It's worth reminding everybody that NOVA almost always reports last in vote counts. So a modest Gillepsie lead pre-NOVA vote dump isn't that unlikely. That being said, if Gillepsie is leading by a ton before NOVA reports, that's bad news for Northam. On the flip side, if Gillepsie is barely holding on pre-NOVA votes or Northam is actually leading, Gillepsie will almost certainly be underperforming his polls by a significant margin.
I remember in 2012 and 2016 the respect DEM prez candidates were rather substantially behind in VA at first...