State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[ajc0918]

TX-28 Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/TX/Fort_Bend/100355/web/#/summary

[ajc0918]

Early vote + absentee:
Gates (R) 59%
Markowitz (D) 41%

[ajc0918]

Turnout in this election was like 4% or something. Don't extrapolate.

[ajc0918]

It's Election Day in FL House District 35 which was previously held by a republican but was won by Biden in 2020. Dems went into election day with a 650 voter turnout advantage (D+4.8%). Election day is expected to be heavily GOP and the race is expected to be close.

Both sides have spent over $1.5M+ with the GOP having a spending edge (typical in Florida).

[ajc0918]

Yes, the Dem in Florida underperformed Biden but relative to the partisan composition of the special election he overperformed. In this special election the electorate was 10% more Republican than in 2020, and yet the Democratic candidate only underperformed Biden by ~2.3 points. This is a testament of getting friendly NPAs out to vote.




https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-150-democrats-flip-fl-house

[ajc0918]

Trump +1 district, by the way. So the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.

IVF and abortion issues are so toxic for republicans. They want to ban IVF and outlaw contraception which doesn't sit well with most (sane) voters.