Sun Belt vs. Rust Belt (user search)
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  Sun Belt vs. Rust Belt (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sun Belt vs. Rust Belt  (Read 5561 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: March 04, 2017, 02:52:00 PM »

Dems have to double down on both but the key to winning the EC is to flip WI, MI, PA where Trump won by less than 1%, they are easily winnable with the right candidate. The Sun belt will come into play in 10-12 years with a more diverse population & young people coming into the voting bloc.

Dems so far 1 Sen fron OH, 2 from MI, 2 from MN, 1 from WI, 1 from PA, that's 7, you can't make that number easily. The Senate & the WH will be lost for a generation, for atleast 10-12 years.

In the short term, you appeal to the rust belt, pretty indisputable IMO ! Rust Belt voters in Healthcare, Education, Trade (Anti-Free Trade is a classic left wing issue), Infra, Minimum Wage, etc mesh more with the Dem's than with the GOP!

Thing is, it's not hard to see a 2020 scenario where all of those states keep trending and vote for Trump by 5% anyway, like Florida for Bush in 2004.  It's not at all obvious that MI/WI/PA will be closer than FL/GA/NC next time.  It would be really, really bad to spend $50M in Michigan and $500K in Georgia and lose both by 3%.  Democrats have sucked at winning close elections for the past 50 years.  Perhaps it's because they spread themselves too thin trying to be everything to everyone?   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2017, 09:12:20 PM »

Right now, the problem with the Sun Belt strategy is Minnesota.  If they lose Minnesota, they have to win 3 of FL/AZ/NC/GA or flip Texas.  That is a very tall order.  Of course, they can probably use the Sun Belt strategy to flip a few more voters in MSP proper so it's a close call.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2017, 07:33:44 PM »

I think the consensus is that they are more likely to win back the Rust Belt states in 2020, because they need an anomalously weak economy to beat Trump anyway, and economic weakness would be felt more acutely there.  There's also the matter of avoiding a 5+ senate seat loss next year.  On the other hand, if Trump is reasonably popular and 2020 is a lost cause anyway, the Sun Belt strategy is clearly the better one for 2024, particularly if Pence is the nominee.  He has "Republican Hillary" written all over him IMO.
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