunar]

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

I think the odds are 9:1 that Zogby shows McCain ahead one time in the next two weeks, so I'm not sure if you'd be getting your money's worth

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/23
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 43% (+1)

GWBattleground - 10/23
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (-2)

[TheGlobalizer]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/23
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 43% (+1)

GWBattleground - 10/23
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (-2)

This is where I see the race today.  Not commenting on the internals, just the topline.