Novak: Clinton CA lead is mirage

[Sam Spade]

There aren't very many blacks in CA anymore... 

[Sam Spade]

what's the best Obama can realistically do in CA?  within 5-10%?

Obama needs to win.  Don't think it's impossible, but it's going to be difficult.

[Sam Spade]

what's the best Obama can realistically do in CA?  within 5-10%?

Obama needs to win.  Don't think it's impossible, but it's going to be difficult.

isn't it P15?  if he loses by five I don't think it's a disaster...  the rest of the month is slightly favorable to him IMO if he can stay viable...

Of course, the rest of the month looks better for him, but a win in California would keep momentum going from Super Tuesday, where I suspect Clinton easily bests him in an actual count of delegates.

He wants something good to come out of Tuesday, not the headline of Clinton wins in the big states (except for the one he's already expected to win).  That's what it will be otherwise.

[Sam Spade]

what's the best Obama can realistically do in CA?  within 5-10%?

Obama needs to win.  Don't think it's impossible, but it's going to be difficult.

isn't it P15?  if he loses by five I don't think it's a disaster...  the rest of the month is slightly favorable to him IMO if he can stay viable...

where I suspect Clinton easily bests him in an actual count of delegates.

Huh? Ambinder and other pundits have predicted a close outcome in this category... Why are you assuming Obama will be crushed among delegates?

Maybe I'm doing my math wrong (and I might be).  Let's wait until after tomorrow, when polls start arriving. 

The point that I think we would agree on is that Obama needs to, at minimum, be closer to Clinton after Super Tuesday, than before.  And he needs to win CA, IMHO.

[Sam Spade]

what's the best Obama can realistically do in CA?  within 5-10%?

Obama needs to win.  Don't think it's impossible, but it's going to be difficult.

isn't it P15?  if he loses by five I don't think it's a disaster...  the rest of the month is slightly favorable to him IMO if he can stay viable...

where I suspect Clinton easily bests him in an actual count of delegates.

Huh? Ambinder and other pundits have predicted a close outcome in this category... Why are you assuming Obama will be crushed among delegates?

The point that I think we would agree on is that Obama needs to, at minimum, be closer to Clinton after Super Tuesday, than before.  And he needs to win CA, IMHO.

If Obama  accomplishes the former, the race will remain frozen, with Hillary holding a slight, but steady lead. If he achieves the latter....

Slight and steady means she wins the nomination...  Just FYI.  

[Sam Spade]

Obama can perform well in Texas because Indys can vote there, but he must get them to show.  Otherwise, the Hispanics will do to him what they've been doing in CA.

OH and PA, I agree.

[Sam Spade]

There aren't very many blacks in CA anymore... 

There aren't many blacks in NV relative to Hispanics yet each comprised 15% of the Democratic vote in the caucuses. Incidentally, Obama performed somewhat better among Hispanics (26%) than Hillary did among blacks (14%)

That said, I do expect Hispanics to be much more sizeable constituency in CA's Democratic primary

Dave

Problem, Dave:

Nevada:  Blacks 6.6%, Hispanics 19.7%
California:  Blacks 6.4%, Hispanics 32.4%, Asians 10.8%

Same amount of blacks, nearly twice as many Hispanics, and the Asian vote to throw in.

Also, those numbers are probably more for Hispanics and Asians and less for blacks than when they were conducted in 2000/2004.

[Sam Spade]

Obama can perform well in Texas because Indys can vote there, but he must get them to show.  Otherwise, the Hispanics will do to him what they've been doing in CA.

OH and PA, I agree.

But will Hispanics show up?  Jay Cost: "The Nevada entrance poll found that African Americans and Hispanics each comprised 15% of the total electorate. But Nevada as a whole is 6.6% African American, and 19.7% Hispanic."

If that pattern repeats itself in TX, Obama has a strong shot. Would you agree that Obama will win in Austin and Houston?

Obama would definitely win Austin.  Houston and Dallas - possibly, but I'm less sure.  Of course, he'll get killed in San Antonio, El Paso and along the border.  Not to mention east Texas (except for the Beaumont/Port Arthur area).  The rest of Texas doesn't do much Dem voting.

The other difference between Texas and Nevada is that Texas will be a primary, and second, all of the primary elections will be held that day.

But, to summarize, he can win Texas.  But he would need massive Indy turnout.

FYI, Texas black population is 11.3%.  Hispanic population is 32.0%.  They probably would cancel each other out, I suspect.

[Sam Spade]

There aren't very many blacks in CA anymore... 

There aren't many blacks in NV relative to Hispanics yet each comprised 15% of the Democratic vote in the caucuses. Incidentally, Obama performed somewhat better among Hispanics (26%) than Hillary did among blacks (14%)

That said, I do expect Hispanics to be much more sizeable constituency in CA's Democratic primary

Dave

Problem, Dave:

Nevada:  Blacks 6.6%, Hispanics 19.7%
California:  Blacks 6.4%, Hispanics 32.4%, Asians 10.8%

Same amount of blacks, nearly twice as many Hispanics, and the Asian vote to throw in.

Also, those numbers are probably more for Hispanics and Asians and less for blacks than when they were conducted in 2000/2004.

sh**t, more Hispanics than I thought

Dave

Oddly enough, Obama probably stands a better chance in Arizona, because even though the geezer vote is larger and the Hispanics are about the same, and there are no blacks - the Hispanics tend to vote more Republican (go figure).