As I said, Trump's odds of getting 45+ CD wins out of CA have gone up substantially with his NY performance and polling in other urban blue states. Anyone making a best/worst case scenario for him should assume he gets all but 9-15 CA delegates in his best case.
I think a better model for California would be Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky, rather than New York or New Jersey. Cruz definitely has a chance to win it, unlike the northeastern states, but he needs Kasich to leave the race.
CA is so urban now that it isn't really Western in the sense that it was even 40 years ago. It really has little or nothing in common with MO and KY (KY was a caucus anyway and should have been Trump +10-20 in a traditional primary). There was an obvious home state effect for Trump in NY that can't be extrapolated. Right now, I would put IL numbers as the upside scenario for Cruz in CA, with AZ/NV numbers being the downside scenario for Cruz in CA. The former probably results in Trump getting 85-105 delegates, while the latter would be 140-160 delegates for Trump. PA might be a particularly good state to compare to because it has legacy socially moderate-liberal R's in a major city, rural devoutly religious R's and energy/agriculture R's, and all in meaningful numbers.
California doesn't have the equivalent of a Staten Island or even Long Island. It doesn't have anything like the Jersey shore. It doesn't have any area that is like lower Bucks, North East Philly or Delaware County. It doesn't even particularly have a history of moderate Republicans. Sure, there are some around the Bay Area and LA County but most of them are not even registered Republicans anymore. California is the land of Goldwater/Ronald Reagan conservatism. Cruz will do fine here.
Illinois is the best model for California I believe. With the Rubio votes mostly going towards Cruz, that still leaves him short of Trump. I am anticipating around a 5-6 point loss for Cruz if Kasich is still around. If Kasich leaves, I think Cruz will win by a few points. AZ and NV will be a good model for Inland Southern California but not the state as a whole.
