Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[Oryxslayer]

Besides the competitive seats selected by NYT, the other open house seats will probably have competitive primaries on the left/right for who will rep them in the future. My sig has the exact seats, but they are 2, 3, 5, 6, and 27 on the right, and 16 on the left - including NYT's selected 21 and 29.

The congressional margins in 2, 6, and 21 are all worth keeping an eye on. As Cohn stated, these are open seats where enthusiastic dems could push in a seat-warmer. They are also suburban seats where any dem gains in the generic ballot are likely to be reflected.

[Oryxslayer]

From DDHQ:

If that early vote holds, highly competitive race for the second runoff seat.

[Oryxslayer]

If anything, this is a sign that the fact Beto is from the remote El Paso is impacting is name rec.

[Oryxslayer]

Austin just drops 88% for Beto. So perhaps its not an advertising problem, but rather one that he isn't reaching the non-energized base?

[Oryxslayer]

Ortiz jones might avoid a runoff here in Tx-23 depending of if the 50%+ obtained in Bexar is matched in  El paso.

[Oryxslayer]

Based on what I'm seeing right now TX is Safe R for Senate.

Currently without Houston or South Texas, though admittedly without many R-Rurals Dems are only down 50K to Rs. Not bad.

[Oryxslayer]

Highly competitive race for both sides in TX 21 right now. Almost a perfect split on the dem side.

[Oryxslayer]

Lets try not to derail the thread here over Beto chat, keep it civil.

[Oryxslayer]

In the ever interesting TX-07, it is currently Fletcher in the lead followed by a close race for second.

[Oryxslayer]

Beto underperforming aside this is great primary #'s for dems

why?

More dem votes in the senate race the rep votes right now...

[Oryxslayer]

Beto underperforming aside this is great primary #'s for dems

why?

More dem votes in the senate race the rep votes right now...

Correction, bad math, dems only 50K behind Rs in senate votes. Not that bad for a state like texas, and without el paso done yet.

[Oryxslayer]

Seriously, Cruz is not even in fourth place there now.

A rural family has a bone to pick? Not many people there...

[Oryxslayer]

Hullings is doing terribly in 23rd

We have known this for a while, at one point Ortiz Jones was going to avoid a runoff. Now its just a tight race to see who has the honor of facing her later.

[Oryxslayer]

More interesting about TX-23 is how much the dems are crushing the reps in turnout...when the reps had a few more precincts reporting last I checked!

[Oryxslayer]

Did anyone else see the vote count for Travis county for both parties? wow,

Travis is quite literally Portland with more cowboy hats. Don't be surprised when it is ground 0 for the #resistance.

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I don't think the path to 218 runs through TX at all, I wouldn't be surprised if Dems took the House even if they net 0 seats out of TX. Dems need to go all out on CA, NY, PA.

TX-23 is basically a layup. Everyone else is favored by a bit but we've seen so many R seats be competitive in specials so far.

Dems probably need to net one seat from Texas to pierce 24/25, though the others will probably fall before dems net 35. A good case can be made for 7, 23, or 32 to be that single pickup.

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats could double their turnout from 2014, but there is no enthusiasm. HAHAHA!

Republicans are extremely talented at deluding themselves. Just look at how many of them sincerely believe that Trump cares about poor people, lol

The only delusion here is the fact that GOP percentages have been maintained from previous years  and the red avatars here haven't countered the fact with hard numbers.

Hard numbers, okay most of the rurals are in meanwhile only half of bexar, 1/4 of dallas, none of el paso or Houston...there are some areas against the grain like the noth Dallas suburbs are still out, and Austin is done. But its largely rurals in, with cities and south texas out.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean sometimes total primary votes matter, and sometimes they don't. What's more important is that Cruz is winning by so much while O'Rourke isn't - I understand that he is an incumbent and O'Rourke isn't, but 85%+ indicates that Cruz is very popular with the base still (and that there probably is not a huge contingent of Republicans who are going to vote for O'Rourke), while 'only' getting 60% means that O'Rourke still has a ways to go to unite the Dem base (particularly in the heavily hispanic areas along the border, where he is surprisingly losing right now).

Either way, the primary results certainly are not a huge indicator of anything other than what we knew already: Texas is a heavy, heavy lift for the Democrats. It's not impossible, but it's definitely Likely R.

I agree with most of this analysis expect one bit, it's pretty clear that the high Hispanic south literally are just voting for who has the most Hispanic name, especially if you check the other races.

[Oryxslayer]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

Clinton made gains in Texas mainly on the backs of whites.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm leaving this thread for now. When Krazen has false reasons to hop in a thread, it typically means one should walk away. I will return in a few hours when we hopefully have full returns and can have a legitimate discussion.

[Oryxslayer]

So I finally woke up, so here is my take on the final results:

Statewide, democrats got about 1,037,000 to 1,541,000 reps in the senate and 1,017,000 to 1,538,000 reps in the governors race. Last two senate races were 497,487 to 1,406,648 in 2012, and 510,009 to 1,314,556 in 2014. The 2014 governor race - which was hyped to death for gain whatsoever, was 554,014 to 1,337,875. So, a ration change from about 1:2.5 or 3, to now 1:1.5. So even though dems didn't win (who honestly was expecting this? you should be fired) they did double their primary numbers. Overall, it isn't anything to suggest a huge change in the Texan political lean, but it is enough to continue to justify a Likely R rating for the senate rather than Safe R.

Housewise, the three main house races are all things to write home about on the dem side, though each in their own way. TX 23 is obviously the shining star, what with Hispanic participation in the primary through the roof. Democrats easily trounced Reps here, which bodes well for hispanic activism in the fall. In 2016, dems and reps in TX 23 we about exactly even in the primary totals, with dems beating reps by just 500 votes.  TX-07 and TX-32 are also signs of continued competativeness. For reference,  TX-07 in 2016 was 24,190 votes for the dem to 77,300 votes for the rep in the primary. TX-32 did not have a dem candidate. Both races saw the dems come within a hairs distance of the Rs, which easily signals competative races in the rest of the year. TX-02, TX-06, and TX-21 meanwhile didn't show any signs of upsets in favor of a democratic seat-warmer, so that is something reps can be happy about.

Finally, Dems also have a hispanic problem in the Texas primaries. I hate to use the term "low-info voters," but it is pretty clear from these results across the ticket that south-Texas will always vote for whomever has the most Hispanic-sounding name, even if they are a nobody.

[Oryxslayer]

Why did O Rourke only get 62% against two unknown candidates?

Maybe identity played a part? Beto is white, Sema Hernandez is Latina, and Edward Kimbrough is Black. I could be wrong, though. Just a guess.

This is literally all this is. Beto's name rec is low, so people identity vote. The "Justice Dem" type Sema Hernandez winning Latino blue dog land in South Texas proves this point wonderfully. Kimbrough carried African American areas as well.

Yep, this is pretty much it.



Dallas county - O'Rourke Blue, Kimbrough Green, Hernandez Red.

[Oryxslayer]

 

So here are my IL maps. For the purposes of this analysis, we will only discuss the congressional primary, gubernatorial analysis is  in its thread. Also, I am sorry for the poor quality district map, but since there is no close up black district map, I just grabbed a DRA screenshot and refined it. A yellow cross means that there was no opposition candidate from another party at the time of the primary.

 First off, we see that the distribution of the primary electorate for both parties in 2016, the more comparable election, has a different map than the final one. The share of the electorate was mostly the same as the final result 59/41 D/R in November and 58.5/41.5 in March. However, the distribution was not. The Republican vote is stronger in the suburbs than in the final election, and the democrats have a bunch of soft voters in the deep south of downstate. This trend is still visible in the 2014 election where  dissatisfaction with Pat Quinn, a close R primary, and the building 2014 wave, all resulted in a 2:1 R vote advantage in a Safe D state. Rauner racked up huge margins in the collar counties, and the margins were well around 90% of the voters going R. Meanwhile, in the Quad Cities and the Deep south, dems didn't get blown out of the water and instead even won some solid R counties.

As I discussed in the gubernatorial thread, the fact that the Republicans are probably going to loose their Collar advantage thanks to the dem enthusiasm gap. This will probably flip most of the Clinton counties around the suburbs, and could potentially decide the gubernatorial races. However, on the House level, this means less. Madigan's map neatly divides up the primary vote and gives each of the suburb seats small lesser cities like Aurora and Joliet so as to ensure democratic victory. As the 2016 map shows, despite Republicans winning most of the Collar counties, they lost all of the present Dem seats in the primary.

Like some other states, the primary electorate's results in parts of the state have little influence on the final result. The previously mentioned collars all went for the Dem (expect Il-10) in 2014, despite the R-Primary vote being stronger there. The Dems meanwhile have a consistent base around IL-12, despite losing it in 2014 and not even coming close in 2016. Therefore, if we see some oddities tomorrow, it will probably make sense in the context of a historically R collar and a historically D downstate.

I am confident that the dems will win all of their current seats in Illinois in tomorrows primary. Unless the Rauner v Ives pulls more turnout then the dem contest, the Dem enthusiasm gap should see the democrats maintain winning margins in all their seats. Some of these margins may be smaller or larger then what we expect though, depending on regional biases. IL-17, despite seeing Republicans win most of the rural counties in 2016, still saw the Democrats carry the seat. Therefore, dems should have all 11 seats go blue, with IL-10 and Il-17 being the only ones worth watching.

The Republican seats are more interesting. I am confident that due to the democrats historic primary strength that democrats will carry IL-12, even though the seat is probably beyond number 30 on the path to a majority. IL-06 is more of a tossup. even though I consider this a easier pickup then IL-12, I have a harder time seeing R's lose this seat than IL-12. While the suburban primary strength may dissipate somewhat tomorrow, IL-06 is still a light-R-pack, and grabs a bunch of R territory in these suburbs. IL-14 will easily still go R, it has even more republican parts of the suburbs. IL-13 should also o R, unless there is a huge enthusiasm gap.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is up: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/20/us/elections/results-illinois-primary-elections.html

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is up: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/20/us/elections/results-illinois-primary-elections.html

Bummer, I was hoping for a live precinct map of IL-3.

Did you know that IL charges money to check the county-by-county party registration? While compiled the primary data above, I went searching for this data and...yeah. yes, the state is in a budget hole and needs to nickle and dime themselves to stay afloat, but Like PA put this data on their SoS for free. I wouldn't be surprised if precinct results are  just as hard to obtain. 

[Oryxslayer]

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